Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged? (user search)
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  Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?  (Read 5884 times)
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« on: October 26, 2019, 01:51:00 AM »

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,835
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2019, 02:07:46 AM »

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.


Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen
Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.
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