UK Local Elections : May 1st 2008

[Harry Hayfield]

UK National Vote Share Projection

The following data comes from the Parliamentary Research Paper for the years in question

2004: Con 38% (n/c) Lib Dems 29% (+3%) Lab 26% (-4%) Others 7% (+1%). Swing from Con to Lib Dem: 1.5%

2000: Con 38% (+9%) Lab 30% (-13%) Lib Dems 26% (+2%) Others 6% (+2%). Swing from Lab to Con: 11%

1996: Lab 43% (+13%) Con 29% (-17%) Lib Dem 24% (+4%) Others 4% (n/c). Swing from Con to Lab: 15%

1992: Con 46% (+7%) Lab 30% (-8%) Lib Dem 20% (+2%) Others 4% (-1%). Swing from Lab to Con: 7.5%

1988: Con 39% (+1%) Lab 38% (+1%) Lib Dem 18% (-3%) Others 5% (+1%). Neglible swing from Con to Lab

1984: Con 38% (-2%) Lab 37% (-5%) All 21% (+8%) Others 4% (-1%). Swing from Lab to Con: 1.5%

1980: Con 40% Lab 42% All 13% Others 5%

Average Vote Share 1980 - 2004
Conservatives 38%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrats 22%
Others 5%

[Harry Hayfield]

Well, here is one bit of local election data that can't be dismissed.

Ceredigion Local Elections 1987 - 2004
Districts 1987
Non Party Independent 9,637 (39.46%) winning 21 seats (13 unopposed)
Alliance 7,343 (30.05%) winning 14 seats (5 unopposed)
Independents 2,835 (11.60%) winning 3 seats (0 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 1,871 (7.66%) winning 4 seats (1 unopposed)
Labour 1,739 (7.12%) winning 2 seats (0 unopposed)
Green 994 (4.07%) winnig 0 seats
Council Composition: NPI 21 All 14 Plaid 4 Ind 3 Lab 2
No Overall Control: NPI short by 2

Counties 1989
Plaid Cymru 5,350 (27.90%) winning 2 seats (Aber North, Llanbadarn Fawr)
Labour 4,495 (23.44%) winning 2 seats (Aber South, Lampeter)
Liberal Demcrats 3,891 (20.29%) winning 2 seats (Llansantffraid, Ystwyth)
Independents 3,842 (20.04%) winning 5 seats (Aberporth, Cardigan, Beulah, Borth, Lledrod (unopposed))
Non Party Independents 1173 (6.11%) winning 3 seats (Llandysiliogogo, Llandyfriog, Llanfihangel Ystrad (all unopposed)
Green 419 (2.18%) winning 0 seats
Ceredigion Delegation: Plaid 2 Lab 2 Lib Dem 2 Ind 5 NPI 3

(Districts 1991, Unitaries 1995, 1999, 2004 and Counties 1993 to follow)

[Harry Hayfield]

Districts 1991
Independents 9,030 (42.85%) winning 13 seats (6 unopposed)
Non Party Independents 4,113 (19.51%) winning 18 seats (13 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 3,004 (14.25%) winning 9 seats (4 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 2,538 (12.04%) winning 3 seats
Labour 1,728 (8.20%) winning 1 seat
Farmer 534 (2.53%)
Green 125 (0.59%)
Council Composition: NPI 18 Ind 13 Lib Dem 9 PC 3 Lab 1
NPI short by 5

Counties 1993
Plaid Cymru 5,311 (35.35%) winning 3 seats (Aber North, Borth, Llandysilogogo)
Liberal Democrats 4,068 (27.08%) winning 4 seats (Aber South, Llanbadarn Fawr, Llanfihangel Ystrad, Ystwyth)
Independents 4,009 (26.68%) winning 6 seats (Aberporth, Cardigan, Beulah, Llandyfriog, Llansantffraed, Lledrod)
Labour 1,633 (10.87%) winning 1 seat (Lampeter)

[Harry Hayfield]

Top % Vote Gainers Past Independent / Unoffical Party Candidates
General Election 1983
Hogarth (Ind Con, Bournemouth East) 3,644 (7.73%)
O'Halloran (Ind Lab, Islington North) 4,091 (11.06%)
Pine (Ind Lib All, Liverpool, Broadgreen) 7,021 (15.26%)

General Election 1987
Board (Ind Con, Windsor and Maidenhead) 1,938 (3.24%)
Marshall (Moderate Lab, Mansfield) 1,580 (3.02%)

