Which states do you suspect will never vote Democratic or Republican again....

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The only states I'm reasonably sure will never vote for the opposite part again (at least in my lifetime) are Wyoming and DC (though it isn't a state), however, if there is a major realignment they could flip for sure.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

MT Treasurer, I'm curious why you have VA on your first map (a map you label with 99.9% confidence, which I know you're probably being mostly facetious about, but still), as opposed to a state like say, MD?

If we presume that the Fairfax County model is the wave of the future for the Dems, which in itself, I do not think is a particularly unreasonable prediction, then it would seem to me that this effect would be at least as equally pronounced, if not more so, in a state like MD.  Take, e.g., Montgomery Cty, places such as Bethesda, Rockville, and so on and so forth.

On top of that, consider that MD also has another large majority Black city (Baltimore) on top of that.  VA does have Richmond and Norfolk, but both combined are still smaller than Baltimore.  MD's Black population as a % of total population is about 10% larger than in VA.

VA is growing faster than MD, but not at such a significant rate and both states are growing.  Consider that Montgomery Cty is actually growing faster than Fairfax (and I think we know the demographics of those migrating in), and Prince George's is about equal to Fairfax (slightly less), though in fairness it should be noted that Loudoun is growing faster than all 3.  Additionally VA has a larger rural population, though neither state is particularly rural and are decreasingly so as time goes on.

Just something I was wondering.  I do find your pick of WV interesting as well, and was also considering picking it, but one reason for my hesitation would be that WV's change was so dramatic and so rapid that it leaves me to believe that there is a certain degree of elasticity in the state.  Even if it may be the case that given the current state of the Democratic Party, WV is an especially bad fit.

Great post. Yeah, I'm pretty sure VA (which is basically Maryland 1992 right now) will never vote Republican for president or Senate again in my lifetime. Maryland is already one of the most Democratic states in the country and almost maxed out for the Democrats, but you're right that there are hardly any signs of things "normalizing" there or the state trending a bit to the right, so I probably should have colored it red as well. I was simply being more cautious there, and remember - 50+ years can be an eternity in politics.

I was iffy on WV because I could see (a) the Eastern Panhandle (which right now is the most Republican part of the state in statewide races, but I don't think it will be in 50 years) growing and dramatically altering the state's politics (I know this seems incredibly implausible right now, but you never know) or - although I find that less likely - (b) the state switching again due to elasticity and some of the reasons you mentioned.

I think it's absurd to say that a state that Clinton won by 5.3% will never vote for a Republican again, I agree that it's unlikely to go red, but as things stand now, it would be one of the first blue states to flip in a GOP landslide. Perhaps in the next 20-30 years it becomes a D+15%-20% state instead of a D+5%-6% state though, we'll see.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Eh, I think Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Colorado and probably even New Mexico all flip before VA. Sure, Republicans can make the state relatively close, but getting the last 1-3% on board would require a miracle and an implosion of the Democratic candidate's campaign. It's just not going to happen, especially given how polarized we are.

I agree, I think Virginia is very inelastic and a state like New Mexico (and plausibly even Rhode Island) would be more likely to flip, and also, it's not implausible that Democrats start doing as well in NOVA as they are currently doing in the Maryland counties bordering DC, and once that happens, Virginia is titanium blue forever, barring a 50 state GOP landslide. but at the same time, I think that an exceptional GOP candidate vs a poor Democratic candidate would lead to VA going red, at least in 2020 or 2024... by 2028 it'll likely be too far gone for a Republican to win it even if they're an exceptional candidate.