North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

Based on the shapefile I got, Biden won 58/120 seats on the new map. Clinton won 51/120, and Cooper (2020) won 64/120.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::df281e24-3b57-4e83-9d65-df812eed1787

So assume this makes Republicans getting a supermajority (3/5ths) a lot harder?

If this map passes, yes (balance is currently 69-51).

That said, this map does look like an attempt at a OH-GOP situation, where a decent number of the added dem seats are marginal and could fall despite going for Biden in an unfavorable environment.

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1493984501759885313?s=20&t=DByH-0...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1494063824953131011

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1494064618205028353?s=20&t=DByH-01IlcBT...

Maybe this means no stupidity with Chapel Hill?

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, it looks like those masters will have to do some work, at least congressionally.

[Oryxslayer]

The 9-5 CST22-3 map passed committee on a voice vote and will go to the full floor when the senate reconvenes at 12:30.

I personally think this map is ok. I understand people are making an uproar of Guilford getting spilt. But it could be a lot worse.

I means the underlying numbers are somewhat fine, but geography is awful. Which was the intention, and your perspective depends on your goals. I have seen national commentators say exactly what you said, but everyone in NC is like, "nope!" And that reflects the differences in purposes: national only care about seat totals, but the people who have to live with the lines want something everyone can understand.

To that end, I'm sure the courts rejection of this map would go like "The legislature made a valid attempt for partisan equity, but did not similarly observe the compactness requirements were also requested."

[Oryxslayer]

NC senate approved their GOP-proposed legislative map and congressional map on a party-line vote.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1496535304831967233?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOA...

I think some of these seats qualify as needlessly complex for a easily reachable outcome. Also, two D seats in Charlotte.

[Oryxslayer]

Probably will be 8-6, but could be 7-7.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1496541870599847936?s=20&t=n2Riek7Y1a6...

Do we have the detailed 2020 results?

Not yet. The order says they attach block lists, but it doesn't. So nothing exact.

That map basically perfectly matches the partisan split of the state, with 7 seats won by Trump and Biden each, and the narrowest Biden seat is more marginal than the narrowest Trump seat.

There are so many better ways to draw a proportional map that do a much better job of preserving COIs.

These two go together perfectly. A good map from partisan lean perspective, but like say Colorado, reaches that outcome in a obtuse and weird way.

[Oryxslayer]

Someone finally transcribed the block files, so we got an official DRA version.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5a5bdb0a-4306-47c4-bc83-daff7855aa33

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently there are now other plaintiffs appealing against the legislative - mainly senate - lines that were approved by the 3-member panel.

[Oryxslayer]

I really hate Republicans:

https://twitter.com/stevenmazie/status/1497334606948827138?s=20&t=F2JLfVoQLk...

I mean this is superfluous based simply on Federalism grounds, if nothing else. The same attempt failed in PA in 2018, and then again today for the Legislative lines.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean first off you can improve the all-rural NC-01's appearance and general form, especially if you take NC-03 and NC-07 into consideration. Certainly neater than anything drawn in 2011.



Second, in light of Milligan there is is a decent chance something like this is drawn, maybe less obtuse but still keeping the general idea. The NC GOP's maps always  have to find a way to deal with Fayetteville and this is a new option that doesn't involve pizza-slicing the city and county. The justification is obviously that the 2022 results suggest the seat is not safe as a minority access seat under a renewed Section 2 Gingles, so the seat must collect the scattered smaller cities to in the south of the State's Black Belt.

The other thing this facilitates in the creation of that 'third' Black access seat seemingly missing in the Triangle via the earmuff/yin-yang design. Because lets be honest, the courts map could have had the same electoral result without mishandling minority precincts (Raleigh, W-S, Wayne, Fayetteville, etc) and dividing them up between seats like it was 2001.  If you have to concede two seats in the region, doing these Earmuffs forces the triangle's geography to favor the GOP in future redistrictings, even if they don't hold power.

[Oryxslayer]

It's not that hard to tweak the current house map and get more republican seats. You can pick up one in Buncombe, one in Cabarrus, one in Cumberland, one using Caswell and Pierson counties and potentially one in Wake even though it is weak. Also they could try drawing out the minority leader and shoring up weaker seats in Almance and Forsyth. You can make 78 Budd seats: https://davesredistricting.org/join/901c3d69-36ff-4dcf-8870-7ebc7f0dfe46

This isn't in compliance with cluster rule fyi. That may be something Republicans do, but in that case you can gerrymander even more efficiently than that.

How is it not?

County cluster rules in NC, you can't deviate from these except in three greyed out sets of counties which each have two (and only two) possible clusters. Seats that span multiple county clusters are illegal.

