Poor Chet Edwards -- forever on the "Watch List." Oh, the vicissitudes of life as a Southern Caucasian Democratic Congressman.
His opponent is a third-tier candidate who lost Republican primaries back in 2000 and 2002 to face Edwards. I don't really consider him in any danger. Of course, the Republican will probably get 40% just by being there, but that doesn't win elections.
Remember though, that they would need to hold the House until after the 2010 elections in order to have any say so in designing maps. And rural west Texas will likely be squeezed into fewer and fewer Congressional districts anyways. Just something to keep in mind.
If Democrats can get the state House for the 2012 redistricting, a few significant changes are likely to happen. First, Republicans are not going to be allowed to split the Democratic base in Tarrant county between four different districts. A fair district will likely be created that inculdes all of Fort Worth(including its blacks which Republicans also split pretty thin). This district would likely elect a Democrat. Then Democrats will likely force Republicans to create fairer distrist in Dallas. This would likely require linedrawers to "unpack" some minority voters that are segregated into the TX-30 in order to keep them from having any significant influence in nearby districts.
Don't disagree, though some compromise may be worked out in that situation, especially considering where the new CDs are going to be.
Republicans will likely get the new districts, while Democrats would be given a shot at some of the existing districts as Republican territory is pared away to create new ones.
Some of the Dallas-area Republicans could be threatened, like Pete Sessions. They were reduced to below 60% of the vote in 2006, and Bush lost ground in this area in 2004. It was traditionally Republican-terain that elected his father to the House in 1966 - wealthy, white suburban and urban voters who care more about a candidate's economic than social values. In the next few years perhaps the right kind of Democratic candidate could stage a comeback to win here - someone with Clintonesque economic virtues.
