PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,236
Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57
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« on: June 02, 2017, 05:10:19 PM » |
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Pretty sure either Democrat would be slightly if not moderately favored over Gillespie. True, Gillespie has name recognition, but I've been in Northern VA recently, (VA-10 and VA-08) and Trump is utterly despised there. Unless Gillespie somehow distances himself from Trump while not turning off the Republican base, I don't see how he'd win. Also, I'm thinking Perriello would at least over-perform in SW and Southside VA, while Northam would over-perform in Tidewater. Something like a 52-48 D win. The house of delegates also stays in R control with a significantly lower majority.
Any Democrat (most likely Murphy in this case) would be favored in New Jersey, due to the national environment and NJ's strong D lean. We're talking a win in the high 50s. I kind of doubt Murphy will break 60% though. Ds also get a supermajority in both houses.
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