IN-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Hill with a moderate lead over Sodrel

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

[MarkWarner08]

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?

Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 

Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 

Yeah. I'd say the same for IN-02.  The DCCC had the most recruiting success last cycle in IN U.S. House races. Convincing Donnelly to run again (he'd won a respectable 45% in 2004), finding a Sheriff to run agains Hostettler and bringing back Baron were all solid moves that paid off. Even Tom Hayhurst was a decent candidate.