🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Oryxslayer]

The stereotype of the elderly die Linke voter doesn't seem very accurate then...

Once was accurate, but it's been 30 years since the wall came down. There's a reason why Linke has gained in the west and collapses in the east, and it's not swing voters. Its generational replacement.

[Oryxslayer]

You have to comb through the municipal websites for the partial counts. Examples:
Berlin
Munich
Leipzig

Saxony appears to have the best of the state sites.

[Oryxslayer]

Brandenburg results, for those interested.

[Oryxslayer]

Cuxhaven flips on both first and second votes from Union to SPD.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the district results, the SPD looses votes in Lower Bavaria

They are actually gaining votes on the second list, but very few, even in the Munich seat that just reported. Bavaria's mainly a story of FW surging, Greens gaining, and other parties remaining stagnant or declining.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently the SPD are gonna get 3 to 4 of the direct seats from Thuringia, and the Greens are gonna win 2 to 3 in Hamburg.

[Oryxslayer]

144: Unna I is an SPD hold, with an increased plurality from 2017.
How good is this for the Social Democrats?

I dunno, the change there was mainly Union-> Green with SPD standing strong, on both ballots.

[Oryxslayer]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

[Oryxslayer]

Greens get their first direct mandate out of Freiburg, but more will come in Hamburg, Munich, and Berlin. Notably, the Union lose 3% and the SPD 5% here on the second ballot when compared to the first one, going to Greens and FDP.

[Oryxslayer]

Another flip:

194: Gera-Greiz-Altenburger Land (Thuringen)    CDU >AfD

Is this the first Afd pickup?

Nope, every AfD seat outside of Saxony is a flip, and their gonna get 5 to 6 flips from the Union out of Saxony. Honestly surprised they aren't gonna get one from Brandenburg.

[Oryxslayer]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

Like their Bavaria results are great, but it's a 1% average elsewhere. Seems like previous CSU voters parked their vote with FW since they needed another 'mainstream' right-wing party that wasn't with the Union - similar to the state election.

Great enough to actually win some list seats in Bavaria, or still sub-5% even there?

7 to 10% in the rural areas, which gives them no flips cause the CSU controls Bavaria and seats are awarded based on a parties federal voteshare. It's a great showing, but limited to a single portion of the overall results.

[Oryxslayer]

Stuttgart I, another Green gain from CDU. Cem Ozdemir wins a direct mandate. Outperformed the Zweitstime by 12%.

SPD interestingly wins the Stuttgart II list vote, but not because they gained any serious numbers of votes. More because the Union lost 5% of votes to the FDP from ballot 1 to 2.

[Oryxslayer]

Union flip Märkischer Kreis II direct mandate from SPD, probably one of the few they'll flip overall. SPD hold the list vote. CDU secretary Paul Ziemiak carries the day.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1442242560181747719?s=20

EuropeElects seat estimate. R2G short by 12, but Union definitely in second. Also probably the 1 from SSW, but we have no official data on S-H yet to judge.

[Oryxslayer]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

Enjoy Euphoria.

Yes, the coalition talks might get complicated here. I think we can throw R2G in the trash, and GroKo v2.0 doesn't seem desirable for either of the big two. Meanwhile the exits showed Greens liked Stoplight but hated Jamaica, and vice versa for the the FDP. So when Lindner says the Greens and FDP should go into negotiations first, I kinda agree with him. Let the kingmakers decide their priorities and then dictate them to their two partners.

[Oryxslayer]

Even the SPD is ahead of CDU now in Saxony. That's a shocker.

Wait, really?
Not watching the election on tv but really?

AfD gonna AfD.


Also, Greens surprisingly get the direct mandate and list vote in Bonn.

[Oryxslayer]

Die Linke has won its first official direct mandate:
Sören Pellmann could retain his constituency Leipzig II.

This was expected for a while, but it's good for Die Linke that this is now becoming official.

And it actually could matter: EuropeElects presently projects Linke at 4.9%.

[Oryxslayer]

Greens win Frankfurt am Main II, Munster, and top the list vote in Frankfurt am Main I. Still gonna finish behind the AfD in direct mandates, but it will be close given how the Green coalition is much less efficient at winning these type of seats.

[Oryxslayer]

The FPTP element of MMP at its best - District Dresden II-Bautzen II.

The most "fun" is that the SPD actually won the list vote, there, but many centre-left voters probably thought they had to vote for the CDU to avoid an AfD gain.

No the AfD won the list in Dresden II. It's Dresden I where the SPD topped the list. Did finish ahead of the Union on the list in both seats.

If we want to talk about real FPTP shenanigans, Linke got 8% more on the ballot in Leipzig II than their list. Same motives probably - the desire to prevent the AfD/Union - but it would have been the Greens who benefited. Because these voters went Linke on the first ballot, Linke might get its share of seats rather than fall out because of the threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Is FDP joining a coalition with SPD something they're open to or what happens if they refuse?

They're open to it & will enter into negotiations. If they refuse, then probably Jamaica &/or GroKo negotiations.

Germany is in this weird situation where the victorious party lacks options and can't force their allies hands, and their potential allies are not all set on supporting the SPD. R2G is in the dumpster, and GroKo v2 has been refused by the Union. The partners, FDP and the Greens, have more leverage since they have the option of walking away from the SPD and proping up the union, despite how it would bend a bunch of German political traditions. So unless the SPD capitulates instantly in negotiations, I bet it goes:

- Traffic light negotiations begin.
- FDP ends negotiations after it hits some red line.
- Jamaica negotiations begin to gain traction.
- SPD capitulates, Greens and FDP come back to the table and exact far more concessions than the SPD would like.
- Traffic Light government formed, but the SPD is unhappy.

[Oryxslayer]

Why won’t Die Linke and SPD work together? Is there a history of mistrust there?

Slightly, plus there's Linke's redline on NATO. But more it's a case where the R2G don't have 50%+1, so that isn't even a point of discussion.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Greens won the Aachen direct mandate. This means the Greens will now tie the AfD in direct mandates, despite the AfD vote being more efficient on winning these types of seats. Just another way to stick it to the semi-fascists.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't "Jamaica" (CDU-Greens-FDP) pretty much impossible?  Why would Greens support CDU?   They're a lot further from each other than FDP is from SPD.

Impossible is too strong a word for one of the only three viable governments, and especially since one of the three would only be pursued if all else fails. It would be better for the FDP to go with Jamaica, and the Greens overwhelmingly prefer Traffic Light. They both are skeptical of the alternative. But both can work with either option, if it is beneficial. Both types of government are in place in various states.

Now if this is a question of ideology, remember that the German greens are not a Scandinavian left-green party. That is just one part of their tent. The German greens are more middle-of-the-road, which is why they surged this election at the expense of the Union, and their biggest gains by percentage tended to come from well-off educated areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Final Result:

Seats: SPD 206, CDU 151, Grüne 118, FDP 92, AfD 83, CSU 45, Linke 39, SSW 1
Total: 735, Majority: 368

Traffic Light: 416
Jamaica: 406
R2G: 363, short by 5

Which one did SSW win? Or is theirs from the proportional part because they’re an ethnic interest party? I think I vaguely remember hearing something about them being exempt from the 5% or 3 constituencies rule?

SSW is a recognized minority interest party. Therefore, the 5% threshold does not apply to they, they just need to win enough votes to get a proportional seat in S-H.

[Oryxslayer]

Did the CDU just gain two direct mandate seats (Märkischer Kreis II and Berlin-Marzahn-Hellersdorf)?

Yes, despite their falls the CDU gained two. They ran their party chair in one so he had a personal brand, and in the other they had a high floor and Linke just fell past them.