NJ-02: (Update) NRCC unendorses Grossman

[Oryxslayer]

This is ridiculous. A Generic D would be perfectly fine in this district. It voted to the left of the country in 2012, ffs.

Yes, if we assume LoBiondo is always going to retire in a 2018 environment, then I suspect any D would be picking this seat up. However, only van Drew could make this seat the second (third?) seat triaged this cycle by the GOP. (after PA-06, PA-05?)

If you want to see a Progressive upside, picture it like this. If it wasn't van drew then more dem money would be wasted in the expensive Philly market picking up a seat. With van Drew though, dem money can be dispersed to other competitive seats who have a whole host of people with varying ideologies running.

[Oryxslayer]

The point is that Van Drew will probably be voting like a Republican more than half the time (and probably more on critical votes). So when he'll win, we won't actually be picking up one seat, we'll be picking up maybe 0.3 or 0.4 seats. Which means we basically conceded half a seat in a prime pickup opportunity before the election even happened.

There aren't any Democrats that vote with Republicans more than 50% of the time. The worst you get now is 30-35%.

And how many times did LoBoindo vote with the Dems? I suspect that how frequently van Drew will vote with the Reps.