Virginia Redistricting with Anti-Gerrymandering Amendment

[Oryxslayer]

Well, what likely happens is that once Dems get control in 2019, they 'edit' the wording of the Redistricting law is it shifts the biased towards them and the parts that will only continue to get blue with the state. This not only set the restarts constitutional change clock (giving dems free reign in 2021), but ensures blue lines in the future.

But back to the main question. NOVA (Loudon, Fairfax, PW) Has more then 3 districts Pop, so any map drawn in this scenario has three safe blue seats right there. There needs to be a SW and a Shanandoah Pub seat, and two BVAP seats down in the Southside/Tidewater/Capital region. What you are really left with then are the present VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, VA-07. VA-02 cannot change much, but it can be anywhere from D+5 to R+5 depending on if Norfolk or Chesapeake get in the seat, and how may dems/reps are not.


This leaves usq with the Capital based VA-07, the Northern/Chesapeake VA-01, and the the Southside VA-05. Depending on how things are configured, all could be republican or VA-07 could be Safe Dem - if it eats Charlottesville. Under a Gerry Map, VA-01 could also be blue, buts thats not here or there. Under the Amendment, Its likely the state goes 3-0 pubs her with VA-02 as close to partisan balanced  as one can get, or have two swing seats in VA-07 and VA-02, giving us 5 dems and 4 reps, 2 swing.