The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[MarkWarner08]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

[MarkWarner08]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

Thanks. Harry Mitchell is the former Mayor of Tempe who beat J.D Hayworth.

NJ-02 went 55%-43% for Gore in 2000 and 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Was that the 9-11 effect, or is this district getting more Republican?

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

[MarkWarner08]

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

Unlikely. Redistricting in New Jersey (for Congress, State Legislature, and County Freeholders) are done by non-partisan commissions. Gerrymandering simply does not happen in New Jersey, it is one of the few things that we do right in this state.

Mea Culpa. I assumed the 7-6 split was created my gerrymandering. I should have done some research. I offer my humblest apologies to any offended people.

I'm sorry.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

Haha...brush up on the law, my friend.



Here...take this...




...wipe the egg off your face.

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

No, the GOP plan in the South was to trick blacks into creating majority-minority districts that packed all of the black(read 95% Democratic) voters into one district, leaving the adjecent districts whiter and heavily Republican.  This is a big part of why Republicans took control of the House in 1994. 

In Alabama in 1992, they created a 70% black district which is AL-07(now its 61% black).  The old AL-07 was about 35% black and elected blue dog Democrats.  By packing so many blacks into AL-07, they took blacks out of AL-06 which was once 40% black(now only 7%) in to defeat an incumbent Democrat.  It also took blacks out of AL-02 so the Democrat would fall short in the open seat race in November.  The Democrats lost two House seats in Alabama aloe because of this.

In Georgia in 1992, they created two heavily black districts GA-02(57%) and GA-11(64% black).  GA-02 had previously been 32% black and elected blue dog Democrats and GA-11 was new district.  Well all of this led to a drop in the black percentage in GA-01, GA-03, GA-04, and GA-08 which had all been Democratic seats.  Between the 1992 and 1994 elections, Democrats lost all five seats to Republicans as a result.

Similar situations occured in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida denying Democratic victories in another five seats.

 

Yes, operation rat, as Ben Ginsberg called it. The plan was to pack black voters into heavily black districts, thus diluting the Democratic vote in other non minority majority districts. It worked.

I think my earlier description was apt. No need to jump on a turtle that's already on its back.

[MarkWarner08]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

[MarkWarner08]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

Touche

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.

[MarkWarner08]

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.

You won't break Gerlach's base. It can't just be "someone from Chester."

Congresswoman Barbara McIlvaine Smith

[MarkWarner08]

Here's the candidate who sends shivers down Jim Gerlach's rubber stamp spine: Andy Dinniman

He's extremely popular in Ches Co. and he'll win 60% in Mont Co.

With Ches. and Mont., Dinniman will beat Gerlach by 3-5 points.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

No, the GOP plan in the South was to trick blacks into creating majority-minority districts that packed all of the black(read 95% Democratic) voters into one district, leaving the adjecent districts whiter and heavily Republican.  This is a big part of why Republicans took control of the House in 1994. 

In Alabama in 1992, they created a 70% black district which is AL-07(now its 61% black).  The old AL-07 was about 35% black and elected blue dog Democrats.  By packing so many blacks into AL-07, they took blacks out of AL-06 which was once 40% black(now only 7%) in to defeat an incumbent Democrat.  It also took blacks out of AL-02 so the Democrat would fall short in the open seat race in November.  The Democrats lost two House seats in Alabama aloe because of this.

In Georgia in 1992, they created two heavily black districts GA-02(57%) and GA-11(64% black).  GA-02 had previously been 32% black and elected blue dog Democrats and GA-11 was new district.  Well all of this led to a drop in the black percentage in GA-01, GA-03, GA-04, and GA-08 which had all been Democratic seats.  Between the 1992 and 1994 elections, Democrats lost all five seats to Republicans as a result.

Similar situations occured in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida denying Democratic victories in another five seats.

 

Yes, operation rat, as Ben Ginsberg called it. The plan was to pack black voters into heavily black districts, thus diluting the Democratic vote in other non minority majority districts. It worked.

I think my earlier description was apt. No need to jump on a turtle that's already on its back.

