Obama 49/Romney 49

[Jacobtm]

Let's say it's Romney v. Obama and the PV splits 49/49, with 2% going to minor candidates. Who wins? What's the map look like?

Romney's ''tough talk'' on immigration kills him in Nevada and New Mexico, but Coloradoans find it easier to cozy up to a moderate Republican. OH and FL slip away from Obama due to loss of popularity. VA and Iowa stay out of Romney's grasp cause he just isn't conservative enough, and Obama pours a ton of money into the two states. NH loves to flip flop as much as Romney does.

All in all, Obama squeaks by, 272-266

[Jacobtm]

Crazy to be predicting such simmilar maps. Wonder if it'll turn out anything like this in 13 months...

[Jacobtm]

I am guessing that Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are about the political average. All in all, a 49-49 split of the popular vote is an even split, and a state close to the national average is a pure tossup.

Not quite.

In NC in '08, for example:

Obama: 49.7%
McCain: 49.4%
Barr: .6%

Arguably, Barr was a spoiler candidate who allowed Obama to win. So in a close national race, those candidates who take a small percent of the vote can actually be pivotal.

NC gave more than 50% of its vote to the ''not Obama'' crowd. But that little split allowed Obama to walk away with it.