German Elections & Politics

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For a very short time there was a narrow red-green majority. Now they've only got 67 seats again.
A very exciting election!

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/koalitionsrechner.shtml?e=2017-10-15-LT-DE-NI&q=sitze_krechner

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Would a traffic light be possible?

Shame Linke didn't get in. Red-red-green would've been decent.

No. Stefan Birkner, the FDP top candidate, refuses steadfastly to join a traffic light coalition. He didn't leave any option open.

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https://www.aktuelle-wahlen-niedersachsen.de/LW2017/Vision/

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So what government will be formed? If the FDP absolutely refuses to join and "traffic light" coalition and the Greens absolutely refuse to join a "Jamaica" coalition and no one wants a "grand coalition" - what happens?

Maybe a Bahamas coalition.
It is going to happen someday.

But seriously, a grand coalition will be the deal.

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I'm intrigued by the fact that both the bible belt in Western Lower Saxony and the social democratic stripe in the northwest extend beyond the Dutch-German border.

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Germans should really lower their electoral threshold. As I understand it, the main reason it's at 5 percent was to try and stop the far right entering parliament; a motivation that has been rendered irrelevant by events. Now due to the proliferation of smallish parties who could potentially fall out of legislatures (especially at a state level) you're going to see more and more wasted votes (And it's not like this would just help the left: it would prevent FDP from suffering the oblivion it did when it was allied with Merkel, and it would allow AfD to last any teething problems)

The threshold was established to prevent too many parties in general (not only the far-right) entering the Bundestag. After the last democratic Reichstag election, 14 different parties were represented in the parliament.
Btw, did you know that in the first Bundestag election the 5% threshold didn't apply to the whole of the federal territory, but only to the single states? That's why we had 11 parties (+ 3 independents) in the first Bundestag.

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The threshold was established to prevent too many parties in general (not only the far-right) entering the Bundestag. After the last democratic Reichstag election, 14 different parties were represented in the parliament.

 
 
Which is and always has been a cheep excuse. Weimar didn't failed because there was no threshold but because a majority of the electorate voted for parties who actively were against Weimar as a whole (NSDAP & KPD).

I absolutely agree. I think there has to be a threshold, but it ought to be modernized.
Almost 7,000,000 votes were nullified in 2013.

Four proposals for a fairer threshold come into my mind:

1.) Lower the threshold to 3%.
2.) Let that many below-threshold parties enter the Bundestag until the sum of the votes of the remaining parties equals less then 5% of the total vote.
3.) Establish a second parliament for the the below-threshold parties. They oughtn't allowed to vote, but they ought to have the right to table bills and to speak in front of the Bundestag.
4.) Separate the first vote from the second vote; half of the Bundestag members ought to be elected directly, the other half via lists, without any threshold.

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And if you are really that worried, why not just have regional constituencies with no thresholds? That way you would keep out the microparties unless they had a stronger level of local support.

There's one advantage of our voting system over district-only systems: If the turnout in one district is very low, it will nevertheless delegate as many members of parliament as a district with high turnout.

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The dark purple constituency encompasses Salzgitter. The city has 106,000 inhabitants and 5,700 refugees. That is one of the highest ratio in the whole federal territory so that the state government set a precedent: The influx of asylum seekers has been prohibited. This decree is also to be applied in Delmenhorst (the dark-purple colored suburb of Bremen), where half of the refugees seem to be housed by Sarah Connor , and in Wilhelmshaven in the next time. The reason why so many refugees move to those three cities is the low rent. Local residents told reporters of permanent problems with refugees.

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Is the west side of Hannover a lot poorer than the east side as it looks like parties on the left dominate it quite heavily so is like East Berlin in demographics or for a British comparison perhaps East London.

It's mainly because of the students attending the Hochschule Hannover (within that constituency) or the Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover (directly adjacent to it).
But it's also the high unemployment rate that led to the high Linke vote.

UR in the whole of Hanover: 7.8%

UR in the wards within the constituency Hanover-Linden:
Ahlem: 8.9%
Burg: 7.8%
Hainholz: 13.6%
Herrenhausen: 8.9%
Ledeburg/Nordhafen: 9.9%
Leinhausen: 7.6%
Limmer: 10.6%
Linden-Mitte: 8.5%
Linden-Nord: 9.6%
Linden-Süd: 12.4%
Marienwerder: 10.2%
Stöcken: 10.3%
Vahrenheide: 16.8%
Vinnhorst/Brink-Hafen: 7.8%

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Saxony's governor Stanislaw Tillich is going to step down in December due to the bad results in that state for his CDU in the federal election. His successor will be Michael Kretschmer, who has lost his direct mandate to the AfD and therefore won't be a member of the Bundestag anymore.

Furthermore, a debate has been raised within the SPD; current faction leader Thomas Oppermann is to become one of the new deputies of the Bundestag president - if it was up to the party leadership. Two other Social Democrats, however, have also announced their bid for that position: current deputy Ulla Schmidt and faction manager Christine Lambrecht. The crucial vote is set to take place on Monday. The Presidium of the Bundestag is currently occupied by two SPD members, which has now after the lousy election results been reduced to one.

