State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

OK SD 37 is 67/27 Trump
OK SD 45 is 67/27 Trump
OK HD 76 is 65/30 Trump

OK SD 45 voted 56-43 Republican in this special election, a 26 point swing since 2016.

I don't expect a win in any of these special elections tonight.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Florida dems suck so hard. In before LimoLiberal wets his bed again.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is rather embarrassing for Florida Dems though. They have yet to overperform in a special to date, and I'm pretty sure that's the only state they're consistently underperforming Clinton in. They should just fire their whole leadership and bring in the people who run Virginia Democratic Party.

Seriously. How do they suck so much?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

Isn't Wilson to the left of this district as a whole? Trump only won it by 69.5 - 25.5 compared to 72.2 - 23.8.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

It was the least pro-Trump county out of all the counties in the district.

But less elastic than the other counties.

How do you know that it is less elastic?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wealthier and more suburban.

Those districts have been the most elastic throughout 2017 though (see Virgina Beach and Shelby county), which kind of ruins your entire point.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys do realize that yesterday night was a very big event in the Atlanta area? There was a University of Georgia (my school) vs Alabama championship (We lost )

Who the hell gives a damn about an election the day after a huge football event lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

SC House 99: 58-35 Trump (66-32 Romney)

IA House 6: 62-33 Trump (54-44 Romney)

WI Senate 10: 55-38 Trump (52-46 Romney)

WI Assembly 58: 67-28 Trump (68-31 Romney)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hot take time! The average Dem overpreformance when compared to Trump tonight was about 21.5%. For the upcoming PA-18 election, this is just barely over Trumps 19.6% margin in 2016. This just makes me sad about GA-06, and how the race was nationalized, and we couldn't see these huge swings in a seat that was easily flippable. Enough past regrets though, there is a new Dem in the Wisconsin Senate, and the dem margin in special elections is back on track with past performances.

I wouldn't get too hopeful about PA-18. It's a pretty tough race. I'm expecting Saccone to win by 9%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans apparently think they can win PA 35...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/952962611498414080

They thought yesterday was a red wave because they won 4 out of 5 seats, ignoring that Trump won all of those seats in landslides.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

This proofs that one bizarre Minnesota poll means nothing

You may have a point.   But the real question is this result caused by energized Democrat turn out or a switch of Trump voters.  My gut feeling is the former is primary.  it is certainly enough to cause an Atlas red wave in November.  (GIVE ME BACK MY BLUE). It is coming.  So many average Democrats dislike Trump so much that if they were shot they would go vote before going to the hospital.

Another factor is Hillary voting Republicans not coming home.  This might be countered, if Trump changed his demeanor, but I am afraid he is not that politically insightful.

 To be honest French Hill in Arkansas could be in danger.

So the Minnesota poll could be true, but it’s result will not save The GOP in November.

Don't forget third party voters leaning towards democrats. In a lot of polls I've seen, third party voters/non 2016 voters are leaning dem over republicans by a 2:1 margin. Trump often only has about 20% approval from this group too.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

To be fair, that's a Florida state legislative special election. 1) Polling there is likely going to be very off the mark 2) It's Florida, so democrats will probably underperform that poll by 20% cuz Florida dems are hot garbage.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How did all of these districts vote in 2016?

Edit:

MO-39 - 71-24 Trump, 50-41 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 4 to 1 Republican
MO-97 - 61-33 Trump, 53-40 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 1.5 to 1 Republican
MO-129 - 80-16 Trump, 50-42 Akin, Fundrasing advantage: 12 to 1 Republican
MO-144 - 78-19 Trump, 51-43 McCaskill, Fundrasing advantage: 2 to 1 Democrat

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Revis wins. D+1.

Can you explain how Revis is winning? I know he's winning now, but what do the rest of the counties that haven't voted look like?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

More proof that the Midwest is the most elastic region of the country. The Dems should be focused on it for 2020. The sunbelt "muh demographics" is either going to happen or it isn't, but the biggest swing vote susceptible to candidate & message will be in the Midwest.

Yeah, while I think Georgia is rapidly trending D, there aren't that many swing voters here. Unless you're going for aggressive grassroots organization miniority outreach (e.g Stacey Abrams), it's best not to target Georgia much in a close race.

Arizona does seem to be a bit swingier tho -- it swung 8% from 2012 --> 2016.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           44 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican   2,998   52.624%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   2,699   47.376%
    Total Votes:   5,697   


Full statement on tonight coming shortly.

Thanks for the update. Great victory for the GOP!

Looks like Scott Pressler has an atlas account.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/962743138786914305

Looks like Good is favored to win in FL HD-72 now.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Florida dems are so incompetent that even registered dems are voting gop in this election.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Lookin' like a seven and four point under performance for Rs compared to 2016 results in HD-23b and SD-54, respectively. Both are under performances compared to 2012. I'm interested into what the results would be if this election was on a Tuesday instead.

I don't see why the election being on a Monday would change anything, but I'm interested in hearing what you think would change and why.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This is going to be the most blazingly hot take you've heard in a while: There's going to be a 60 point margin swing in favor of dems tomorrow in Oklahoma. Trump won this district by like 75 so it's still going to be a D loss.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Given some of the recent performances in specials, a pretty poor performance for Democrats. Wonder why.

It was a Trump district that Republicans ran their strongest possible recruit in and the Democrat won by 4 points still.

Fair enough, but what about 23B? Given it was only a narrow Romney seat Dems should've done better than a 20 point loss.

Sometimes it just doesn't work out. These wouldn't be the first weak(er) performances of the post-2016 elections, though. They probably won't be the last either.

Don't forget Georgia...

Also Democrats are trying to win a 49-47 Clinton house seat in Connecticut where a R retired mid-term. Watch for a big R win there.

I would heavily consider voting R statewide if I lived in Connecticut.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

holy  fl reports fast lol

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I said there would be a 60 point swing in OK cuz #balls. Looks like the swing is going to be pretty big but I won't take credit unless the swing is over 50 pts

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Jensen is performing rather well. Good on her.

Tbf it's Oklahoma. 30 point D swings are the norm here because of how hard the local Republicans have f'd up.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It is tiring to see the massive Republican over-performance in Connecticut special elections. It makes no sense that Republicans there are over-performing their 2016 numbers, when they are under-performing everywhere else.

There's a reason you're seeing gigantic swings in Oklahoma but backwards swings in CT: state politics are... local

The democrats in Connecticut messed up the state (specifically Dan Malloy).

The local Republicans in CT tend to be more moderate.

Therefore a lot of people who voted Clinton are much more inclined to vote for CT Republicans. I would highly consider voting republicans locally if I lived in CT.