ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone know if Emily Cain is running again?  A google search would not yield any conclusive results.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone know if Emily Cain is running again?  A google search would not yield any conclusive results.

She'd just lose again, so why do you care?

If she was running, she would have a substantial chance of winning the primary (again), but then an abysmal chance of winning the general; I hope she is not running, because her running would increase the chances of a another Poliquin win.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Untrue. ME-02 voted Republican quite often before 1992.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Golden is basically a carbon copy of Conor Lamb.

Much easier district to win too. Trump I think was the first Republican to win here since Herb.

Untrue. ME-02 voted Republican quite often before 1992.

Herb = George HW Bush FTR.

I instantly thought it meant HERBert Hoover, and instantly believed the post was incorrect.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If not for gerrymandering, Bruce Poliquin would have certainly lost the 1st preference vote, and the final preference vote would not have been close.

Under a fair map, the 2-Party vote in the 2016 presidential election in the 2nd District drops from about Trump + 11 to about Trump + 6.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If not for gerrymandering, Bruce Poliquin would have certainly lost the 1st preference vote, and the final preference vote would not have been close.

Under a fair map, the 2-Party vote in the 2016 presidential election in the 2nd District drops from about Trump + 11 to about Trump + 6.

Yeah, LePage basically ordered his hometown of Waterville into the first district (went something like 90-10 to Obama in 2008).

The crazy part is that my calculations of a fair map result in ME-02 indicate:

Very slightly worse performance for Kerry 2004 in the fair ME-02 than in the real ME-02.
Almost identical performance for Obama 2008 in the fair ME-02 as in the real ME-02.
Very slightly better performance for Obama 2012 in the fair ME-02 than in the real ME-02.
Much better performance for Clinton 2016 in the fair ME-02 than in the real ME-02.

Basically Maine Republicans drew a gerrymander that was successful at predicting future trends where there was no present evidence that those trends would happen when they drew the map.

Compare this to Tennessee Republicans and Arkansas Democrats who saw recent trends and assumed those trends would reverse themselves, and cost themselves a seat in the process compared to what they could have obtained.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yeah, I don’t get why Republicans are getting so worked up over this result, it was always obvious that RCV would help Golden here. Sure, he’s a strong candidate, but beating a flawed incumbent by 1% in a massive Democratic wave doesn’t mean that he won’t be very vulnerable in a more favorable year for Republicans.

I got no doubt we take him out in 2020. I’m just not sure who we run here. I doubt LePage wants to be a congressman

2020 is not going to be a "more favorable year for Republicans".

It will be another medium Democratic wave election, just like 2018 was.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Golden just needs to make it through 2020, I think ME-2 can be shored up in redistricting more in a way to make it at least favorable to Dems.

pretty sure redistricting in maine is 2/3 of legislature.
I don't see dems getting that

ME-02 is gerrymandered to unfairly favor Republicans as is. Any Congressional Map not drawn with specific pro-Republican intent in its design would make ME-02 more Democratic, possibly substantially so.

I have calculated what the results would be in a hypothetical fair Maine Congressional Map for ME-02, and Trump would only win ME-02 in 2016 by 6 points in said fair map instead of the 11 points he won it by in the actual map.

All Democrats need to do to make this District more Democratic after the next redistricting is to prevent Republicans from taking full control over the process, which is something that they already have as a locked in accomplishment.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

(which would result in Chellie Pingree's residence of North Haven ending up in the 2nd district)

The people of Maine do not care about this type of thing.

Republican Olympia Snowe was able to consistently win the ME-02 House seat in the early 1990s and the 1980s while she was living in ME-01 the entire time, always by landslide margins and in spite of the District often being much more Democratic in other levels.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

lol

https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/1067846802915897344

Were those votes ever Counted towards the overall total?