North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Hold on, does Governor Cooper get a say in any of this? It seems like he should.

Not in NC. Redistricting is normally in the sole  hands of the legislature, presently GOP. This is why the courts have been moving against all the maps right now at the end of the cycle so as to establish themselves as the de facto overseer for 2021. The courts will get a say when the legislature presents it's maps.

[Oryxslayer]

So, if the Senate passes the current map. How long until we know if the courts approve it or not?

They will be sure to let us know. Practically though, if they intend to make edits then it will go quickly - in PA  the courts took authority quickly to banish uncertainty.


Anyway, the senate is going to look at, and likely pass unchanged, the House's map today. The NC state house isn't sitting again for a while so it's very unlikely they make any edits at all.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/brentlaurenz/status/1195369646142238720


https://twitter.com/NCCapitol/status/1195370914742816768

Practically I feel this amendment is a delaying tactic, not a real move to change the lines. 2/4 lines are really not a problem, though they can be improved marginally.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1195437707796897797

The legislative side is now done.

[Oryxslayer]

The NCGOP is playing much smarter than the PA GOP is. The PA GOP just tried an absurd map only conceding 1 seat out of them all and using that to shore up the remaining seats. Instead they got smacked by the courts. A fair map would probably have a 6-7 delegation but the GOP can reasonably fight for a 5-8 delegation as a 5-8 isn't an extreme gerrymander or insane either. Unfortunately for them the NC dems did not give bipartisan cover so the courts will probably give a tossup/Tilt D seat to the D's with Fayetville.

I honestly think they could be able to get away with it if 5/10 weren't crazy. Maybe those two are  meant to be bait to distract from 8/9? I keep wondering why 5/10 were drawn like so. The only conclusion I have is that the house GOP wanted to protect against or facilitate certain primaries, potentially because they desire to save Walker and Bus someone else  in a GOP primary.

[Oryxslayer]

So if the courts don’t say anything by dec 2, the map they put out will be the final map?

There is history pushing back the NC congressional primaries to make appropriate time for mapping and candidate filling, so I would treat that as a soft date at best, especially since it falls near the holidays.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1201566864784199681?s=19

Yep, disappointing. If the deep blue supremes don't like it then they will let us know shortly since they would want to fast-track an appeal. For now, let's assume the ruling stands and those odd GOP seats remain intact.

[Oryxslayer]

Will there be any intense D primaries in NC-02 and NC-06?

Well, we shall see. The map appears to have not been challenged because of the filing window. Already former senate candidate Deborah Ross has filed for NC02 and 2018 NC-13 candidate Kathy Manning filed for NC-06. However, there are large blue bases in both seats, so we will see who emerges.

[Oryxslayer]

I doubt the peculiar lines of 5 and 10 (and to a lesser extent 13) had anything to do with Foxx's gender. I suspect it had everything to do with rigging the primaries for someone - we just don't know who yet. It could be that the mappers wanted Walker to survive so they made the 13th in a way that could benefit him in a primary, and cut 13 between districts to prevent Budd from fleeing. Or the lines could be set up to prevent or facilitate the advancement of state legislators to Washington. We won't know till everyone has filed.

[Oryxslayer]

I doubt the peculiar lines of 5 and 10 (and to a lesser extent 13) had anything to do with Foxx's gender. I suspect it had everything to do with rigging the primaries for someone - we just don't know who yet. It could be that the mappers wanted Walker to survive so they made the 13th in a way that could benefit him in a primary, and cut 13 between districts to prevent Budd from fleeing. Or the lines could be set up to prevent or facilitate the advancement of state legislators to Washington. We won't know till everyone has filed.

Why would they want to get rid of Budd? And how do you know he wouldn’t go to the 10th instead?

No idea, just guessing. The fact that so much safe R territory was unnecessarily shuffled when everything could be kept compact suggests an external desire. The partisan makeup of the region implies this desire  has to do with the GOP primary. What those primary desires exactly are remain unknown.