I like your conspiracy plan gentlemen, except Democrats drew all those minority-majority seats in the South in the states you're referring to in the early 1990s, with the implicit push of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Here's what Jeffrey Tobin wrote in the New Yorker: "It was a version of the unholy alliance which may doom Charlie Stenholm and his fellow Texas Democrats. All the congressmen who are likely to lose their jobs in the new DeLay plan are white. Many of their black constituents have been transferred to safe Democratic seats, where they can’t harm Republicans. The unholy alliance has had the additional side effect, especially in the South, of making the Democrats the party of blacks and the Republicans the party of whites—which presents daunting long-term political problems for the Democratic Party. Many Democrats can’t help but express a perverse admiration for the cleverness of the strategy. Benjamin Ginsberg, a Republican redistricting operative who helped to construct the unholy alliance during the 1990 cycle, referred to the initiative as “Project Rat.”

[MarkWarner08]

Why did  the " f****" in my reference to "Project Ratf****" get  deleted?

The New Yorker for goodness sake used that profane term. Sheesh!

[MarkWarner08]

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.

You won't break Gerlach's base. It can't just be "someone from Chester."

Congresswoman Barbara McIlvaine Smith

Ok so now you just proved to me that you are picking out names for the hell of it.

McIlvaine Smith is a freshman State Representative whose race was decided by about twenty votes in a Dem district. She would refuse to even consider a run and if, for whatever reason, she changed her mind, she is clearly not strong enough to beat Gerlach. Give me a break.

Here's the candidate who sends shivers down Jim Gerlach's rubber stamp spine: Andy Dinniman

He's extremely popular in Ches Co. and he'll win 60% in Mont Co.

With Ches. and Mont., Dinniman will beat Gerlach by 3-5 points.

Now there is someone realistic but I can tell that you still are just looking around for any Dems in the area. Dinniman is popular but I don't know where you are getting the idea that he is beloved. Also, how do you know he'd win 60% in Montco?

I love discussing these races but please brush up on the area, the candidates, etc. I remember how cocky you were about Gerlach going down in flames last year and now you're saying foolish things like Congresswoman McIlvaine Smith which anyone who follows this area's politics would know to be an absolute joke.

Dinniman will win if he runs. Remember, this district is essentially a 51/49 seat with a slight GOP edge. If the Dem wins in Ches. Co, game over.

Wofford had little money and he got 48.4%, Murphy was too liberal and she got 49% and 49.4%. The people of the 6th want change and Dinniman is that change. He can win Ches. Co and he likely get around 60% in Mont Co. due to [insert Democratic Presidential Candidate's name]  and their long coattails.

You were shocked in 2002 and 2004 and I was shocked by this seat in 2006.

The reason Jimmy boy Gerlach won was because he had what most poltical consultants consider to be the best campaign team in the country. This guy had fundraisers who worked on Presidential campaigns help him. He started his reelection campaign the day after Murphy got 49%. The fact that he only got 50.6% against an ineffectual opponent is pathetic.

[MarkWarner08]

Dinniman will win if he runs. Remember, this district is essentially a 51/49 seat with a slight GOP edge. If the Dem wins in Ches. Co, game over.

What do you know of Dinniman? Honestly, what do you know? Why would he definitely  win Chester? You do realize that breaking Gerlach's hold on 51% will be tougher in 2008, right? People have now accepted him as the ultimate survivor.

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Is it pathetic? That's fine. He'll still beat you guys though even when you swear that he is finished. You say he had one of the best campaign teams in the country and make it sound like it was a strike against him or something. Sounds like you just want to whine about why you lost. It's fine that you want to be upset about a loss but that has nothing to do with how Gerlach will do next year. I honestly have no idea why you would argue about how great his fundraisers were as well as his general team in 2006 and then say he'll lose.

As for Murphy being an "ineffectual opponent," the woman had a lot of money and some big names come in for her and she still lost. She'd lose again, too. It's going to be very hard to break that 51% and if that is a pathetic margin of victory for Gerlach, so what? He's still winning and you're still losing.

1-I didn't predict Wetterling would win the weak before the election
2-Hatch wasn't down by double digits, had trailed in every single poll, and had the race written off by the DNC and every pundit. Nor did he lose by 18 points.

