CA Primary Night!! (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 28, 2024, 08:56:43 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  CA Primary Night!! (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CA Primary Night!!  (Read 4153 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,006


« on: June 06, 2018, 08:05:29 PM »

Ultraconservative Steve Poizner is currently in first place in the Insurance Commissioner race. He changed to an independent to run for a second, non-consecutive term. I wonder if not having the party label may result in an R pickup.

He's not even close to ultraconservative lol. He's really moderate.

he only got 41% of the vote. He'll be the best performing "conservative" on the ballot and he'll probably still lose by 9 or 10.
He outpreformed republicans all across the state though. He is the only other republican besides Arnold to have won statewide in California since the year 2000
heres his map from 06

he's definetly demonstrated his ability to win in blue wave years I wouldn't count him out just yet

lol he ran against Cruz Bustamante, who has a unique record of blowing almost every race he's ever run, and California has become a lot more Democratic since 2006 (fun fact, Democrats gained more seats in 2012 than they did in 2008, which was a much better year for Democrats nationally, and while the rest of the nation got swamped in 2014, Democrats GAINED a seat in California)

And he out-performed every single Republican on the ballot to get... 41% as the only center right candidate and the combined Democratic vote still ended up beating him by double digits. Poizner might close that gap some but I doubt he's going to even get within single digits.

If he had received 45-46% of the vote yesterday i would've paid attention.
Before 2012 the districts in California were gerrymandered to favor incumbents.

Which kinda became a Pub-mander sometime around 2006 when California kept getting blue. Similar to how NJ has transitioned from a pub-mander to a dummymander. This is the main reason for some , but not all, of the dems house gains in CA in 2012.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,006


« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2018, 08:09:24 AM »

Um no. Orange County is not going to Newsom. Brown didn't even win it. I doubt Newsom outperforms Clinton. Also San Bernadino and Riverside both have been more willing to vote for a Republican for Governor in past years.

Dems and repa are basically tied in the primary vote right now - expect dems to pull ahead once the postals are tallied. Newsom is going to win and increasingly blue county.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 11 queries.