UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

Well, pre-2010 the Libs were the student party. In part this was because Labour was the government and the Lib-Dem brand is always 'Not Con' or 'Not Lab' at it's heart. However, being vocally anti-War just like the party is vocally anti-Brexit now led to the Lib-Dems doing well with the youth. This is why them flipping on tuition fees is still remembered to this day - it was a betrayal of the  student base, a base which has now in the 24-35 group.

So these voters were likely just as left as now, they just liked the Lib-Dems at the time.

[Oryxslayer]

The lib-Dems also did well in Scotland overall, just like polls expected. Their vote rose, just like the SNP's. Caithness for instance would have gone yellow if the SNP had rose and everyone else stagnated or fell. The Lib-Dem rise  in Scotland just like in England was concentrated in their target seats, like usual for the party, and NE Fife was one of those targets.

The personal backlash to Swinson in Dunbartonshire just stands out so fiercely that it overshadows the rest of the parties decent Scottish results.

[Oryxslayer]

I know the map is more hypothetical. I understand that not every Lib-Dem would go for Labour, not every Brexit voter for the Tories, and especially not every Lab or Lib voter for the SNP. However, such a map is interesting because the opposition fails to pick up some of their northern losses - they actually lose some more in certain areas. Instead, it's southern and more  urban seats where the tory majority is are reduced.

[Oryxslayer]

I also had the data and Blaenau Gwent stuck out as odd to me. Was there a prominent local candidate there? Or was Wales doing it's odd thing where it loves Labour (Westminster), but keeps sending electoral signals their way (Local elections, EU elections/Brexit, Welsh assembly) that they want Labour to seriously address Welsh foundational instability.

[Oryxslayer]

Also remember it wasn't just a case of Leave vs Remain polarization, you also had Urban vs Rural/Small-town vs various types of Suburbs polarization along with regional polarization. For instance, a Brexit constituency in Liverpool held up better than one in the east Midlands with a similar leave percentage.

[Oryxslayer]

I hate to burst your progressive coalition bubble, but they were unable to win a majority of seats with a 51-46 vote split in their favor. Now, some  of this is obviously the fact that the current map has been in use for too long and is getting into mallaportionment territory. However, most has to do with votes getting packed hard into cities. Like, the progressive coalition loses 2019 Labour seats in the Northeast thanks to Brexit.

And the SNP would never be part of some hypothetical progressive coalition, so that further bursts this bubble. I'm not arguing against looking at the London commuter region, that has to happen for Labour to win in the 2020s, I'm just pushing back on the idea that division in the  left is what doomed the country to Boris.

[Oryxslayer]

True, but the SNP were to many something scary and threatening back then - they maybe aren't so much now given that the presence of a substantial bloc of them in Westminster is more established.

That won't stop the Tories though. BoJo's 'One Nation' party is an English/British national party that rallies around the flag when the nation is slighted. Those who lack the national identity like Scottish-identifying-Scots rather than British-Identifying-Scots will always be villains trying to end the national project. It's a similar relationship to the one between PP/C's/Vox and the Catalan separatist groups.