My Previous Ratings are
hereRaces moving towards the Democrats:
MN:
Leans D to
Very Likely DKS:
Leans R to
TossupRaces moving towards the Republicans:
At this time, none.
Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green), Independents are in Yellow in case it becomes relevant in the future. I don't use "tilt" as a rating because I don't see it being significantly different from "lean."
A brief explanaiton of how I view each rating:
"Safe" means that the only way this race becomes competitive is if there is an unforeseen and major scandal. A "MeToo" esq level event. As a general rule for myself, I don't give Safe ratings to the non-incumbent party, although there are always exceptions.
"Very Likely" means that there is a chance this race could become more competitive, but for now one party has it under control.
"Likely" means one party is clearly favored, and by a good amount. While an upset is possible, its unlikely.
"Lean" means that one party has a slight edge, but it could still go to the other without too much bad luck.
Now for my #analysis
CT: Lamont was pretty clearly going to win the primary, the D side went as expected. The R side had a bit of an upset, Bob Stefanowski defeated several candidates and upset the state establishment to win the nomination. Mark Boughton was arguable the better candidate, but I don't see him being so much better as to move this race out of Lean D just because he lost the Republican nomination. While the Democrats are more favored than they where before the primary, I'm keeping it at Lean D for now. If there was a rating between "Lean" and "Likely", I would place it there.
VT:Much like Lamont, I never really saw Phil Scott losing the primary. There was a chance, and even a brief period last night where I thought it might actually happen, but in the end, I was right. I'm keeping this race at "Very Likely R" with the acknowledgement that that rating will likely shift towards the Democrats as the race draws on.
WI:Another primary that went exactly as I expected it to go, I am keeping the Evers vs Walker match up at Lean D, for the reasons I have always had it at lean D for. Now that Evers is confirmed to be the Democratic Candidate, I will admit that the Democrats odds have improved a bit, but much like CT, not enough for me to really change my overall rating. Like CT again, If there was a rating between "Lean" and "Likely" I would put it there.
MN:There was a bit of uncertainty going into this primary, but as Swanson's campaign imploded, Walz remained strong and pulled a convincing win in the Primary. Although I thought Walz was gonna win, I wasn't as confident in that prediction as I was the CT and WI primaries. The more interesting primary was the Republican Gubernatorial primary, where Jeff Johnson, the party endorsed Conservative candidate, upset big money Moderate Hero Tim Pawlenty. Hindsight makes this seem way more obvious that things where heading this way, but when the limited polling put Pawlenty with a 9 point lead, its understandable that I (and many others) thought Pawlenty would win. Regardless, he has lost, and may he stay out of politics forever. Anyway, with a Walz vs Johnson matchup in November, I would say smart money is on Walz. While Republicans did good in Minnesota in 2016, the deck is stacked against Johnson. The competitive House races, Klobuchar's coattails, the national environment, the other Senate election, Walz's strength as a candidate, and many more factors all work against Johnson and for Walz. Plus, the aforementioned Senate and House races will likely bring national Democrats and National money, which could further boost Walz.
KS:What a bunch of people overlooked in the excitement of last nights primaries was that Jeff Coyler has conceded to Kris Kobach in the R-Gov primary in Kansas. You could rate this race anywhere between Likely R and Lean D and while I wouldn't agree, I also wouldn't see it as too crazy. Kobach shouldn't be underestimated, and neither should Kelly, but a lot of this race, and how it is rated, is going to come down to how Strong Orman is. My personal opinion, based on his political stances and the other two candidates in the race, is that Orman will pull more from Republicans, specifically some Coyler voters, than he will from Democrats. You could argue this either way, and with a lack of polling its going to come down mostly to opinion if you agree with me or not. I could also realistically see Orman getting anywhere between 5% and 25% depending on how the campaign progresses and what kinda night November 6th ends up being. If you asked me with a gun to my head who I thought would win this race, I would give it to Laura Kelly. But I'm not confident enough in that without more polling to move this race out of Tossup.
