Name a candidate that’s economically populist enough to win KY-Gov for Dems

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Democrats probably lose Elliott even if they win the governorship. Their winning coalition counts on Cincinnati suburbs much more than #populists. I'll post a map later.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Interesting map, but considering Amy McGrath couldn't even carry KY-06 in a D+9 environment, I don't see how Beshear even wins it by 10, let alone 20.

It's tough to see it going Democratic by 20, yeah. However, I'd say that Democrats need to win it by that much to win Kentucky.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

Here are 2015 CD margins
KY-01: 39.0%-58.0%
KY-02: 39.6%-56.7%
KY-03: 59.1%-37.6%
KY-04: 38.1%-58.3%
KY-05: 34.0%-62.7%
KY-06: 48.8%-46.2%

and swings
KY-01: R+2.0
KY-02: D+10.8
KY-03: D+12.8
KY-04: D+26.0
KY-05: R+9.1
KY-06: D+16.8


Rural areas swing R, urban areas swing D, suburbs swing very strongly D.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Here is 2011 KY Gov.



Here is 2015.



And here is my model for a narrow Democratic win in 2019.


They won't win with rural voters. To be sure, beating Clinton in coal country is part of the path to victory, but several coal counties still flip to Bevin. Where they beat him is in the 3rd, 4th and 6th districts, in the comparatively wealthy and well-educated districts.

This map depicts a 48.54%-48.27% Democratic win.

CD Results are
KY-01: 38.05%-59.03%
KY-02: 45.30%-51.60%
KY-03: 65.66%-31.39%
KY-04: 51.13%-45.32%
KY-05: 29.44%-67.20%
KY-06: 57.66%-38.24%

You really think there is a chance that a Dem can even get within single digits in KY-04?

Those three Cincinnati suburb counties didn't even trend to Hillary in 2016.

2 of them did, and the third barely trended R. This is while the state moved strongly R. Those were also the 3 counties where Rand Paul outran Trump.