2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[MillennialModerate]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

[MillennialModerate]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

I’m not ignoring the House and Governorships. But let’s be honest, even if they take over the house it’ll be by a 10 seat majority of something like that. Nothing major. Still good but nothing like what we had back before 2010.

And the Governorships are nice but can we win enough of them to undo the rigged gerrymandering?  Doubt if.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

A “joke”?

Heller has held on in ALOT of polls. Nevada is a lean blue state but not a shoe in by any stretch. Rosen isn’t the best canidate.

[MillennialModerate]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

And the house is now closer to Tossup than Lean D

[MillennialModerate]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

[MillennialModerate]

This thread is looking less and less as a “needless” “concern trolling” by the day.

Generic ballot has been trending up by the day... you peed your pants too quick.

False. Generic ballot trending up but not enough AND the Senate races are all slipping away.

We need to keep the Senate at 53-47/52-48 range to have any shot whatsoever of taking the Senate in ‘20 and thus having a somewhat reasonable supreme court in the future and to fix what the Trumpers have screwed up in recent years.

And at this point the GOP is gonna end up with 54 seats at a minimum and the house may be in our favor but it wouldn’t be by much. I think you’d need a tsunami like number in the generic ballot for anywhere near a GOOD wave.