[Oryxslayer]

It's worth bearing in mind that Foxx is 76 years old, so she must be on a retirement watchlist anyway.

See, heres a good reason why they might have messed with the western seats. Plenty of others her age are looking at the figures and expecting that the GOP won't take the House. The 5th could have been drawn to specifications for say another Suburban Charlotte legislator who wants to advance, couldn't previously without a primary, and is expecting Foxx to throw in the towel.

[Oryxslayer]

If this is going to be the thread for NC next decade Redistricting as well, then I suggest we change the title. If so, then I will post two maps.



NC Gerry 2020. Essentially if the GOP are allowed to work unmolested then this is likely the type of map to emerge. They kinda tipped their hat in two ways with the current map, which is receives an 'decent' using 2010 data. But if they try to preserve it using 2020 data the gerrymander really emerges. NC-06 becomes a tight pack for all the dems in that region. The Sandhills remain cracked to bits, only Fayetteville now needs to be carved up because the county weighs more under 14 districts with 2020 pops. Raleigh is reworked to make one of the new Safe Dem seats into a AA opportunity seat, which makes NC02/04 into a Yin-Yang of Safe Dem packs. I kept the oddities in the west because I am now fully expecting a Gaston/Cleveland Republican to be making preparations to succeed Foxx. NC-13 also could allow Walker a chance back if he wins the primary. These Asheville lines are the Safest the GOP can get while still making the seat look sane. NC-09, as before, is the weak link on the  map and could potentially be vulnerable if the Republicans didn't have favorable trends  with the Lumbees. NC-14 could be vulnerable by the end of the decade if Wake keeps up it's current growth. Only real improvement is that NC-07 is now fully in the Wilmington region, but that happens on any 2020 map.

NC-01: 56/41.8 Clinton
NC-02: 62/32.4 Clinton
NC-03: 59.7/37.2 Trump
NC-04: 66.3/29.4 Clinton
NC-05: 65/31.2 Trump
NC-06: 61.8/31.4 Clinton
NC-07: 57.9/38.2 Trump
NC-08: 57.1/39.2 Trump
NC-09: 52.9/42.7 Trump
NC-10: 68.6/27.7 Trump
NC-11: 55.2/40.1 Trump
NC-12: 70.8/24.7 Clinton
NC-13: 64.8/31.8 Trump
NC-14: 55.3/40.5 Trump



NC Dem-tilting map. This is the type of map that the 6-1 (likely less in 2020, but still blue) courts would pass if given the option. This could be because the GOP tried to pass the previous map, and a citizens suit is fast-tracked to slap the map down. Or perhaps the dems take the State House (lean R under new lines) and force the courts to get involved. Either way, something like this is what may rise up: a map that gives both parties opportunities at control. NC-02 and NC-14 are both Wake based seats, though radically different. NC-14 is suburban and a swing seat (voting for Trump and Cooper by slim margins), whereas NC-02 gets all of Raleigh and the Northern white suburbs. NC-06 Loses High Point to become a more natural seat whose goal isn't to pack every democrat in the region. NC-09 is the Sandhills s eat everyone deserves, which while a Likely Dem pickup now is probably fated to slide to tossup by the end of the decade thanks to AAs leaving the belt for the cities. NC-03's community is the counties between the two AA seats, but it also has to reach up and grab the blood red counties north of Kitty Hawk. NC-08 could be competitive by the end of the decade, as long as the Charlotte white precincts keep moving left. The best community for NC-11 under 14 seats is actually based around the mountains and reaching up to Boone, whereas under 13, it should leave Boone for NC-05. This produces a weird seat t hat could be competitive depending on the candidates, Cooper only lost this NC-11 by 2%!

Overall, the map starts at 5 Safe Dem, 1 Lean/Likely Dem, 1 Tossup, 6 Safe Rep, and 1 usually Rep but weird (NC-11).

