UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Blyth Valley is beating sunderland because supposedly the sunderlands are close, so the counts taking longer.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205260563888197633

Supposedly very close in Sunderland Central, but no cigar.

[Oryxslayer]

Rule one of Scottish projections: they have a extreme MOE compared to UK seats. I would not be surprised to see the SNP far lower than this exit poll. Last time they called the Lib-Dems to win Gordon in the exit poll.

Frankly, if we look at their immediate seat calls last time and compare them to the final result, there were a bunch of errors. However, the topline was good, which is what we should trust in all cases but the Scottish and seats with a significant minor (PC or smaller) party presence.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

Yes, the Tory vote appear to be seriously well distributed. London and the South is moving one way, but it only wipes away a handful of Tory seats when they are on 45% nationwide. The North meanwhile is moving in the opposite direction and giving the tories tons of flips, the NE has supposedly a 11% swing.

Where is TrendsAreReal when we need him?

[Oryxslayer]

if there was a problem with the Labour campaign this time, it was an unavoidable issue. In 2017, Labour was so far back that they could not make a realistic push for government. Sure, they said they were an alternative, but the numbers were not there. So Labour could play for the most powerful message in politics "lets put a check on the government." This force powers the reaction against the government in every federal system's off-year elections, and it allows voters to better ignore the failings of their chosen party. Your casting a negetive vote against the govt, not a positive vote for the opposition. May was just bad enough for a ton of voters to want to  put a check on her govt, so cobryn began to look at that potential govt. This time, Corbyn had too many seats, there was no chance of him making a play for this potential psychological force. the same voters from last time now had to actually think harder about their vote, and Corbyn wasn't potentially that convincing.

[Oryxslayer]

Yep it's going to be a classic #Globaltrend night. London and her enviorns are moving against Boris, the North is in love with him.

[Oryxslayer]

Yep it's going to be a classic #Globaltrend night. London and her enviorns are moving against Boris, the North is in love with him.

Normally I like to poo poo this kind of thing, but the idea that Labour can hold Cardiff North (a historic Welsh marginal won twice by the Tories in recent times) on such a large projected swing is astonishing, and can only be explained by a genuine, partial realignment on Remain v Leave lines.

I hate the Global trends meme...but it wouldn't be a meme if it wasn't a thing. If Blyth is flipping to the Tories, but Putney and Finchney are projected to be flipping away from them, it's the unfortunately the only rational response.

[Oryxslayer]

Nuneaton is in. While  it may have been a marginal in the past, it is easily a Tory hold.

[Oryxslayer]

CONs gain Workington

[Oryxslayer]

Exit poll may exaggerate the SNP BBC is saying. 55 was always kinda out there, but gains are guaranteed. I wonder if my prediction of urban/rural polarization will hold up on the SNP gains.

[Oryxslayer]

Alliance gain North down.

[Oryxslayer]

CON gain Leigh; the blowout is on.

Yeah that was at the tail end of their potential gains. Were getting a polarizing picture tonight between the SNP, London, and The northern Tories.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205310900128886784

i guess only one of the Tories or brexit should have seriously contested here.

[Oryxslayer]

Ed Milliband is supposedly in danger in his seat, but is expecting to hold, albeit narrowly.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205314401483530240

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205314413454077952

Different stories in the southern cities and remain'y areas than the north.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205320140549697542

RIP potential tactical voting

[Oryxslayer]

LD lose Eastbourne...

Expected after their MP's betrayal of the party brand, and then the Libs betray of his Brexit position.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC readjusted their projection, looks like they've revised Labour up a bit to 201 seats.

Tories also down. Numbers now are more inline with pre-election models.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205323900332195840

So the APNI gains their reach seat, but misses their normal target.

[Oryxslayer]

So the  Lib Dems gained Fife NE while losing Swinson's seat.

SNP gain Kirkcaldy despite their candidates scandals.

[Oryxslayer]

Not-SNP currently have 9 seats in Scotland, so if they get one more nobody has to swim in Loch Ness.

[Oryxslayer]

NI

DUP 8
SF 7
SDLP 2
Alliance 1

First HoC election with a unionist minority.

F & S Tyrone has been uncalled for some reason...

Edit: it returned like before as Sinn, though extremely close.

[Oryxslayer]

The liberal democrats have really hurt Labour in this election.

Serious questions need to asked to why they carried on standing candidates

At the count in Kensington, the voters were horrified (pro-remain) that they have a die-hard leaver representing them because the liberal democrats refused to stand down.

In High Peak, the liberal democrat was sarcastically clapped for letting the Tory in. Even in Blyth Valley (first Tory gain) the Green party were put in the awkward position of trying to explain what the benefit is of splitting the left vote for the tory to win?  

Its totally pointless for the Green Party and Liberal democrats to say that the political system is rotten or broken. You know the rules before the election and if you have zero chance of running and its a swing district then questions need to be asked why are you running in the first place?

if Labour didn't want to have vote splits, it should have approached the Lib-Dems for a pact. But such an action was beyond the pale, especially after defectors hopped over to the Orange side. A lot of people went on BBC and talked about Labour's ambivalence on these issues. The campaign was unaccountably proud, especially in their candidate selection.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW:

What’s the Oklahoma north of London on the coast ?

Do you mean Essex in general or Clacton, once the seat of the only UKIP MP.

[Oryxslayer]

Thanks for the map. Can you make one of the 2-party swing as well? We all know what it's gonna look like, but I'm still morbidly curious.

I got a prettier one with a key and title and the rest coming tomorrow, but here's the raw GIS. It's noticeable in some areas how well the swings correlate with Brexit, which themselves correlate with other demographics. In other areas, different data prevailed.