Yeah, but they still lost and that's just awesome.

What do I know about Dinniman? I know he won 56-44 over some Republican you probably love. He's also very popular in Chester County. How else could he win such as conservative seat by such as lopsided majority. You're just scared he's going to beat Jim Girlach.

My point is there's no reason  Gelrach will win in 2008 if her faces Dinniman. In 2008, he won't have the advantage of being in majority party, he won't have the same fund raisers (they'll be helping the GOP nominee in their losing presidential campaign) and he won't have his top strategists either. Most of his brain trust had left for more "important" races.

Guess what % Gerlach got in Chester County in 2002? 59%


Guess what % Gerlach got in Chester County in 2004? 56%


Guess what % Gerlach got in Chester County in 2006? 55%


Do you see a pattern? Guess who's from Chester County and has won big in Chester County? Andy Dinniman

You know what happens if Gerlach can't break 55% in Ches. Co? Democrats win, that what happens.

If you think 2006 will be a better climate for Republicans, think again. John McCain is a flip-flopper, Rudy Giuliani is a liberal Democrat, Mitt Romney supports gays in the Boy Scouts and then opposed it and Sam Brownback's a nut. Your Presidential slate is a mess and Jim Girlach will suffer because of it.

Mike Fitzgerald has a better shot of winning than Jim Gerlach. Gerlach is done. If we don't get him '08, we'll nab him in '10 and if we don't get him then, we'll gerrymander him out of a district.

Focus your energy on beating Jason Altmire. You can have PA-04 and we'll take PA-06. Melissa Hart for Andy Dinniman is a fair trade.

[MarkWarner08]

It looks like Jim's getting intimate with his boyfriend, W.

[MarkWarner08]

The people of the 6th are proud that Jim stands by our wonderful President.


I hope Gerlach will explain to the citizens of the 6th District we doesn't support the reforming the Alternative Minimum Tax. Must be because he's too cozy with his Big Oil buddies who don't care about middle class families.

[MarkWarner08]

What do I know about Dinniman? I know he won 56-44 over some Republican you probably love.

Some Republican I probably love? I hardly know a thing about the lady that ran against him. I know we should have won but that's it.


 

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I have accepted the fact that there is no reason to worry for Gerlach especially after what I went through in 2006. I'm not afraid at all really. Let Dinniman run. It's going to be tough. Gerlach is more battle tested than Dinniman is.

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You made that assinine point with Lois Murphy, too.

 

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Being in the Majority party last year wasn't exactly a plus.

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Dinniman isn't as amazing as you'd like him to be. We don't even know if he is definetley running either.

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And you are a dope hack.

By the way, it's Gerlach, not Girlach.

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And Gerlach was done in 2006, too. You are such a waste of time, kid.

And it's Fitzpatrick, not Fitzgerald.

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We'll take both, thanks.

First off, Melissa Hart isn't running in 2008.

Secondly, did you see Murphy's campaign ads? She had an ad where she stared at her crotch and asked "what's going on down there?" She was going to lose, I was wrong about that race. I thought the wave would carry her incompetent ass to victory, I was wrong.

Your were wrong about Mike "Fitzgerald," Melissa Hart, Don Sherwood, Rick Santorum and Curt Weldon. I remember saying Weldwon was in trouble. You brushed me off as "ignorant." Who was right.

BTW, why has Gerlach's winning percentage gone DOWN every two years?

Really popular, huh? No refutations to my Ches. Co argument. If he loses or barely wins there, it's over for him.


Did Mitt Romney magically become principled? Did John McCain stop flip-flopping on everything. Did Rudy Giuiliani stop acting like a lberical. Oh right, Rick Santorum's out of job.

Isn't is tough to to be a conservative?  You have no leaders... You think Brownback will be your torchbearer? LOL

[MarkWarner08]

It looks like Jim's getting intimate with his boyfriend, W.

The people of the 6th are proud that Jim stands by our wonderful President.


I hope Gerlach will explain to the citizens of the 6th District we doesn't support the reforming the Alternative Minimum Tax. Must be because he's too cozy with his Big Oil buddies who don't care about middle class families.

