Rothenberg House ratings

[Adlai Stevenson]

All seats not listed are considered safe.

PURE TOSS-UP (5 R, 4 D)

FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
PA 10 (Carney, D)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NM 1 (Open; Wilson, R)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (3 R, 0 D)

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 8 (Bean, D)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

LEAN REPUBLICAN (11 R, 0 D)

CT 4 (Shays, R)
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R)
NJ 7 (Ferguson, R)
NY 25 (Walsh, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
OH 16 (Regula, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (0 R, 9 D)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
GA 12 (Barrow, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
MN 1 (Walz, D)
NY 19 (Hall, D)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
OH 18 (Space, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (15 R, 0 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)
CA 4 (Doolittle, R)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
IL 14 (Open; Hastert, R)
MI 7 (Walberg, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
NJ 3 (Saxton, R)
NY 13 (Fosella, R)
PA 14 (Murphy, R)
VA 2 (Drake, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)
WY AL (Cubin, R)

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (0 R, 10 D)

AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
CT 5 (Murphy, D)
IN 2 (Donnelly, D)
IN 8 (Ellsworth, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
ME 1 (Open; Allen, D)
PA 7 (Sestak, D)
PA 8 (Murphy, D)
TX 23 (Rodriguez, D)

I wouldn't put any Democratic incumbent in the Toss-Up category yet, every race with a Democratic incumbent should at least be in the Tilt Democrat category at the outset. 

NM-1, OH-15 Could Tip to Democrats

The latest Evans-Novak Political Report suggests New Mexico's first congressional district could tip towards Democrats with Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) announcing her intentions to run for U.S. Senate. "The district is 42 percent Hispanic, which puts it almost totally outside GOP reach: Republicans represent only five of the 41 other congressional districts that are one-third or more Hispanic." The race is rated "Leaning Democratic Takeover."

Meanwhile, in Ohio's 15th congressional district, Novak suggests the GOP "may have given up on the seat currently held by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH)" with several strong Democratic candidates likely to run. The race is rated "Likely Democratic Takeover."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/10/nm1_oh15_could_tip_to_democrats.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

As of now, it's 77 House Republicans; 17 senators / 54 House Democrats; 5 senators with Democratic House majorities in only Arkansas (3D / 1R), North Carolina (7D / 6R) and Tennessee (5D / 4R)

Dave

What states are including as Southern for those numbers? Thats only 11. The South has 16 States. It includes Maryland, Delware and Oklahoma; even though the media and many forumers don't consider the first 2 to be truly Southern anymore.

I think he means the 11 states of the Confederacy - Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.  From what he is saying I think we may have read the same book, The Rise of Southern Republicans, which basically looked at the transformation of Southern Congressional politics from an overwhelmingly Democratic bastion to one of two-party competetiveness with a Republican tilt.

Its interesting yet hardly surprising that the states which first shifted to the Republicans in the South, i.e. Florida and Virginia, are now the ones that Democats are becoming competetive in again at the state and presidential level.  The argument can't be made for Texas, although that remained strongly Democratic at the state level into the 1990s.  The strongest Republican states in the South at the moment seem to be Georgia and Louisiana; the former was Democratic territory really into the 1990s again while Louisiana seems to have turning rightward since about 2000, with a pronounced tilt towards the GOP since Katrina.