IIRC there is a asterisk to this though. If deemed necessary for equitable levels of minority access a court could order a merger two unitary clusters into a single group that enables an access seat. There were a few selective maps of clusters drawn with this intention last time around.

But the Dem courts maintained the nesting rules (among other redistricting decisions that seemingly helped dems but hurt minority groups), and the GOP ones won't exactly be bailing out the Democrats. So best to just assume absolute adherence to these nesting guidelines is required.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.

You don't think that might be playing with fire, what with the extra district compared to 2016 and with Wake County trends being what they are?

No, IMO its 10-4, and if it's not there is a decent chance a PI forces them to that. But we can only wait and see. They wanted 10-3 in 2022, but that was before Milligan made it clear that they couldn't get away with cutting an access seat. And they still ended up at 10-4 or 10-3-1, at least on paper.

NC-01 is Durham-Rural. NC-02 is Dem Wake core. NC-04 is Chapel Hill to Greensboro, probably by way of the northern rurals and a cut rather than Alamance, maybe with some of Wake added on through East Chatham. NC-12 is Charlette. Or alternative, you swap Durham with Wake's AA community and have Wake-rural, Wake, Durham/Chapel Hill/Greensboro, Charlette. In theory this should be safe from lawsuits with the NC Supreme Court majority-GOP, unless they try some real discriminatory cutups of minority communities that make for a racial gerrymandering case.

If they try 10-3 with Durham-Rural, it probably requires something visually incomprehensible in the Triangle for the reasons you allude to. Additionally the growth and additional district makes it hard to just return to 2016's lines easy.

Meanwhile, trying 10-3 while diluting NC-01 is going to get it forced back to a Dem district either through a PI using the post-Milligan legal situation to do what wasn't possible in 2022, or through a vote dilution suit before 2026. But maybe they will do that and just expect to hold the seat for two years.

They could even be cooking up something real heinous, motivated by the tight nature of the present congress. Or they could surprise us in the other direction, and draw something that they know will stand until 2030 cause there's more Dem packing than cracking, like in the 2020 map.  We can only wait and see.

[Oryxslayer]

The damage is expected to be unveiled in a few hours.

[Oryxslayer]

On the first map my guess is there’s favorable R sorting in Pitt County and NC-01 is about Biden + 45!

The second map appears to pull NC-01 further south into Wayne County and is probably about Biden + 2

Buncombe is apparently split in one map but not another.

[Oryxslayer]

Map 1:



Map 2:

[Oryxslayer]

Here's the senate plan, which obviously isn't as eye-catching as congress. Currently the Senate is 30-20 R-D, and the map seemingly admits this to be the soft ceiling as long as nesting is maintained. But the floor is pushed above 25, and thats what matters.

The GOP won the marginally D, plurality Black Northeast district in 2022, so the redraw to the alternative configuration that has two Majority White districts doesn't affect the math.

Guildford, Forsyth, Buncombe, and Cumberland are sorted based on partisanship to solidify the GOP seats that take in bits of the region.

SD13, 18, and 42 are attempts to create seats winnable for the GOP in blue counties. but these Dem-Held seats were all competitive by some definition before, so a small right-shift doesn't change their overall identity.

The precincts District 8 take from New Hanover are more Dem than the previous precincts, but the district remains marginal.

[Oryxslayer]

People keep saying that NC-01 (and NC-12, but that's less relevant) are VRA protected and tbh I don't think that's right. Cooper v. Harris established that you can't do weird tendril stuff to reach 50% Black CVAP and I don't think you can reach that benchmark in either area without those tendrils, so it seems to me that it fails Gingles. Not 100% sure though.

The claim against it would be illegal diminishment of ability to elect candidates of choice, in line with the FL-05 cases (the Federal and State ones are basically identical, just operating under different VRAs). As always when we discuss minority access, 50% has stopped being a hard threshold, what matters is RPV, turnout, and outcomes. A district in rural Mississippi or Louisiana requires more than 50% by these measures, while urban seats often can perform with considerably less.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, SH112 is so ugly it can only be explained as the "reelect Tricia Cotham" district, but even that may not save her.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1740092880386130407?t=x0234HSkuyXC3UBux...

So there are three(?) separate lawsuits involving a variety of complaints against varying collections of NCs maps. However,  there also appears to be an attempt to get a preliminary injection going, something I was wondering if would happen since things are going to be a bit muddy until the 8ths private right of action ruling is reversed,probably by the Supreme Court.


A PI hearing is the only way maps different from the ones we have already seen are used in 2024.