2020 = 1992?

[dw93]

No, because I don't think a third party candidate will have the impact that Ross Perot had on the '92 election, as the country is much more polarized now and people saying yes to this poll don't seem to realize that. Had the big eared billionaire not run, 1992 would've been a closer race, but one that Bill Clinton still would've won none the less (I've said it once and I'll say it again, PEROT WAS NOT A SPOILER!!!) Plus, Bush 41 was running for a fourth consecutive term for his party, something that no party was able to pull off since the 1940s, whereas Trump (or someone else) will be running for a second consecutive term for the GOP in 2020.

I think worst case for the GOP, is that 2020 will be 1932 (which was pretty much the reverse of 1980), and this is whether Trump is still in office or not, as Pence will still have the stink of Trump on him and would most likely still see a primary challenge. If there is a third party candidate, they will see Johnson or Nader levels of support and won't effect the overall outcome at all.

Best case for the GOP, this will be 2004. They pick up one or two more states, Minnesota and New Hampshire, based on the 2016 margins , seem the most likely and possibly narrowly win the popular vote. I personally see a GOP victory in 2020 as  2012 parties reversed where they do worse in the electoral college and the popular vote but still win none the less, in which case all hell would probably break lose as the Dems would probably win the popular vote by more than 3 Million votes in this scenario.

[dw93]

Johnson or Nader levels of support and won't effect the overall outcome at all.

Nader was a spoiler in FL and NH. Johnson and Stein might have been spoilers in FL, MI, WI, and PA.

Agreed with Nader in 2000, he didn't have any impact on 2004 though. I personally don't think Johnson and Stein were spoilers though.