MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

So I took the recent poll apart by Demographics, and put it back together with what the likely actual Demographics will be, and Claire McCaskill is leading by 6% under the most conservative estimations possible.

Wow it's only January and people are already seeking to 'unbias' the polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Was about to post this.

It'll probably help Hawley...

It was also probably designed to help Hawley.

Maybe this was the deal he made with the State GOP in order to stay in office?

There's no way he's surviving this - too much mud, and the state legislature was never on good terms with their governor in the first place. More likely is some organization like the GOP senate campaign team told him to do this to help out the team over anything else.

[Oryxslayer]

The MOGOP nudged Wagner aside for this guy?

Nah, she turned it down via First right of refusal because of the Wave potential.

[Oryxslayer]

Politico: GOP golden boy mails it in

Essentially Josh Hawley doesn't like to campaign. He's been skipping debates and county Lincoln Day dinners across the state. Plus:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Makes sense, he will just be asked about Greitens which is a question without a answer. Hawley wants to avoid the fact the tgis race might end up as McCaskill v Greitens, but it will probably still happen without his involvement.

[Oryxslayer]

There now is a bandaid over the wound, reps now just need to survive the media coverage over the court/legal side of this issue as Gretiens now stands as a former governor before a judge. But that is much easier to survive then an active scandal in the governors mansion.

EDIT - https://twitter.com/AP/status/1001589657405218816

Looks like this resignation was part of the deal with the courts, so that part might also have  been dealt with.

[Oryxslayer]

Are a lot of the Republican voters in Missouri hardcore MAGA til the end types or are most more reasonable?  Just doing a quick search of McCaskill on twitter and every other post is some MAGA person talking total crazy trash about McCaskill. (same regarding Donnelly in IN)

If you're posting your voting opinion on twitter, chances are you are not a swing voter.