Tasmanian state election - 3rd March 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I figured that with the election but a week and a half away I should probably start up a thread specifically for the Tassie election, at least so I don't clog up the Aussie general discussion thread with 5 minutely election night updates.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So firstly Tasmania.

Tasmania uses Hare-Clark STV using the 5 federal divisions as electorates, with 5 members elected form each, resulting in 25 total members of the House of Assembly.

Braddon
Looking at a map you might think that Braddon is based on Tasmania's west coast, but you'd be wrong. The rugged, near-impenetrable wilderness of Tasmania's west coast is almost completely uninhabited. The population is centred on the Northwest coast, concentrated in Devonport and Burnie.
The Liberals will lose their fourth seat. Full Stop. The two questions are; firstly whether the Liberals lose their third seat, in which case Labor gain one and Lambie gains one, and more importantly, given that if the Liberals maintain 3 seats in any electorate, it'll be here, is who gains that fourth Liberal seat.
On balance I can't really see the Liberals dropping to two seats, so the important question is whether Lambie or Labor win that fourth seat. I have no idea, though when pushed I'd lean Labor.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
0-1 JLN
2 Vulnerable seats:
Fourth Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Liberal Hold


Bass
Bass is squarely centred on Tasmania's second city, Launceston. It also stretches to include the East Bank of the Tamar and the North East Coast.
Two seats are vulnerable, the third Liberal seat and the Greens seat, both to Labor. The question is if Labor can increase their vote enough for a second seat, and if they can then who do they take it from, the Liberals or the Greens.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
0-1 GRN
2 Vulnerable seats:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain
Green seat - Prediction: Greens Hold


Lyons
Lyons is a classic example of a bits-leftover electorate, containing many different regions that don't logically fit elsewhere. Spanning Tasmania's picturesque East Coast, the agricultural heartland of the Midlands, the West Bank of the Tamar, the northern suburbs of Hobart, the outskirts of Launceston and Devonport and all points in-between.
The vulnerable seat is the third Liberal seat. Though, in my opinion, slightly less vulnerable than their third seat in Franklin, by virtue of the reduced greens vote, it's still rather vulnerable. Unlike Franklin however, the seat is vulnerable to both Labor and the Greens. Although the Greens will improve I can't see them beat Labor and the Liberals to take the third seat.
2-3 LIB
2-3 LAB
0-1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain


Franklin
Franklin spans Hobart's suburbs and outskirts, stretching to include Tasmania's uninhabited South West Wilderness.
The vulnerable seat is the Third Liberal seat. The Liberals where extremely lucky to get a third seat here in 2014, and this is probably their second most vulnerable seat behind their fourth in Braddon. I think Labor is definitely favoured to pick up a second seat. The greens seat isn't especially safe, but neither is it vulnerable.
2-3 LIB
1-2 LAB
1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Third Liberal seat - Prediction: Labor Gain


Denison
Denison contains Hobart's quaint CBD and inner suburbs.
The only vulnerable seat is the second Liberal seat to Labor, though if Labor picks it up then then they're almost certainly got more seats than the Liberals.
2-3 LAB
1-2 LIB
1 GRN
1 Vulnerable seat:
Second Liberal seat - Prediction: Liberal Hold

Total Results

9-11-14 LIB (-1-4-6)
7-11-12 LAB (+0-4-5)
2-3-4 GRN (-1/+0-1)
0-1 JLN (+0-1)

Some of my thoughts, if I get time I'll go through the five seats individually, though I don't know if I'll get time, what with profiling each and every one of the 47 SA electorates ahead of their ekection.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

An important thing to keep in mind is that if the Greens do hold the balance of power they're not certain to go with Labor. The Tassie Greens can be traced back to the 1972 founding of the United Tasmania Group, the widely accepted first green/environmentalist party in the world. They took off during the Lake Pedder/Franklin Dam debacle and haven't looked back since. Because they're so (relatively) old the party isn't as ideological. Their policy centres around the environment, and aren't that left-wing. They supported Tony Rundle's Liberal government form '96 to '98, which collapsed, however their first government with Labor fell apart a year short (the Labor–Green Accord after '89). If the Libs are by far the largest party, or they get 12 seats, just one short of a majority, their is a good chance that the Greens will back Hodgman.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

2 new polls indicate that there's a good chance of the Libs holding onto their Majority.
ReachTEL for The Mercury LIB:46 LAB:31 GRN:12
ERMS LIB:46 LAB:34 GRN:12

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the odds I'd say it's 50/50 whether or not the Liberals maintain the majority. Labor will not get a majority, the greens will not gain net seats. I'd say it's 2-1 in favour of the greens losing net seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

My Current Prediction:
LIB - 13 (-2)
LAB - 10 (+3)
GRN - 2 (-1)

With the changing seats being
Bass GRN -1 to LAB
Braddon LIB -1 to LAB
Franklin LIB -1 to LAB

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just incase anyone needs a reference point here is the electorate map

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just incase anyone needs a reference point here is the electorate map

Interesting. So in Tasmania they use multi-member constituencies?

Yep! They adopted Hare-Clark STV in 1909, and haven't turned back since.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

An important thing to keep in mind is that if the Greens do hold the balance of power they're not certain to go with Labor. The Tassie Greens can be traced back to the 1972 founding of the United Tasmania Group, the widely accepted first green/environmentalist party in the world. They took off during the Lake Pedder/Franklin Dam debacle and haven't looked back since. Because they're so (relatively) old the party isn't as ideological. Their policy centres around the environment, and aren't that left-wing. They supported Tony Rundle's Liberal government form '96 to '98, which collapsed, however their first government with Labor fell apart a year short (the Labor–Green Accord after '89). If the Libs are by far the largest party, or they get 12 seats, just one short of a majority, their is a good chance that the Greens will back Hodgman.

The issue is more that there's a large element in Tassie Labor that hate them.

And likewise in the Greens, look at how the Labor-Greens accord fell apart. Labor gets big donations from the Forestry unions, and draws significant support from the Lumber industry.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It's election day!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Here we go!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oh god, the ABC had Eric Abetz representing the Libs on the panel.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

And polls are closed!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The seat to watch is Lyons, because the 3rd Liberal in Lyons is the Liberals 13th seat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Latest Jacqui Lambie: Right off the bat, one minute into her interview with the ABC she's already said cr#p twice.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Particularly slow counting this time round, normally you have a few tiny Lyons booths reporting by quarter past, however absolutely nothing in by half past this time round.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We have our first results from Bass!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We now have the first booths from Braddon and Lyons!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Abetz is already under my skin, god I hate his guts. I'm simply ashamed to call him a fellow Liberal

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The gun issue is going to hurt the Liberals in Franklin and Denison, however that doesn't particularly matter. We're going to lose the 4th in Braddon, and the third in Franklin was always an odds on gain for Labor. The seat which matters is the third in Lyons, and to a lesser extent the third in Bass, and the gun issue is if anything going to help us in these seats. Unless we lose our second in Denison the gun issue shouldn't really hurt us.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Even though I'm a Liberal I sort of hope that we lose because if we win Abetz will be sooooo smug. And smug Abetz is the most unbearable Abetz.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First booths in from Franklin.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Antony's given away three seats in Bass, Peter Gutwein (the Treasurer) and Michael Ferguson for the Liberals and Michelle O'Byrne for Labor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Although I really like Hodgman I sort of want him to lose because I love seeing Abetz's face when in defeat.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Abetz is just being a complete idiot, talking about how "If you want to see Labor's policy in 5 years look at the Greens"