2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 10, 2024, 08:13:52 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please  (Read 145318 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:24:14 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on June 27, 2018, 05:37:33 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on June 27, 2018, 05:35:10 PM
All the pundits have this as safe R. lol

All the high profile handicappers seem way too cautious. Either they would rather be labeled cautious than wrong, or they are just stupid. I'm leaning towards the latter for a nice, big handful of them.

I think these pundits are going beyond cautious territory, and into lazy territory, honestly.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2018, 04:05:24 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on June 28, 2018, 02:43:27 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 28, 2018, 02:19:08 PM
Quote from: dfwlibertylover on June 28, 2018, 02:09:55 PM


Winnable.

Have we seen a poll where Love is above 45%? I don't think we have

Either way, the fundamentals suggest that Love will win easily, and fundamentals are generally more accurate that polls for predictions.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2018, 06:31:12 PM »
Still Lean R
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2018, 05:23:14 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on July 01, 2018, 05:21:11 PM
How does Love have a 5 point lead with that breakdown? There must be a lot more Republicans than Democrats there.

There are a lot more Republicans than Democrats in the District too. Mia Love is Safe.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2018, 03:51:52 PM »
Something to note is that the states with Senate Elections this year are overall slightly more Democratic than the nation overall when it comes to the sum of state vote totals.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 07:33:42 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 10, 2018, 07:22:47 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on July 10, 2018, 07:16:41 PM
Considering the makeup of the NC Supreme Court. I expect a state law challenge to the congressional districts like in Pennsylvania for 2020.

Are there similar provisions in NC’s constitution as PA’s?

Even if there is not a similar provision, what is there to stop Dems on the state supreme court from inventing some screwed up logic to strike down gerrymandering?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2018, 08:23:57 AM »
Diaz Balart clearly benefited from the 2016 redistricting. I remember seeing calculations of the 2016 presidential results on the 2014 districts at 1 point, and Hillary Clinton would have won his old district.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2018, 12:07:34 PM »
Junk poll. Minority numbers seem far more Republican in that poll than they could realistically be.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2018, 12:36:48 PM »
What were the 61 Districts used?
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2018, 07:58:44 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on July 25, 2018, 05:31:57 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on July 25, 2018, 05:30:36 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 25, 2018, 04:02:01 PM
Preference for Congress (Marist/NBC)

MI: D+9
MN: D+12
WI: D+8

July 15-19, RVs

Looks like Minnesota could have only one Republican in their delegation come January 2019...

Hopefully....Dems can always gerrymander that district out of existence too

I thought Minnesota has nonpartisan redistricting laws.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2018, 04:47:03 PM »
Quote from: Lognog on August 14, 2018, 04:45:09 PM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 14, 2018, 12:50:00 PM
Quote from: Jeppe on August 14, 2018, 07:00:55 AM
TX-32 Democratic internal poll
Pete Sessions (R) - 47%
Colin Allred (D) - 45%

Drumpf at 41% approval and Sessions at 38% approval


I'm still confused as to how he won by a 50 point margin in 2016

Yup, this is competitive stuff.

There was no Democratic candidate in this District in 2016, only him and a Libertarian.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #11 on: August 15, 2018, 11:55:03 AM »
Quote from: 3rd-Term Walker. on August 15, 2018, 11:52:03 AM
Seems kind of suspect. Dems were only able to shave 6.5 or so points off an R+7 district (Ohio 12th). That suggests a D+6/7 electorate.

Actually, D+13, since you forgot the doubling rule of pvi.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2018, 03:51:23 PM »
FL-26 is Likely D
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2018, 05:55:26 PM »
The allegations are not reputable.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2018, 10:51:25 PM »
I cannot wait until we start seeing the conviction bump.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2018, 09:51:31 PM »
I am inclined to believe this poll because its Senate numbers in the District are about the same level that I expect it to end up being.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,768


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2018, 01:24:17 PM »
You can still read it if you use view source, but it will be formatted in a less user friendly way.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 10 queries.