NC-01: 56.3/41.2 Clinton
NC-02: 59.1/36 Clinton
NC-03: 60.3/36.5 Trump
NC-04: 63.2/32.7 Clinton
NC-05: 71/25.7 Trump
NC-06: 58.4/37.4 Clinton
NC-07: 59.4/36.7 Trump
NC-08: 53.6/41.6 Trump
NC-09: 51.6/45.3 Clinton
NC-10: 66.5/29.9 Trump
NC-11: 53.7/41.3 Trump
NC-12: 68.7/26.8 Clinton
NC-13: 66.8/29.9 Trump
NC-14: 48.1/47 Trump

Wake and Charlotte are both at a position in 2020 where they cannot fully support 2 seats, that happens in 2030 if growth continues. Right now, the numbers are that each can support 1 seat, with pop to loan and top off other seats. In 2020, both are in the awkward position where they can either support 1 and have the county cut up a lot (like Charlotte and Wake in Gerry), support 1 and then share the second with other large counties (Charlotte Courts), or cut the county and base two seats in it but both seats need external support (Wake Courts).

[Oryxslayer]

The court map splitting guilford 4 times?

I know it doesn't really affect the partisanship of the map but its just flat out ugly.

Which do you prefer: cutting four counties 1 time each, or cutting one county four times? I prefer the latter since it keeps more counties, the easiest agreeable Community of interest, intact. However, this is just a cast of preferences,  and everyone has their own opinion on them.

For example I find preferable to keep counties whole when desirable, and every county cut needs to be justified. Random cuts that pop up just because you already finished one district and refuse to adjust said district to better accommodate others look ugly to me. This is just preferences after all.

[Oryxslayer]

When discussing minority seats, I also played around with it in a GOP styled map a while back. I have not updated it for the 2018 numbers that were released today. The 2nd seat is 35% black, the 4th (colored for visibility) is 69% white, and both are Safe D. Seems like something that might get passed. I call it the 'Yin-Yang.'

[Oryxslayer]

The problem with the NC state legislature right now is that due to the growth its still quite hard for Democrats to have a fair count of their population.

Yeah it's likely that Blue counties would naturally be apportioned >50% in at least 1 chamber come 2020. County pairing changes what is possible in regards to the districts. Charlotte and Wake are growing that fast. However, there is no guarantee all seats would be safe, or even democratic - there are red parts of blue counties and visa versa.  

[Oryxslayer]

The NC senate and NC House are really in play?

They cannot flip presently unless the Dems get lucky. However, if the power remains distributed as it is presently then the outcomes of the map are uncertain. Population has ballooned in the Charlotte and Raleigh metros and it will only get larger - 2030 the map will likely naturally favor the dems if coalitions and growth remain as they are. Right now though it is gonna be 50-50 between blue and red areas. In 2010 it favored R areas. Seats get reapportioned throughout the state. NC redistricting is 100% going to be a battleground if things remain as they are.

[Oryxslayer]

I messed around last week.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253732377072984066

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253744391941959680

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253737004229066760

Why is this so ugly? Splitting Orange and Durham, the odd shape of the 5th, etc.

IMO the most likely outcome is a fair map imposed by the court which is more on the Democratic side of the range of possibilities.  

Are you referring to map 1, 2, or 3 here? 2 only micro-cuts Orange, and that's because of pop. But on the broader topic...incumbent protection deals are not the prettiest maps, they are guided by partisanship. Almost everything is copied from the current map, so blame the legislature for the mess. In concerning the makeup of 4 and 14, it came down to the easiest way to make all seats safe.  The way how the Dems in the legislature would see this is an expansion of the Triangles power since they would have Ross in Raleigh, Price, or likely his successor, in Chapel Hill, and someone new in Durham. That's just how parochial legislators think, which is why commissions are better. Unfortunately, NC lacks a commission so that style of map is not drawn.

[Oryxslayer]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

[Oryxslayer]

Any D court is gonna squish a 4th tossup/ D district in the Piedmont to the triangle, you just have to start by using all of Forsyth then add a few extra moderately R leaning Counties in the north for the tossup.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/533404207668133888/707062709010694144/unknown.png
Blue is the main COI for the 4 districts and green is the remaining 250k or so pop needed to boost it to exactly 4 districts by 2018 pop.