Hilarious! Lois used one of those two pictures and the big oil and everything else with...well...everything in her campaign. I love how you use that as a point now as if it wasn't in 2006! And guess what...


Gerlach - 51%
Murphy - 49%



Get over it, kid.

Did I forget the NRCC won't have as much money to save Jimmy boy?  Also, Jim's going to have trouble raising money from his corporate fat cat firends. They don't want a loser in Congress. They want someone in the winning party.

I bet you were sad when Fitzy lost to Murphy.

Murphy:50.3%!
Fitzpatrick: 49.7% LOL

[MarkWarner08]

I forgot to mention that  Tom Cole will be too busy trying to beat Boyda to care about Gerlach. He doesn't care about another Pennsylvania Republican.

Gerlach's going to be all alone... no top consultants, no NRCC welfare and less fund raising.

[MarkWarner08]

What do I know about Dinniman? I know he won 56-44 over some Republican you probably love.

Some Republican I probably love? I hardly know a thing about the lady that ran against him. I know we should have won but that's it.


 

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I have accepted the fact that there is no reason to worry for Gerlach especially after what I went through in 2006. I'm not afraid at all really. Let Dinniman run. It's going to be tough. Gerlach is more battle tested than Dinniman is.

Tell that to Democrat Harold Volkmer of MO-09 in 1996.  He kept on narrowly scraping by his Republican opponents.  Even in 1994 he won.  But his opponent, Ken Volkmer, came back in 1996 and beat him.  Everybody assumed that if he didn't lose in 1994 he never will.  Well, he did.

Great example. BTW, his opponent was Kenny Hulshof. I think Gerlach is another Volkmer. Both Volkmer and Gerlach were out of touch with their districts.

[MarkWarner08]

And on what issues is Gerlach moderate?

Gerlach has consistently held moderate views on taxes, stem cell research, the environment to name a few.

Name one moderate vote on the environment or taxes? He opposes raising the AMT and he wasn't endorsed by any major environmental groups. Sure he supports Stem Cell research, but so many Republicans.

[MarkWarner08]

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Just one? Ok...

ANWR - http://gerlach.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=44399

Mike Fitzpatrick received a 92% rating from the LCV and earned their endosrsement; Jim Gerlach didn't. Gerlach voted for more oil drilling in the form of the Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act; Fitzpatrick voted no.

Gerlach cast a meaningless vote on a resolution that was bound to fail. The House Leadership set up the vote and when they knew it would fail, they let "moderates" like  Gerlach use it as a form of greenwashing to help them win reelection.  Unlike Gerlach, Fitzpatrick stood with the conservationists 92% of the time.  You also never responded to my AMT point.

If I'd lived in PA-08, I would have voted for Fitzpatrick in 2006.

Why did Jim Gerlach vote against the non-binding troop resolution?  If he's so moderate, why didn't he follow the path of Jim Walsh and Rep. Castle?

Phil English cast a courageous  vote for the resolution. I won't actively support English's opponent because of that brave vote. Gerlach voted with the leadership.

Jim Gerlach represents  the interests of Washington lobbyists, not the interests of the people of Norristown.

I hope Jim Gerlach spend more time listening to Phil English than he does listening to John Boehner.

[MarkWarner08]

Mike Fitzpatrick received a 92% rating from the LCV and earned their endosrsement; Jim Gerlach didn't. Gerlach voted for more oil drilling in the form of the Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act; Fitzpatrick voted no.

Gerlach cast a meaningless vote on a resolution that was bound to fail. The House Leadership set up the vote to help Gerlach win reelection.  Unlike Gerlach, Fitzpatrick stood with the conservationists 92% of the time.

Ok so when I give you evidence, you start going on about Fitz and how he got an endorsement but Gerlach didn't. What a baby. I love how this debate on the environment had nothing to do with Fitz but you brought it in so you thought you'd have a winning point.

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Good. Fitz is one of my favorite politicians of all time.

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So now you have to agree with other moderates all the time? Kid, you're really reaching for material here and you're failing in the worst sense.

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That's wonderful especially since no one even cares if English gets opposition.