General Election 1992
Furness (Ind Con, Hove) 2,658 (5.31%)
Nellist (Ind Lab, Coventry South East) 10,551 (28.87%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Unitaries 1995
Independents 8,352 (38.72%) winning 26 Seats (11 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 6,225 (28.85%) winning 6 seats (0 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 5,788 (26.83%) winning 11 seats (1 unopposed)
Greens 886 (4.10%) winning 0 seats
Labour 319 (1.47%) winning 1 seat
Council Composition: Ind 26 Lib Dem 11 PC 6 Lab 1
Ind GAIN from NOC with a majority of 8

Unitaries 1999
Independents 11,384 (40.70%) winning 22 seats (8 unopposed)
Plaid Cymru 10,722 (38.34%) winning 14 seats (1 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 4,837 (17.29%) winning 7 seats (5 unopposed)
Labour 1,021 (3.65%) winning 1 seat
Council Composition: Ind 22 PC 14 Lib Dem 7 Lab 1
Ind LOSS to NOC: Ind HOLD on mayor's casting vote

Unitaries 2004
* Boundary Changes
Plaid Cymru 10,198 (38.91%) winning 16 seats (3 unopposed)
Independents 7,707 (29.41%) winning 16 seats (1 unopposed)
Liberal Democrats 5,291 (20.19%) winning 9 seats (1 unopposed)
Llais Ceredigion 1,096 (4.18%) winning 0 seats
Non Party Independents 957 (3.65%) winning 0 seats
Labour 785 (2.99%) winning 1 seat
United Kingdom Independence Party 96 (0.36%) winning 0 seats
Greens 48 (0.18%) winning 0 seats
Conservatives 26 (0.09%) winning 0 seats
No Overall Control: Ind, Lib Dem, Lab coalition in control

Changes since 2004
Alan Wilson (Ind, Teifi) defected to Plaid Cymru at the close of nominations
David Evans (Ind, Llangeitho) defected to Plaid Cymru at the close of nominations
Iain Sheldon (UKIP for Ciliau Aeron) defected to Veritas in 2005, and is now standing as Independent

[Harry Hayfield]

This story (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7367063.stm) is interesting for one reason only; where they were going. Brown to Swansea, Cameron to the Vale. Both visits are agressive rather than defensive and the choices are interesting.

Indeed, Swansea is a top Lib Dem target and if the Conservatives don't win the Vale of Glamorgan from NOC, then Cameron will not be as good as the polls say

[Harry Hayfield]

May I be permitted to produce a list of Lib Dem and Plaid Cymru targets for Ceredigion?

[Harry Hayfield]

Liberal Democrat Targets
1: Trefeurig (Plaid): 9.45%
2: Llanfihangel Ystrad (Plaid): 10.95%
3: Lampeter (Lab): 21.00%
4: Tirmynach (Plaid): 21.54%
5: Aberystwyth, Bronglais (Plaid): 21.63%
6: Aberystwyth, Penparcau (Ind): 22.50%
7: Llangybi (Plaid): 22.88%
8: Ceulanamaesmawr (Plaid): 24.48%
9: Llanfarian (Plaid): 25.84% (NB: Councillor elected as Ind in 2004)
10: Llandyfriog (Plaid): 26.21%
11: Llanbadarn Fawr, Padarn (Plaid): 27.20%
12: Ciliau Aeron (Ind): 24.67%
13: Penbryn (Plaid): 32.01% (Lib Dems gain overall control)
14: Aberaeron (Ind): 33.63%
15: Beulah (Plaid): 36.53%
16: Llanbadarn Fawr, Sulien (Plaid): 38.27%
17: Llanwenog (Plaid): 50.00%

[Harry Hayfield]

Plaid Cymru targets
1: Cardigan, Rhydyfwuch (Lib Dem): 2.32%
2: Aberystwyth North (Lib Dem): 2.58%
3: Ciliau Aeron (Ind): 4.60%
4: Cardigan, Mwdlan (Ind): 8.67% (Plaid gain overall control)
5: Faenor (Lib Dem): 8.75%
6: Melindwr (Lib Dem): 10.20%
7: Lampeter (Lab): 12.50%
8: Aberystwyth Central (Lib Dem): 18.36%
9: Aberystwyth, Penparcau (Ind): 20.00%
10: Aberystwyth, Rheidol (Lib Dem): 26.12%
11: Cardigan, Teifi (Ind): 29.86%
12: Lledrod (Ind): 34.07%
13: Penparc (Ind): 39.32%
14: Llandysul Town (Ind): 50.00%
15: Ystwyth (Lib Dem):50.00%

[Harry Hayfield]

The campaign manager for the Lib Dems in Ceredigion has just phoned me and said that due to a complaint by Plaid Cymru, all candidates are now being asked to gather at the main count centre at 10.30pm instead of 9.30pm. Does anyone have a clue about what Plaid may have complained about?