What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election) (user search)

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What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election) (search mode)

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Poll

Question:

Which states are likely to elect the opposite party of their incumbent senator in 2018?

#1 Arizona		24 (51.1%)
#2 California		2 (4.3%)
#3 Connecticut		1 (2.1%)
#4 Delaware		1 (2.1%)
#5 Florida		5 (10.6%)
#6 Hawaii		1 (2.1%)
#7 Indiana		26 (55.3%)
#8 Maine		0 (0%)
#9 Maryland		2 (4.3%)
#10 Massachusetts		2 (4.3%)
#11 Michigan		4 (8.5%)
#12 Minnesota		1 (2.1%)
#13 Mississippi		1 (2.1%)
#14 Missouri		24 (51.1%)
#15 Montana		8 (17%)
#16 Nebraska		1 (2.1%)
#17 Nevada		35 (74.5%)
#18 New Jersey		1 (2.1%)
#19 New Mexico		2 (4.3%)
#20 New York		1 (2.1%)
#21 North Dakota		22 (46.8%)
#22 Ohio		7 (14.9%)
#23 Pennsylvania		3 (6.4%)
#24 Rhode Island		1 (2.1%)
#25 Tennessee		1 (2.1%)
#26 Texas		3 (6.4%)
#27 Utah		3 (6.4%)
#28 Vermont		1 (2.1%)
#29 Virginia		1 (2.1%)
#30 Washington		1 (2.1%)
#31 West Virginia		8 (17%)
#32 Wisconsin		8 (17%)
#33 Wyoming		2 (4.3%)

Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 47

Calculate results by number of options selected

Author

Topic: What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election) (Read 4444 times)

PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member

Posts: 2,236

Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Re: What states do you think will vote for a different party? (2018 Senate election)

« on: June 05, 2017, 08:45:01 AM »

Hard to say at this time, but I went with Missouri, Nevada, and Arizona, in that order. McCaskill isn't particularly popular, is the last elected Democrat to statewide office, and the state took another sharp right in 2016. The factors that could save her though are Jason Kander's strong showing in 2016, incumbancy, and the national environment.

I put Heller next because his popularity is about on par with McCaskill, Nevada voted for Hillary Clinton, and national environment. Though Democrats don't have a particularly strong bench here.

Flake is probably also in danger because he's a Trump critic, and never endorsed him, which might turn off Trump voters and a primary will probably damage him if not lose him renomination. Add to the fact that Arizona is trending D, and he could be in trouble. The only factor that could save him is that Democrats don't have a particularly good bench here either. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema appears to be dragging her feet on whether to run.

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