Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[Oryxslayer]

Is the CAQ losing support to the QS?

Important to note that the last time Ipsos polled was in August, so I think these results are more just a combination of all the September activities. September saw the CAQ drop in favor of PLQ and PQ.

Also, where are my weekly pollsters- mainstreet, Leger, etc? Since debate three, the only polls released have been a new pollster with no past results to compare it to, and this, which just captures the September movement. I want to know the effects of debate three!

[Oryxslayer]

I have been taking a look around at media and it appears everyone is warning of a minority government or how the New Brunswick election results have raised the topic of non-FPTP SMD systems to the forefront. However, I suspect we are all underselling just how geographically packed the Lib vote is, and how far the Libs have fallen with Francos compared to 2014. Last night I created a swing model but used the Franco/Allo numbers, compared them to 2014, and then plugged in that tied Ipsos poll.

Well, the results are bleak. Despite a tied topline, CAP are 5 seats from a majority, and I suspect that's undershooting them for two reasons. One, the PQ vote is collapsing unequally. Its more in favor of to QS on the island, and more towards CAQ in the rest of the province. Two, CAQ did horribly in the periphery in 2014, places like Bas-Saint-Laurent and Côte-Nord. PQ was the only Non-Lib horse to back in hose places last time, but now I suspect the CAQ are going to break through.

[Oryxslayer]

So it looks like late deciders are breaking CAQ. Didn't someone say that the PLQ usually gets a late boost because swing voters end up put off by the PQs separatist rhetoric? If so, then that is another difference between the old days and 2018.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean, on those franco numbers it seems like PLQ are going to get completely obliterated outside of Montréal/Laval/the South shore?

Don't forget Outaouais.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1046515777333915648

I hope they are overestimating the CAQ. I don't think I can bear the thought of 4 years of a CAQ majority.

Well when the CAQ has 13 point lead with Francophones (20 points over PLQ) and >100 of 125 seats are overwhelmingly Francophone...its not hard to see how the CAQ easily get their majority. Though it is really down to the marginal seats now about whether its a CAQ majority or minority - and there are a lot of them.

[Oryxslayer]

Rumor of breaking news: NAFTA renegotiation finalized, dairy barriers to be lowered.


Political fallout?

Probably hurts the Lib's, since they are the incumbent government who 'allowed this to happen,' despite having little to no influence over negotiations. Lisée for example earlier today argued that the PLQ oversaw another sacrifice of Quebec for the good of Ontario.

[Oryxslayer]

Wish I could give a dispatch on the ground, but I'm volunteering with David Birnbaum, who will win 80%+ of the vote (most PLQ riding in the whole province). The mood here is a restrained optimism about the overall result, which is interesting...

Interesting since the libs really are locked out of govt formation this time around, its really just a contest of CAQ minority or majority. But Montreal is a PLQ bubble, so what your seeing probably doesn't match the rest of the province.

[Oryxslayer]

snip

Great list! I would add Huntingdon to this count of seats to watch (another southern Border seat). I also think that a CAQ majority probably has to go through at least one of Labelle/Joliette - two seats the PQ have really tried to save this campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction from this morning was tossup/tied pop vote, CAQ majority of 65-70. Probably going to update that pop vote prediction to CAQ lead of 1-2.

[Oryxslayer]

CAQ doing surprisingly well on Laval.

[Oryxslayer]

Already projected CAQ govt.

[Oryxslayer]

CAQ majority

[Oryxslayer]

PQ definitely heading for unofficial party.

Also, that Four way seat in Sherbrooke is now Orange.

[Oryxslayer]

QS going back and forth in a few ridings with the PLQ and CAQ. Results generally match the pre-election seat projections, but the CAQ are leading in some unexpected areas, and losing in a few areas they expected to win.

Oh and Papineau called for CAQ. THAT is historic.

[Oryxslayer]

Right now PQ at 11, QS at 10, not bad for the minors (lol PQ a minor) if it holds.

[Oryxslayer]

Lisée continues to blame QS, claiming that the Sovereigntists could have won if QS had only accepted PQs offer. At the same time, he uses language that tries to reach out to QS though...

[Oryxslayer]

Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue got called to the QS a while ago by 506 votes. This reach seat is the capstone on a great night for the QS. One theme that could be taken away from tonight was that once the Sovereignty issue was stripped away, the old parties had nothing to stand on.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a question, is there any data or reports on if the NAFTA news changed voters? I'm wondering why the polls undershot to CAQ and overshot the PLQ by so much - I suspect it's a combination of PLQ voters having poor turnout rates, and perhaps an 11th hour rural voter movement to the CAQ.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout clearly wasn't in the PLQ's favor this election.

[Oryxslayer]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

[Oryxslayer]

Anybody have a blank map of Quebec ridings, if so please provide it and I will make some maps on support by party.

Want a shapefile? BTW, am I correct in thinking Quebec hasn't put out poll-by-poll results yet?

Anything where I can colour them in using MS Paint works.  Poll by poll won't be out until finalized, much like federally as opposed to Ontario where it came out on election night.

Then a shapefile won't work - that requires GIS.

[Oryxslayer]

The thing that seems to be missing from this debate about just how realigning was the election is actual partisan data. Was this election truly a shift right, or were natural attitudes just finally manifesting themselves? Or was it simply a case that without the separatism issue, the PLQ/PQ were simply outdated vehicles for government?

What we need is a good poll that measures the provinces opinions on a left-right spectrum. In the past this was the Independence question, since that was the relevant spectrum. We further can't really use any past elections as basis for judging this: all previous local elections were under the PQ-PLQ Separatist-Federalist axis for two huge-tent parties, and all federal elections since the demise of the BQ have been about parties opposing separatism: the Libs and NDP. All this citing of old ideologies forgets that people and constituencies change, and the past ~35 years have obscured that ideological change behind the Independence debate.