2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, we have never in the electoral history of this nation seen a year with such a massive pro-incumbent lean to it as we see predicted by so many of the early pundit ratings as they are every single cycle.

Its stupid; when will the pundits learn to stop being stupidly pro-incumbent with their early predictions?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

These House ratings are way too pro-incumbent

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

yikes

this might move the race to Likely R. Joining OK-05 and UT-04 in the near certain Democratic losses for 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It would be a fun challenge to try to carefully gerrymander New Mexico over the next decade with all 3 seats being Safe D seats that voted Democratic in all 6 of the presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, and 2016 while all voting Republican in 2004.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

There's actually a good bit of evidence to suggest voters on Staten Island aren't all that crazy about Trump anymore and Rose is a perfect fit for the district.  Also, crushing De Blasio on Staten Island isn't a particularly impressive accomplishment.

How come?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Rep. Lucy McBath (GA-06) turned down a $2k contribution from Rep. Ilhan Omar:

Up in D.C., the conservative Free Beacon has pointed to a $2,000 campaign contribution that U.S. Rep. Illhan Omar, D-Minn., reported making to fellow freshman Democrat Lucy McBath of Marietta.The website noted that McBath did not report the contribution – which is true. The McBath campaign told us this morning that the contribution was not accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-peachtree-city-ordinance-would-permit-libel-suits-against-critics/K4Xt15TUWCG9MaUAr5FmCN/

Probably a smart move.  The district has a substantial Jewish population.

Glorious news!

Contrary take: Accepting a political contribution from someone you dislike and want nothing to do with does not inherently make it such that you are supporting or endorsing anything about or related to them.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/04/16/pierce-bush-grandson-george-hw-bush-may-run-congress-houston/amp/


Can the Bushes win back a district that just swung like 25 points left in 6 years?

I think the answer is no

Funfact in 1976/1980 this district had the most republican PVI in the nation.

Can you please provide a source here?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why are they wasting money on Herrera? This is bordering on Safe R, many of the counties in this district that Cantwell won in 2012(she won by a similar margin in 2018) voted for Hutchinson in a D+9 year despite dems tirelessly contesting it. It's GONE

well 2/3 of the population lives in Clark county which had no swing from 2012 to 2016 and is trending D. Anyway the real reason that they are making JBh in the patriot program is because they don't want the number of women they have to drop lower.

The number of Republican women currently in the US House is currently tied with a historic low from many decades ago.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1122833886797549568?s=21

Disgusting. Must make sure Spanberger wins re-election.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MI: John James (R) is being recruited by both the House and Senate -

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1126804503557230593

If he ran for the House, which District would it be?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I’ll bet he goes for senate but it won’t be more than a toss up if he does - if he loses then he will have a tough time running again so honestly Dems might prefer he goes for Senate so Peters can have a chance to knock him out of the ring.

If he goes for Mi-11 he would be a favorite imo - he has big name recognition, would clear the field, and will probably run at least even with Trump in the district.

He literally lost the current borders of MI-11 against Stabenow, and Stevens ran ahead of Stabenow. He would be the underdog regardless of where he runs. Trump will probably lose MI-11 in 2020 as well.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

IA-01: State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has filed to run against Abby Finkenauer (D-inc)

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1127911495646339073

Notably, she represents a State House seat that is to the left of the district as a whole (Clinton (D) +1.5 / Hubbell (D) +2.9).

Looks like that 2018 Governor number is to the right of the District as a whole.

Hubbell won IA-01 by 1.3%.

Oh, for some reason, I thought it was more like 3.5%.
I incorrectly thought Hubbell won IA-01 by about the same margin Trump won IA-01 and IA-03, while Hubbell won IA-02 and IA-03 by about the same margin Trump won IA-02.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Joey Salads, YouTube Star Famous for Racist Pranks, Launches Congressional Bid

You can't even parody real life anymore.

Then again, I'd like to hope Rose would wipe the floor with him, so maybe his winning the primary would have a silver lining?

The question of whether Max Rose wins re-election in 2020 is going to be entirely decided by who Republicans pick in the primary it seems. All the candidates on the Republican side would be either guaranteed winners or guaranteed losers. Nothing in between.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Dems won the tipping-point seat in 2018 by 4.26% (MN-07), so Dems needed a popular vote win of just over 4 points to get the majority in 2018. Given that in swing seats Democrats will now have the incumbency advantage instead of running against strong Republican incumbents, they likely won't need to win by as much as 4 points. Given the gerrymandered maps I think a popular vote of 2 or 3 points will be necessary. However, 2008 is an interesting example as in 2006 Democrats needed a popular vote win of 3% to flip the House, then in 2008 they actually had an advantage and could lose the popular vote and still win the majority (though this is based on a uniform swing from them winning a big landslide).

I think Democrats would have even gained a seat in a tied National Popular Vote for the US House in 2008.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

VA-10: Jennifer Wexton raised over $500k in the second quarter

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1145685791353593858

What a waste. Wexton winning in 2020 will happen regardless of how much people donate to her.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

RRH is insane if they think South Dakota is the Safest Senate race in the entire Country.

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Arkansas are all safer for Republicans, while Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and Oregon are all safer for Democrats.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I hope Allen West wins the Texas Republican Party Chair race. He would accelerate the Democratic swings in Texas massively by being disliked.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

4 Romney Clinton Districts and 1 Obama Clinton District in that list. FL-26 really does not belong in literally any definition of a swing seat in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1150826343963213830

Embarrassing. I wonder if these numbers will spur Jeanne Ives or another more conservative Republican to jump in.

Sanguinetti is a more conservative Republican. She was actually much more right wing than Rauner.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150823624611205120?s=19

That's a weak number for a supposedly strong challenger, epecially compared to what Max Rose raised last quarter.

Can’t axe the Max

She probably assumes she will win solely based on an assumption that votes for her in 2017 = votes for her in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Van Drew waking up and picking his game up, good sign.

https://twitter.com/BenJKest/status/1150871659810893824

He has too. He only won narrowly against a racist anti semite. He's probably the most vulnerable New Jersey Democrat after Andrew Kim.

Malinowski is pretty vulnerable. Kim definitely the most.

Malinowski underperformed because he was running against an incumbent. Not because he was weaker. Thats not a thing anymore in 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Wexton can lose if the GOP calls her a socialist enough times.

Trump would have to winning by a landslide for Wexton to lose

Or Wexton has a major scandal

Scandals don't seem to matter much these days (see Steve King, Duncan Hunter, Bob Menendez, etc. still having political careers), so I don't see why one would sink Wexton. If that were to occur, she would probably be pressured to stand down.

Steve King literally underperformed Trump by 24 points, and underperformed Romney too in a District that trended heavily Republican from 2012 to 2016. Scandals do matter, but most Representatives simply have seats so strong for their party, that they can afford to tank the hit from it and still win.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008.

Is Cedric Richmond losing in 2020?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

I was about to say, we can always draw hope from the fact that 2008 was a bigger Dem wave than 2006, and then I remembered that this is one of the districts Democrats *lost* in 2008.

Is Cedric Richmond losing in 2020?

Are you seriously comparing KS-2 to LA-2 or are you trolling

Its Brittain33 who committed a logical fallacy here, I was simply mentioning that a fallacy was being pushed.