Yes, any Dem court map is going to find a way to squeeze 4 D/Competitive seats out of the cities in north NC. However, they probably won't go with exactly the blue counties you selected because of the cascade effect it would have of the map. The 1st is already getting desperate for more favorable turf, so it probably needs AT LEAST one of Franklin or Granville. Even still, it would then require eating more from the west of the state. This then either requires 9 to give up needed swingy turf in the Sandhills or Johnston ends up with one of the eastern seats - neither a good outcome. That said, taking in a bit of red won't really hurt any of the seats in the long term - the court drawn map I suggested above for instance found a way to get a swing seat out of the region even with Johnston and Hernet. there is zero chance a dem court map tries to revive 2016 NC02 like in sols previous map.

Also, I will go over Sol's response point by point later, when it is not 11pm at night.

You mean the green counties right?
The blue ones are the big counties while the green counties are what I needed to boost up the district. Anyway IMO the 4th "Triangle" district should still be pretty R leaning like sol's map but yeah   a D court is gonna shove that 4th seat in, similar to decisions like PA 17th(made for Lamb) or smaller decisions like PA 1st which shifted it 3 points left, or PA 10th to squeeze a seat there.(taking in York)

Yep, swap green and blue in my orginial post. This is an excellent example of why I don't want to respond meticulously to a post at 11pm. 

[Oryxslayer]

I have no idea why you assume that 1. The NCGOP would consult with Democrats even if drawing a fairly modest map,

This scenario has the GOP wishing to avoid the court. Now why would they consult with the Dems and get their agreement even though right now it looks like the GOP will have full de jure mapping authority? Well, perhaps because the Dems and their aligned groups would be the ones pushing it up to the courts, so the GOP would want to get a map that they could agree to, so that they have confidence the lines won't be challenged. That is this map's scenario, and it follows likely trajectories based on that initial scenario.

2. that the Democrats would want a Fayetteville to Chapel Hill district. If your new 14th district is open, it's liable to elect a Fayetteville democrat.

Sure, the seat could elect a Fayetteville Dem, but that is less likely. Fayetteville had about 70K Dem voters in 2016, and a large chunk of them are AA, meaning lower primary turnout. The Triangle Area has 105-110K Dem voters, and most are Suburbanites. The region is also growing, and will get more dems. If Price stays on past 2022 then it would 100% be electing 3 Triangle dems, and there are more of them in the legislature. But on to the more pressing issue...

The status quo of a Durham-Chapel Hill district is pretty sensible and wouldn't be controversial with the local Democrats. Then you can draw a district based in Fayetteville and environs. The previous gerrymandered 4th went all the way to Fayetteville and was loathed, and not just because it was a hyper-partisan vote sink--Orange and Cumberland counties are extremely different.

So this is about separating Chapel Hill and Durham, which only became united after the 2019 court case. Lets start the explanation from the triangle, but from the Sandhills. In this scenario, the GOP does not want Fayetteville in their red seats - it's too much of a blue anchor. In fact it would make more sense to throw the district into a pack. However, where would this pack come from? It can't be a long NC01 connection, a decision which would allow for a centralized third Triangle seat. Even if one is selective and takes away a bunch of counties near to the Triangle, NC01+Fayetteville+the connector is still too overpopulated. It can't be southern Wake - that area is still not blue enough to anchor a safe Dem pack, even if you go the for the blue areas like Cary. Plus I'm sure Ross might be a little fussy for losing the centrism of her Wake seat. It can't be Durham, even though such a move would create another AA opportunity seat. Durham is just to heavy, and both of the counties combined would almost equal one CD. By process of elimination, it has to be Chapel Hill.