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Today the 19th Bundestag is being constituted.

Furthermore, a debate has been raised within the SPD; current faction leader Thomas Oppermann is to become one of the new deputies of the Bundestag president - if it was up to the party leadership. Two other Social Democrats, however, have also announced their bid for that position: current deputy Ulla Schmidt and faction manager Christine Lambrecht. The crucial vote is set to take place on Monday. The Presidium of the Bundestag is currently occupied by two SPD members, which has now after the lousy election results been reduced to one.

Yesterday, former faction leader Thomas Oppermann was nominated as vice president of the Bundestag by the SPD faction with 61% - after Schmidt and Lambrecht had already withdrawn their candidacies!!!

The most interesting deputy election will result from Albrecht Glaser's nomination. The AfD politician is said to be staunchly Islamophobic, which is likely to lead to his defeat. He used to be a CDU member from 1970 till 2012. From 1997 till 2010, he was the city treasurer of Frankfurt am Main.

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The constituting session of the 19th Bundestag has just been opened.

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In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

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In the (likely) event of a Rastafari coalition, will the Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister be held by different people, i.e. Lindner as VC and Ozdemir as FM?

Until recently, this seemed likely. However, it has now been leaked that the Greens plan to pass on the Foreign Ministry in an attempt to get Environment, Agriculture or Transportation, and Labor.

In that scenario, we may get Lindner as vice-chancellor and either finance minister or minister of economy, and some CDU guy (or perhaps Von der Leyen?) as foreign minister.

That would be a genuine novelty. Does the Union even have an expert in foreign policy?

Foreign ministers often haven't been foreign policy experts beforehand and this hasn't always been a disadvantage. I think even Hans-Dietrich Genscher had no prior diplomatic or international experience.

But like I said... having been defense minister probably qualifies as having experience in foreign policy. Also, Norbert Röttgen has been chairman of the Bundestag's committee on foreign relations since 2014 (and prior experience as a cabinet minister too), although the personal relationship between him and Merkel may not be in the best shape, considering how he used to leave the cabinet.

Oh yes, that was the only time in her political career that she really showed her teeth.

But as much as I despise her, I think Uschi wouldn't be the most-baddest choice. She speaks English perfectly and fluently (unlike probably all her predecessors) and she has some foreign-policy experience. And above all, she'd be more competent on that field than on her current one. But after all, I think Cem will become the next foreign minister.

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I wanted Cem Özdemir on Foreign Affairs

Don't worry, you wish will come to fulfillment.

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The FDP are such wussies. If it comes to snap elections I really hope they get kicked out off the Bundestag again. 👿

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SPD have now come out and reiterated they will not enter another Grand Coalition, calling for fresh elections instead.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/jamaika-aus-spd-will-neuwahlen-und-stellt-sich-gegen-grosse-koalition-a-1179376.html

But they know that bringing about snap elections is rather impossible, especially since Steinmeier ruled them out.

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infratest dimap survey




The failure of "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations is opposed by 57% and supported by 31% of the respondents.




Who has to take responsibility for the failure of the "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations?




Favorability ratings:




What should come next?

Minority government: 29%
Snap elections: 63%




What should the SPD do?

Persist in their viewpoint: 50%
Form a coalition with the CDU/CSU: 44%




Opinion of a possible renewed chancellorship of Merkel?

Very good / good: 58%
Not so good / bad: 41%

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Interesting to see the divergence between single choice and multiple choice regarding who has to take responsibility for the failure of the "Jamaica" exploratory negotiations.

infratest dimap (ARD DeutschlandTrend): single choice	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF Politbarometer): mulitple choice

ZDF also includes the possibility of a grand coalition in "What to do next?", combined with a multiple choice form:

infratest dimap (ARD DeutschlandTrend): single choice	Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (ZDF Politbarometer): mulitple choice

Who do you think would profit the most from snap elections?




Who do you think would snap elections do the most damage to?

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Helmut Kohl was chancellor for 5,870 days or 16 years and 26 days, respectively.
If Angela Merkel wants to break that record, she'll need to remain chancellor until December 19, 2021.
Hence, new elections would come in handy for her...

By the way, yesterday was Merkel's twelve-year jubilee in the Federal Chancellery. 🎉

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Söder to become Bavarian state premier while Seehofer will stay on as CSU leader.

http://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-3189.html

That's not an official decision.

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Markus Söder is to become the next Bavarian minister president.
Horst Seehofer is likely to remain CSU party leader.

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Meanwhile in Bavaria: Markus Söder, who has been designated to take over the position of Minister President of Bavaria, has proclaimed that his first official act will be limiting the number of the minister president's terms to two.

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SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

Here is a list, including the number of delegates from each state:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/groko-spd-sonderparteitag-landesverbaende-1.3832477