Will Trump be a 1 term President?

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Remember 2004, when Bush lost because everyone hated him and his foreign policy blunders? No way people would've re-elected an idiot like that.

Bush had a net positive approval rating. Trump hasn't since early January.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is a barrel full of icy water upon anyone who thinks that President Trump has a good chance or winning re-election:

Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

This is a map of disapproval ratings by state based on the latest poling data, which is either the composite data from June to August 2017 (average, I assume is Jul 15) or subsequent statewide polling. You can argue about any state, but you cannot argue that President Trump will have a very difficult time getting re-elected.


...It is difficult enough for an incumbent to get low approval ratings to get to the point at which one has a chance of winning. Incumbents seeking re-election typically campaign. Campaigning allows one to more easily eat into the potential vote of the 'undecided' than to cut into high disapproval numbers.

I remember that President Obama once faced a disapproval rating of 53% in Ohio in 2011, and that he eventually won the state. But this said, he didn't have lots of numbers that high or higher in states that he won in 2008. Maybe Indiana, but that was about it. But it is far more than one state.
 
Disapproval ratings are far stickier downward than approval ratings are sticky. At this point, President Trump must change the narrative of the low regard that he now has. Giving a few crumbs to Democrats will be too little, and too late -- and with those, Republicans will be disappointed.  Big achievements? What can really change?

The political culture of America must change in favor of the right-wing Trump agenda if he is to be re-elected.   

Utah continues to shock me.

Trump's approval rating there is barely lower than his vote share. It was the lowest percentage he got in a state he won.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

his favorables and approvals were as bad or worse during the campaign, so yes, I not only believe Trump wins again in 2020, but he will win the popular vote this time.

(heres hoping im as spectacularly wrong about that as i was about Michigan in 2016)

Incumbents have to run on a record, and usually don't face opponents as unpopular as Clinton.