Early look at the Libertarian Party nomination (user search)

Quote from: sparkey on February 19, 2018, 06:56:35 PM

They're Running

((((((Adam Kokesh)))))): Anarcho-capitalist talk show host and activist who has already filed. Popular with radicals but controversial generally due to his extreme positions and tendency to get jailed, he should pull supporters of Darryl W. Perry and could even win in a weak field.
Zoltan Istvan: Author, pop philosopher, and 2018 CA Gov. candidate who has already indicated in an interview that he plans to run for the LP's Presidential nomination in 2020. A heterodox moderate with a very strong focus on transhumanism. Although I like him, I suspect him to be regarded with suspicion as a self-promoter and not as dedicated to libertarianism as he is to transhumanism. He could shake up the race and attract similar support as McAfee in 2016.

They're Considering

Bill Weld: Former Governor of Massachusetts and 2016 VP candidate who has indicated in an interview that he hasn't ruled out running. Although perhaps the highest profile politician the LP could ask for, many in the party believe he ran a poor campaign in 2016 and is too moderate. He's also getting up there in age, in his mid 70s. Although he'd be the favorite in a field of others with no political experience, he could easily be overtaken by a less experienced rival.
Mary Ruwart: Author, scientist, and 2008 LP nomination runner-up, who has been profiled by Salon.com (of all places) as a possible 2020 candidate. Her softspoken demeanor is the opposite of Kokesh, but her policies are closer to his than to Weld's, so she would likely pull mainly from radicals, but with more crossover appeal than Kokesh. Old controversies about some of her more extreme positions would certainly resurface if she runs again. She will be in her 70s.
Larry Sharpe: Business consultant, 2016 VP nomination runner-up, and candidate for NY Governor. Has indicated that he wants a non-ex-GOP candidate in 2020 and could fit the bill himself. Very popular inside of the party, although not well known outside of it and lacking experience, he's a bit of a wild card. He certainly overperformed in the 2016 VP nomination race.

They're Plausible Recruits

Andrew Napolitano: Former Judge and talk show host, he will almost certain be recruited by paleolibertarians hoping for another Ron Paul. Considering his limited experience in electoral politics, he is liked enough by every wing of the party that he could easily win the nomination over more-qualified candidates. His inability to shy away from controversy could haunt him if he ran, though. He is already 67.
Tom Woods: Author and commentator, he could be an alternative to Napolitano for paleolibertarians looking for a representative. Previously skeptical of the party, he has lately been pushing for a "Mises Caucus," indicating an interest in stepping into LP politics. He doesn't have the crossover appeal of Napolitano, but doesn't lack charisma or knowledge. I'm not sure how well he would do.
Tom Campbell: Former Congressman from CA, whose mention as a possible Supreme Court pick by Gary Johnson reminded everybody that he was a bit libertarian-leaning. Certainly on the moderate side, and without party support, he seems more like a possible Weld VP pick than anything. He will be a little on the old side (late 60s).
Jeff Flake: Retiring Senator from AZ, he has indicated that he has not ruled out a run for the Presidency, but no indication yet of switching to the LP. He is very friendly with the libertarian Reason Foundation, but is definitely more moderate/conservative than the party as a whole. Nonetheless, he could be an attractive candidate as a bridge between Johnson 2016 and McMullin 2016 supporters, who could even offer putting Utah in play.
((((((Mark Cuban)))))): Businessman, he apparently appreciated when LP activists attempted to recruit him into the 2016 race. As with many of the bigger names, he is not such a dedicated libertarian as party activists might like, but since he's been speculated in the past and hasn't ruled anything out, he's worth mentioning.

They're Fantasy Recruits

Justin Amash: He seems to be on every list of possible LP candidates, and there may be no better possibility than him. But I think he must have a future GOP run in mind instead.
Thomas Massie: Similar to Justin Amash, although I see him gunning for higher office in KY instead, eventually.
Rand Paul: I don't see him bolting to the LP in 2020 if he didn't in 2016.
Ron Paul: He has rejoined the LP, but I don't see any eagerness on his part to return to running for office. He is already in his 80s.
Jesse Ventura: Come on, Jesse never decides to run.

They're Not Running

Gary Johnson: He's done. He gave it his best shot, and look at how you all treated him.
John McAfee: Running for President and seeing all the infighting soured him to the LP and politics in general.
Austin Petersen: He has switched to the GOP to run for Senate in Missouri, and it would be switching back and forth too quickly to immediately bolt back to the LP.
Darryl W. Perry: He has indicated a willingness to step aside and endorse Kokesh.
Joe Walsh: The former Congressman once indicated that he'd like to run for the LP nod, but that was assuming that Clinton won in 2016. He loves Trump too much to run against him.

They're Also-Rans

Steve Kerbel: Businessman and party activist from Colorado, he gave it a shot in 2016 and was considered a good debater, but had to step out due to health concerns. Likely to be an also-ran again if he tries again.
Cecil Ince: One of the weakest candidates in 2016, he has filed to run again in 2020 already. He at least made it to a state party debate, although he didn't perform well.
Joe Exotic: Already announced as an LP candidate, lucky us!
There are 7 other candidates who I haven't heard of who have already filed with the FEC to run for President as Libertarians.

Links

Feel free to add sources or your own speculation.

I get bad vibes about Zoltan Istvan. He's definitely an interesting candidate for the LNC but beyond that, he'd probably have a humiliating performance on the national level. He's greatly educated and highly interesting on transhumanism, but besides that, he seems to miss the point a lot.

I think (((Adam Kokesh))) represents the Libertarian Party and Libertarian philosophy far greater. He could even pull a handful of voters away from Trump, honestly - given Kokesh's connections to the Tea Party/Alex Jones wing of the Trump Republicans.

The party has taken a bit of a left-lean since Trump has come into office, but I think Adam is the best candidate to really unite everyone and push a mainstream campaign against the State in 2020.

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