2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is anyone else feeling bothered by the fact that an anti-Pelosi Democrat won the IL-12 Democratic nomination, which is a District that voted for Obama twice, and elected a Pelosi supporter in 2012.

Democrats should not be lowering standards like this is in these types of Districts.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is anyone else feeling bothered by the fact that an anti-Pelosi Democrat won the IL-12 Democratic nomination, which is a District that voted for Obama twice, and elected a Pelosi supporter in 2012.

Democrats should not be lowering standards like this is in these types of Districts.

No. Brendan Kelly is a stunning recruit.

No he is not. He is running as an anti-Pelosi Democrat in a District that voted for Obama twice, and elected a Pelosi supporter in 2012. Democrats should have higher standards in Districts like this.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

By the way, I am not necessarily opposed to Pelosi being replaced. But if she is, it should be done after a proper debate by the whole Democratic House membership, and not pre-determined by a few renegade members who already made their decision before the vote.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is anyone else feeling bothered by the fact that an anti-Pelosi Democrat won the IL-12 Democratic nomination, which is a District that voted for Obama twice, and elected a Pelosi supporter in 2012.

Democrats should not be lowering standards like this is in these types of Districts.

No. Brendan Kelly is a stunning recruit.

I like Pelosi, I think she was incredibly effective at getting legislation through during her time as Speaker, and I would prefer she become Speaker again if we retake the House, but it's not that big a deal to me if a candidate thinks it is time for someone else to take over. She has been leader since 2003, and it doesn't strike me as absurd that some Democrats may think that is long enough. The fact that Kelly is a strong candidate and could hold this seat for some time makes it an even less important issue to me.

For me, its not that I specifically want Pelosi to be speaker, it is that I think whether or not she gets replaced should be decided in an organized intraparty debate, and not by a bunch of candidates who made contrary pledges beforehand.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'm not sure why you'd move tons of safe Rs to likely Rs while adjusting hardly any other categories. Baby steps I guess.

I can understand it as purely a reaction to AZ-8 and looking at comparable "Safe R" seats.

Maybe so, but no one should take any “expert” at all seriously if they still have VA-10 at tossup at this point LOL

Having WA-08 at tossup is even stupider.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone know who won VA-10 under current borders in 2008?

Daily Kos Elections does not say whether Obama or McCain won there.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone else feel that it is completely irresponsible for WA-08 to be listed as a toss up? Democrats are heavily favored there.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

OH-07 and SC-05 are not flipping, even if Democrats win the House NPV by 30 points.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

According to this, the 1992 ME-02 election featured 3 candidates who lived outside the District, and none who lived inside the District.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why has no one moved FL-25 out of the Safe R category yet? Trump only barely won it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Funny but not serious logic twist:

There have been 8 special elections for the House so far.

6: R Hold
1: D Gain
1: D Hold

This indicates a rate of 0% of Democratic seats flipping and 14% of Republican seats flipping

So lets just say that of the 194 seats Democrats won in 2016, all 194 stay Democratic.

And for every of the 241 seats Republicans won in 2016, 1 flips Democratic for every 6 that stay Republican.

This equates to 34 seats flipping Democratic and 207 seats staying Republican.

D+34 confirmed.

Democrats will take the House in 2018 by a 228 to 207 majority.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How many rating changes are there going to be tomorrow?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Big boost for Republicans -->

https://twitter.com/politico/status/994584961679228934

30 million dollars is not that much in the context of an entire midterms worth of elections.

Republicans spent over a third of that in the PA-18 special election alone, and still lost.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Changed a number of ratings, mostly in the direction of Republicans.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Collin Peterson is 1 of 4 House Democrats to receive money from the NRA in 2016.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Another Ron Estes should run as a third party candidate in the general to make things even more confusing.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1006570796863586304

CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 

Randy Bryce is literally the favorite to win the race.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Daily Kos needs to fire their election prediction team. They are a bunch of Republican hacks, predicting results more favorable for the Republicans than literally anyone else.

RRH, Sabato, Cook, Inside Elections; all of them are predicting a better result to some extent for Democrats than Daily Kos.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Daily Kos needs to fire their election prediction team. They are a bunch of Republican hacks, predicting results more favorable for the Republicans than literally anyone else.

RRH, Sabato, Cook, Inside Elections; all of them are predicting a better result to some extent for Democrats than Daily Kos.

Uh have you ever been to DKE? I for one think being cautious with predictions is sound.

The Daily Kos predictions are basically what I would expect if the generic ballot was R+1 by election day. Much more likely, it will be something like D+11.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

There is a fine line between a cautious prediction, and an effortless prediction. This Daily Kos prediction is in effortless territory.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

Florida is justifiable because of Rick Scott, but Wisconsin is absolutely Likely or Safe D. Lear and Sabato both ignore candidate quality (unless it's a Republican candidate of course) and fawn over presidential results.

If anything, Rick Scott is a weak candidate who will do worse against Bill Nelson than almost any other Republican would.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Drumpf? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

We're the big tent party. We can accept differences if it furthers our interests. We aren't a cult.

Are you using the drumpfinator chrome extension?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Did you all know Richard Ojeda voted for Drumpf? 

http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/392945-dem-house-candidate-in-west-virginia-voted-for-trump

We're the big tent party. We can accept differences if it furthers our interests. We aren't a cult.

Are you using the drumpfinator chrome extension?

Yes actually, it still provides me a small laugh every now and then. I sure could use it at times. I didn't know that other people could see it though. Maybe I'll take it off then.

It literally changed the content of Arkansas Yankees quote in your post.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.