State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Checking Ballotopdia Zyzz gives us:

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/9/9e/OK_HD_028.JPG

OK HD 28

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/6/6c/OK_SD_44.JPG

OK SD 44

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/88/OK_HD_075.JPG

OK HD 75

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/86/OK_HD_046.JPG

OK HD 46, which was tonight.

They all appear to be relatively close to the cities, and are at least anchored by an urban /suburban core. Even HD 28 which dems barely lost is close to Oklahoma City.

[Oryxslayer]

We can call the other 4 WA leg races now:

Legislative District 7 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Shelly Short(Prefers Republican Party)
1,324   69.54%
Karen Hardy(Prefers Democratic Party)
580   30.46%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   1,904   

Legislative District 7 - State Representative Pos. 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jacquelin Maycumber(Prefers Republican Party)
1,338   70.38%
Susan Swanson(Prefers Democratic Party)
563   29.62%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   1,901   

Legislative District 31 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Phil Fortunato(Prefers Republican Party)
9,601   57.06%
Michelle Rylands(Prefers Democratic Party)
7,224   42.94%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   16,825   

Legislative District 31 - State Representative Pos. 2County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Morgan Irwin(Prefers Republican Party)
9,461   57.11%
Nate Lowry(Prefers Democratic Party)
7,106   42.89%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   16,567   

Have you got the numbers form the Michigan race - I didn't see them but its getting late so I just might have missed them.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate District 10 in Wisconsin will have a special election on Tuesday, January 16, 2018.

Is this a competitive seat?

Looks like it is pretty much Burnett + Polk + Saint Croix + Pierce. When I think of this region of Wisconsin I think of Twin Cities Exurbs, but perhaps someone with a better knowledge of the state can educate us of the situation on the ground.

[Oryxslayer]

well, we don't know where these precincts are reporting form (Dem/Pub leaning areas) so don't get your hopes up....yet...

[Oryxslayer]

14 votes.

This is more intense than election night 2016.

More intense then VA HD 94, currently decided by 10 votes and looking to decide whether the HoD is tied 50-50?

[Oryxslayer]

31 votes. Well, as I said just a couple posts ago - it's not the closest race currently outstanding nationally, but it is close.

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, Obama barely won this seats current lines in 2008, Romney won it in 2012, and Trump blew Clinton away here in 2016. Clinton only won three towns, River Falls City, Menomonie City, and Hudson City. Any dem gains in any shape or form are gains in the margin.

I personally think it will be hard for a dem to win a seat that is a mix of Twin City exurbs/Rurals, but we will see how big the swing is.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

It is certainly the most stunning normal special election since 2016. I would say Alabama definitely tops anything else, and probably the Oklahoma crazies were more wilder due to the number of scandals going on in that state. But in terms of simple D v R without any real abnormal overarching theme - oh hell yeah this is the craziest. Exurbs + rurals with a huge D swing. Wow.

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

[Oryxslayer]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

I wouldn't get too hopeful about PA-18. It's a pretty tough race. I'm expecting Saccone to win by 9%.

Me too, I'm thinking ~7% though. We will see a crazy swing though...

[Oryxslayer]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

More rain in NOVA I presume?

[Oryxslayer]

97% in, the Republican did manage to hit a quarter of the vote:

35th Legislative District County Breakdown
Davis, Austin
(DEM)
74.15%
    Votes: 3,046
Walker-Montgomery, Fawn
(REP)
25.85%
    Votes: 1,062

Clinton won the seat 58-39. With only two precincts not reporting, we can probably say that there has been ~12-14% swing between the two parties, for ~25% net. PA-18 is R+11...

[Oryxslayer]

Final Margin:

Austin Davis (D): 73.5% (3159)
Fawn Walker-Montgomery (R): 26.1% (1124)

Presidential margin: Clinton +19
Special election margin: Davis +47
28 point swing left.

DEM HOLD

PA-18 voted Trump+20. It is R+11, and this is a 14 point swing left. Consistent with a slight dem pickup, at least, right now.

[Oryxslayer]

How red are these districts?

Really non-Atlas Red. Any Dem hopes tonight really ride on how much people dislike Greintens right now.

[Oryxslayer]

we also have what I take is the early vote?

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           0 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   3   18.750%
Mike Revis   Democratic   13   81.250%
    Total Votes:   16   

[Oryxslayer]

State Representative - District 129 - unexpired           8 of 18 Precincts Reported
Jeff Knight   Republican   860   65.850%
Ronna Ford   Democratic   446   34.150%
    Total Votes:   1,306   

State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           10 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican   724   38.531%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   1,155   61.469%
    Total Votes:   1,879   
!!!!!!!!!!

[Oryxslayer]

State Representative - District 39 - unexpired           14 of 37 Precincts Reported
Peggy McGaugh   Republican   768   56.595%
Ethan C. Perkinson   Democratic   589   43.405%
    Total Votes:   1,357   

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           0 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   3   18.750%
Mike Revis   Democratic   13   81.250%
    Total Votes:   16   

State Representative - District 129 - unexpired           17 of 18 Precincts Reported
Jeff Knight   Republican   1,845   68.435%
Ronna Ford   Democratic   851   31.565%
    Total Votes:   2,696   
            

tate Representative - District 144 - unexpired           17 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican   1,400   47.329%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   1,558   52.671%
    Total Votes:   2,958   
            

[Oryxslayer]

129 is now done

State Representative - District 129 - unexpired           18 of 18 Precincts Reported
Jeff Knight   Republican   2,153   69.095%
Ronna Ford   Democratic   963   30.905%
    Total Votes:   3,116   
            

[Oryxslayer]

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           10 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   1,679   48.442%
Mike Revis   Democratic   1,787   51.558%
    Total Votes:   3,466   

Big Swing

[Oryxslayer]

On the other side of the coin, i'm fairly confident we can call 39 for team R:

State Representative - District 39 - unexpired           27 of 37 Precincts Reported
Peggy McGaugh   Republican   1,636   65.650%
Ethan C. Perkinson   Democratic   856   34.350%
    Total Votes:   2,492   

[Oryxslayer]

Swings from 2016 in the completed seats:


MO-97 - 61 - 33 Trump, 51.6 - 48.4 Revis(D)
             Swing from 28-point margin to 1.6 Dem, or a 29.6 point swing to the left D+15 net
MO-129 - 80 - 16 Trump, 69 - 31 Knight(R)
             Swing from 64-point margin to a 38 point one, a 26 point swing left or D+13 net

[Oryxslayer]

Swings from 2016 in the completed seats:


MO-97 - 61 - 33 Trump, 51.6 - 48.4 Revis(D)
             Swing from 28-point margin to 1.6 Dem, or a 29.6 point swing to the left D+15 net
MO-129 - 80 - 16 Trump, 69 - 31 Knight(R)
             Swing from 64-point margin to a 38 point one, a 26 point swing left or D+13 net

District 39 is now done as well:


Edit:

MO-39 - 71 - 24 Trump, 64 - 36 McGaugh(R)
             Swing from a 47-point win to a 28 point victory, only a 19 point swing left, or D+9.5 net

[Oryxslayer]

Scaggs is only up by 68 votes now

Nothing has changed since last update...

[Oryxslayer]

So did Democrats win any of these?

One, HD 97. Go back a few pages to check out the post-by-post action on the topic.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, the SoS Finally updated.

State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           44 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican           2,998   52.624%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   2,699   47.376%
    Total Votes:   5,697