English won less than 54% of the vote last time. His district is also moving towards Democrats, as is Dent's district. PA-03, PA-06 and PA-15 are all targets for the DCCC. English made a vote that counts as good politics and good policy. Gerlach made the wrong vote on the issue that has led to  the unecessary deaths of 3,000 Americans, over $400 billion and an incalculable cost in prestige. He had a chance to show he's learned from Iraq and he blew the chance.


On the most important issue of the day, Gelrach remains intransigent. Iraq will be an albatross around his neck. He underperformed in 2002 and he overperformed in 2006. Don't let his unexpected nature lull you into complacency. He will face his toughest challenge in 2008. If just another .6% of voters see the true Jim Gerlach -- it'll off to K Street.


I'm not "reaching" when I bring up the Iraq War vote. Gerlach voted for the war and against the resolution castigating the Commander in Chief for his failed plans in Iraq.

Iraq was a poignanat issue in the 2006 elections. Why else would a political neophyte who's only issue was his postion to the have have beaten Gerlach's neighbor, Mike Fitzpatrick. Today, the war is even less popular. If a strong opponent, say, Dan Wofford can run on the war issue, Gerlach with be in even more trouble. Jim's margin of error is only 3,001 votes.  Every day, as another American dies in Iraq, that margin closes.

[MarkWarner08]

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Just one? Ok...

ANWR - http://gerlach.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=44399

Mike Fitzpatrick received a 92% rating from the LCV and earned their endosrsement; Jim Gerlach didn't. Gerlach voted for more oil drilling in the form of the Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act; Fitzpatrick voted no.

Gerlach cast a meaningless vote on a resolution that was bound to fail. The House Leadership set up the vote and when they knew it would fail, they let "moderates" like  Gerlach use it as a form of greenwashing to help them win reelection.  Unlike Gerlach, Fitzpatrick stood with the conservationists 92% of the time.  You also never responded to my AMT point.

If I'd lived in PA-08, I would have voted for Fitzpatrick in 2006.

Why did Jim Gerlach vote against the non-binding troop resolution?  If he's so moderate, why didn't he follow the path of Jim Walsh and Rep. Castle?

Phil English cast a courageous  vote for the resolution. I won't actively support English's opponent because of that brave vote. Gerlach voted with the leadership.

Jim Gerlach represents  the interests of Washington lobbyists, not the interests of the people of Norristown.

I hope Jim Gerlach spend more time listening to Phil English than he does listening to John Boehner.

I don't know why Gerlach voted against the resolution.  That is going to come back to bite him in 2008.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[MarkWarner08]

English won less than 54% of the vote last time. His district is also moving towards Democrats, as is Dent's district. PA-03, PA-06 and PA-15 are all targets for the DCCC.

PA 3 is a target? Amazing! I love when you guys waste money!

 

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You have a weird obsession with Jim Gerlach of all people. Very odd.

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Yawn...and he'll win again.

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Uh, you're reaching with the Iraq vote when the issue was the environment. 

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You're right that that's the reason why Fitz went down but please notice that just because someone in neighboring district went down doesn't mean that you are going to go down, too. If Gerlach didn't get beaten over Iraq in 2006, why would he go down in 2008 because of that issue?

 

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Dan Wofford was a weak candidate so please, please, please get him to run again.

A weak candidate?  He almost beat Gerlach in an awful year for Democrats.

49% when Democrats were losing seats in both chambers and Bush had a 60=% approval is a great showing. You're scared of his candidacy.

The reason you obsess over Gerlach is because he was the only targeted Republican left standing in the Keystone State in 2006.

You never answered by assertion about the Iraq War vote be a bad vote from him. Phil English is still vulnerable. Gerlach is still not being endorsed by the LCV.

The DCCC is still going to come after him. Nothing's changed for '08, except Gerlach won't have his same campaign team in place. They'll be busy helping Romney, McCain or Giuliani lose.

Your top candidates are either 72 years old, Mormon or  have had triple divorces. Giuliani was once married to his cousin of all people!

I care about beating Gerlach because he's out of touch with the 6th district. He's better fit Illinois's 6th, then Penn's 6th.