Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Oryxslayer]

Cook moves the race to tossup - http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alabama-senate/alabama-senate-one-hot-mess-moves-toss

They call this presently the most uncertain race since Mel Carnahan died 3 weeks before the 2000 Missouri senate election.

[Oryxslayer]

If Jones wins, on what date is he seated?

ASAP, if not immediately, upon the certification of the result

For both candidates the results will be certified in Mid-December. Because of the holiday recess, the soonest either candidate could take their seat is early January. If Moore wins however, expect a ethics investigation to begin December so that he can be expelled as soon as he takes his seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my prediction: Moore wins narrowly, gets seated, and everyone forgets about this except for the activist left by February. If Gianforte body slamming a reporter on tape wasn't enough to get as much as a censure from the House, Moore won't be expelled from the Senate, as much as they want us to think they are so #disappointed at him now. Plus, it would be setting a dangerous precedent for the Senate if they were to actually take a stand against sexual harassment and assault, since, as someone pointed out in the other thread, there are probably dozens of people in Congress who have done similar things, albeit with girls who were probably closer to their own age.

So at least if I'm wrong, it will mean we are not on the absolute worst possible timeline, so that's good.

The problem with that though is that Moore is not McConnels's ally. He prefers to 'throw live grenades' (as someone put it) on the floor of the senate then cooperate with the Republican party. If Moore does get seated, he is probably safe there for life unless Alabama's political makeup changes, and he got that seat while abandoned by the senate leadership. He owes them nothing. Do you think McConnel wants such a character in a seat that could be filled by a loyal straight line R? It makes perfect partisan sense to kick Moore out and get a loyal lackey who will win with 70% of the vote consistantly.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my prediction: Moore wins narrowly, gets seated, and everyone forgets about this except for the activist left by February. If Gianforte body slamming a reporter on tape wasn't enough to get as much as a censure from the House, Moore won't be expelled from the Senate, as much as they want us to think they are so #disappointed at him now. Plus, it would be setting a dangerous precedent for the Senate if they were to actually take a stand against sexual harassment and assault, since, as someone pointed out in the other thread, there are probably dozens of people in Congress who have done similar things, albeit with girls who were probably closer to their own age.

So at least if I'm wrong, it will mean we are not on the absolute worst possible timeline, so that's good.

This is pretty obviously going to be the outcome of this fiasco, and I'd specify that "narrowly" refers to "narrowly by Alabama standards", i.e. within 10 points as opposed to recount-margin territory.

Someone's prediction of a 51-44 victory for Moore sounds about right, IMO. And yes, he will end up being seated and will stay seated for as long as he so chooses in all likelihood.

I ask why would Moore stay seated when he is rapidly anti-McConnel? It makes perfect sense to purge a inconsistent vote at best in favor of a safe vote. Remember, the senate pac spent millions trying to keep Strange in the chamber. They will get rid of Moore and get a sager vote, pervertism is just a excellent excuse to do it

[Oryxslayer]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Sabato tend to be very liberal in their analysis (small l) especially compared to Cook, meaning they are more open to changes in ratings. Sabato during a campaign will not be afraid to move their ratings a lot, while Cook tends to only want to do it infrequently unless something big happens. Sabato also tries to identify the way a race may be going, whereas Cook tends to just reflect the race right now. Sabato, for example, loves to hold seats at Likely in order to signify that they might be competitive in the future. Finally unlike most other projectors, Sabato isn't afraid to project a race as a flip, whereas Cook, DDHQ, and others tend to need at least some convincing to push  a race for the non-incumbent side.

Strangely, their VA HoD projections were almost entirely counter to the above - the were the most conservative (small c) of the projectors. I chalk this up to less information of the on-the-ground situation.