That's the lowest for McCain in many months. *Too* low, in my opinion. I definitely think he has a better than 37% chance of winning the nomination. Yes, he has his vulnerabilities, but that's not exactly a first rate crop of candidates he's running against!
If we say that the Big 3 of Romney, Rudy, and McCain are the only Republicans with a chance at the nomination, then they should each have around 33%. If anything McCain's is too high, and I'm still puzzled as to why most of the forum considers McCain to be a shoe-in for the nomination.