These will go Democrat: CO, NH, MN.
OR could go either way. North Carolina is possible but leans to the bad side.
LA will stay with Landrieu.
So, the Democrats will gain 3-5 seats. Nice.
I find your wild-eyed optimism inspiring.
I don't find yours inspiring - I think it's pathetically out of touch with reality.
Anyway.
I believe Colorado, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Oregon are the Democrats' best opportunities for making gains in the Senate - in that order.
In New Hampshire, Sununu is clearly out of touch with the electorate as his votes on the Iraq War and Stem Cell Research have demonstrated. I now don't expect Jeanne Shaheen to run - but I still think the two Democratic candidates Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett are capable of defeating him. New Hampshire has caught up with the rest of the North East and the political earthquake that took place there in 2006 indicates a seismic shift. Although neither Marchand or Swett are well-known and there has been no polling so far, its a small enough state for them to catch up in 2008. In the end I think Marchand will win the Primary and end up beating Sununu by around 52%-47%.
Given that Coleman won due to the climate of 2002 and the debacle of Paul Wellstone's funeral I maintain that he is clearly vulnerable. Minnesota is a Democratic state that in 2004 and 2006 demonstrated it is getting more Democratic. Fine, Pawlenty was re-elected but narrowly and with under 50% of the vote, and the Democrats enjoyed many successes. Coleman is an opportunist running in a Presidential year; admittedly, neither Franken or Ciresi are the best candidates (which is a question on its own) and I do wonder and worry about Franken - but I am hopeful that Ciresi will ultimately prevail. Once there is an established Democratic candidate with the DFL machine and the dynamics of the Presidential race, Coleman is beatable.
Oregon has been disappointing of late and its another question of why decent candidates have not emerged in a thoroughly winnable race. Like Sununu and Coleman, Smith is a Republican incumbent in a Kerry state in a Presidential year that favours the Democrats. I think Oregon will be close and tough right up until the end but with the right candidate Smith should be defeated.
