official SC Democratic results thread

[MarkWarner08]

More Democratic absentee ballots have been issued than Republican ballots, which hasn't occurred in years.

If we can somehow get higher turnout than the GOP in South Carolina... hoo boy, November will be fun.

Yeah, Democrats might break 43%!

[MarkWarner08]

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Any idea how these counties break down?

I heard Charleston might help Edwards.

Moore beat Sanford by 26 points in Marlboro. Would it be accurate to infer that this county is majority black?

[MarkWarner08]

Looking back at Iowa and NH, the exit polls should give us a pretty clear indication of who won. If you abstract the results from gender, here's the numbers you get:

Iowa
Obama: 35%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 23%

NH
Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 17%

In fact, those NH are dead on. We really shouldn't've been that surprised back then as the night wore on after seeing those.

I thought even the exit polls showed an Obama win (even if it was only by 1-2 pts)?  Am I misremembering, or is this a "let's fudge our numbers after the results come in to save our hide" scenario?

The original exit polls had Obama winning by about 1.5% in NH.  they readjust the numbers once the actual results are known.  whether that constitutes 'fudging' is open to debate.

Doesn't that help refute the Bradley Effect argument? If Obama was up by 1.5% and lost by 2%, that's not a huge shift. Although voters were dishonest about their preference when they spoke to pollsters, they were honest when talking to exit pollsters.

[MarkWarner08]

MSNBC reports:

56% think Obama attacked unfairly, 70% think Clinton did (74% of blacks)

That doesn't foreshadow the results... Remember, NHers thought Obama was the most electable Democrat.

[MarkWarner08]

Bill Clinton effect was actually only 25% very important, somewhat important was another 31%

Thanks posting those results.. Those of us w/o MSNBC greatly appreciate it.

[MarkWarner08]

Its nearly guaranteed that Clinton won't win tonight, because there haven't been any crying.

And don't forget vote suppression in Nevada...

[MarkWarner08]

She could be boned if she loses by like 16 points.

Fortunately for Obama, recent polls have indicated a tighter race. This will help with the post-SC spin effort. If Obama does win by 10+, he could narrow the national gap to around five points.

[MarkWarner08]

She could be boned if she loses by like 16 points.

Are you using the Futurama definition of that word?

[MarkWarner08]

68% of WHITES think Clinton attacked Obama unfairly!!!

What % of whites think the same of Obama's attacks? If that number is low, Obama might be headed to a 10+ point win.

[MarkWarner08]

Anybody else expecting a quick night?

After all the money Hillary has spent in SC.. anything less than a victory will be devastating to her campaign.

Memo to Wolfson: Two can play the spin game!

[MarkWarner08]

Anybody else expecting a quick night?

After all the money Hillary has spent in SC, I doubt it.

Actually Edwards has spent the most money in SC

I was just tweaking the Clintonistas who are now claiming FL>SC in terms of importance.

[MarkWarner08]

I predict Clinton will only get 30-35% of the white vote.

If that happens, Hillary will probably end up with <25% of the total vote.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama's massive victory is a strong repudiation of disgusting attack politics...

[MarkWarner08]

So who wants to throw out the "Reverse Bradley Effect Charge" charge?

The Bradley Effect didn't happen in NH or SC. Period.

[MarkWarner08]

Does this qualify as a "convincing victory"? Seriously, it's possible that tonight's win could close the CA gap to single digits.

[MarkWarner08]

I hope the media will treat it that way... The reason Obama rose so much from Iowa was the media's coverage of the event. If this is considered a resounding win, perhaps the media will stop with the "Clinton is unstoppable" meme.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama's ground team manager in South Carolina was the same one that masterminded his win in IA. He's 2 for 2. He didn't manage NH. I hope Obama sends him right to California now.

What's his name? This guy might be the next Michael Whouley.

[MarkWarner08]

Michigan:

Hillary Clinton: 55.2% (327,524 out of 592,972)

South Carolina:

Barack Obama: 55.4% (295,214 out of 532,468)

Unbelievable...

[MarkWarner08]

blacks comprised 20% of the NY Democratic primary electorate in 2004

Sounds about right.  They could be higher in this one.  Of course, he'll get killed in all those upstate cities and among the Jews and Catholics (and probably the Hispanics and Chinese in the city), but it won't be an embarrassment, probably.

Remember this story? http://tinyurl.com/27rt2e

[MarkWarner08]

Obama's SC manager was Steve Hildebrand. He's the same man who delivered the GOTV effort in Shannon County that gave Tim Johnson his 524 vote win. This guy is really good.

[MarkWarner08]

Congrats to Obama. This is an impressive win and after all the mudslinging it's not surprise that he was able to emphasize the positives. I really hope Hillary will run a campaign more focused on the positives in the next week.

If more Hillary supporters were as gracious and magnanimous as you, I'd be more inclined to support your candidate in the general. I wish you'd talk to those Clinton folks on MYDD and Hillaryis44 who insist on tearing down Obama and Edwards.