But, you might ask, why not go for the Sandhills. Well, because a district with Fayetteville, Robeson, Bladen, Hoke, Scotland, Richmond, Anson, and whatever GOP turf if needed to fill out the seat has it's over issues. Such a seat would be weak in it's dem partisan lean, and would require a bunch of re-jostling across the map. This is ideal for a fair or court map, which cares about COIs first and partisanship second. It however is not ideal for a Bipartisan gerrymander. Democrats look at this and see a seat that would need money to defend in all years, and would be vulnerable to a flip in bad years. The GOP looks at such a district and sees a bunch of rural Republican precincts getting wasted in a Blue seat AND a bunch of weaker Blue and tossup areas - counties perfect for cracking. Fayetteville however is none of these, unless the GOP has the authority to go for complete carveup since they somehow found a way to flip the court.

In summery, Fayetteville is too Blue to be cracked, yet too heavy a democratic county to be paired with anything but Chapel Hill.

Additionally, cutting Mecklenburg into 5 districts with 7 pieces is grotesque. No party wants to do something like that unless they're engaging massive scale gerrymandering, which isn't what they're supposed to be doing in this map and which isn't necessary. They'd split Catawba or Iredell or something first.

While I may have held the pen here, the decision as not mine. I want you to open your eyes for a moment. This map is mostly based on the 2019 lines, with some adjustments so that the dems would not challenge it in court. So I want you to think: Why did the GOP bacon-strip their safe R seats even though they are all Safe R and nobody has any threats. Consideirng they cross multiple media markets, it makes it all harder for incumbents to appeal to their entire district and leaves disconnected communities which can birth opportunists. The original thought was that the new seats were designed to facilitate certain primary challengers or lay the groundwork for certain legislative allies upon the retirement of said incumbents. But that didn't happen. However the decision was clearly premeditated and understanding why the districts were reoriented is key.

My understanding right now is that the districts were reoriented because of the actual population on the ground, even though they were mapping with 2010 data. Mecklenburg seems to have added above 200K last decade. Gaston added 20K. Cabarrus added 40K. Union added 40K. If 2016 and 2018 are good indicators, most of these new additions are democrats. Oh, and Charlotte doesn't appear to be slowing down her growth anytime soon. The GOP wants a map that can survive all 10 years safely. Sticking the entire counties surplus in NC08 or 09 will be dangerous in the future based on growth patterns. The trick therefore is to divide the surplus between the districts the GOP reoriented into the region for likely this very reason. The 2019 map laid the groundwork, for their plans in 2020. Now yes, I could have pulled one of NC10 or NC05 out of Mecklenburg and cut the county one less time, but if you are already committing to a mass-crack, you should probably go all the way.

[Oryxslayer]

You guys care to explain why you are sending NC01 into Durham? That was ruled as a gerrymander in December, especially since AAs can get their candidate of preference fine using only the belt counties. If you really need more AAs for partisan safety, east non-Raleigh wake is readily available and closer to the belt.

[Oryxslayer]

This is just a f*** you to the NC Supreme Court

My thoughts exactly. This map is a wishcast. It's purpose is either move the Overton Window so far to the right that when they proceed to draw 9-5 people accept said map despite it's clear partisanship, or they know the court's going to seize power very fast no matter what, so there is no point playing reasonable.

[Oryxslayer]

Six maps proposed by legislative members have been posted on the NCLEG website:

https://www.ncleg.gov/Committees/CommitteeInfo/SenateStanding/154#2021\Member%20Submitted%20Maps

CBK 4 and 5 (5 is a slight change to 4) are too good for this world, must be Dem-drawn maps since we didn't see them earlier.

CMT9 is the wtf map that fails to try and cut up charlotte spotted 2 weeks ago.

Also anyone know what exactly is the naming convention? C is for congress, S is for senate, but the next two letters clearly arn't signifying who submitted the map given BK3's differences from BK 4 and 5.

[Oryxslayer]

I imported it into DRA.

Oddly fair 6-8 in 2020 president data, with 9 and 14 very close. Who drew this thing?

I dunno, but it is a least-change map almost to a fault: not cutting Wayne, janky cut of Winston Salem, keeping some of the weird Charlotte suburbs cuts.