OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Ohioguy29]

In Hamilton County, the county party's endorsed candidate for county commissioner, James Wolf, lost the primary to Stephanie Summerow Dumas. She has no campaign site, not even a social media account. All she has is a personal facebook and a crowdpac page that doesn't give much information. I was confident in us winning this with Wolf but if Dumas doesn't step up her game we might not do as well here as I originally thought. Here's hoping she gets it together. I do think it's about time we have a black person elected countywide, but she has to get elected for that to happen.

[Ohioguy29]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

[Ohioguy29]

Yeah, if I'd realized there was a chance of that happening I would've canvassed for him. At least I went out and voted for him. He would've been a great candidate.

I didn't even realize that race was contested. Heard Mayor Wolf on the Ohio Democratic Podcast and thought he was great and the real hump was going to be winning in November. Remind me, is this an open seat?

No, we'd be running against tea partier Chris Monzel. I didn't think it was a competitive primary at all. Dumas has name recognition from her previous run for commissioner and her tenure as Forest Park mayor, but I'm puzzled how she managed to win the nomination.

It's important to win this because Todd Portune is probably gonna retire within the next few years. Wolf wouldn't have had any problem doing it but I'm doubtful Dumas can if I'm being honest. It seems like she's not even trying.

[Ohioguy29]

Map of Democratic and Republican primaries results (unofficial):

The Dem map makes sense, Cordray did best in Central and western Ohio, where there is a low amount of Trumpiness, meanwhile Schiavoni/Kucinich were strongest in the industrial/Ohio River areas.

I have no idea how to interpret the Rep gubernatorial primary map. The assortment of counties won by Taylor have no obvious connection. The only thing I can think of is that DeWine has been in office for enough years that those counties are places with some miscellaneous grievance with something he or his office has done.

The southwest Ohio counties I think happened because this is where she ran ads. Not effective enough to deliver wins in DeWine's home base in the Dayton area, but the Cincinnati area has no particular loyalty to him and her branding was a good fit for the counties she won.

[Ohioguy29]

Democrat Richard Cordray to John Kasich supporters: I'm your pick for governor

Don't really like the tack he's taking here, honestly.

[Ohioguy29]

Democrat Richard Cordray to John Kasich supporters: I'm your pick for governor

Don't really like the tack he's taking here, honestly.

Bad move. Republicans come home, Democrats stay home. Cordray would do better trying to bring turnout up.

I don't think he should focus solely on turnout; there's a lot of swing voters in Ohio, and you can't win with just "the base" here. But I think it would be smarter to try to reach out to Obama-Trump voters in Appalachia and northeast Ohio than whatever the hell he's doing here. He can win people in places like Franklin county and Delaware county without sucking up to Kasich (which turns off a lot of potentially winnable voters and doesn't win many new ones, if any at all.)

[Ohioguy29]

An article on that Hamilton county commissioner primary for anyone who's interested:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2018/05/10/ohio-primary-hamilton-county-commissioner-candidate-surprise-victory/598336002/

[Ohioguy29]

Updated prediction map for post-primary. Currently, only one D-held seat isn't completely safe, and it's the one in Ashtabula County.



In my estimation, candidate recruitment was goofed in the 55th (Lean R seat in Lorain County); 92nd (Likely R seat just south of Franklin County); all three of the R held seats in Cuyahoga County (6th, 7th, and 16th); as well as the 5th (Columbiana County); and the 23rd (the one Likely R seat in Franklin County).

Largely agreed. What's wrong with Phil Robinson though? I don't understand the Columbus area so I don't know what they like.

Side note, I like your new signature and generally feel the same way.

[Ohioguy29]

So the FBI raided Cliff Rosenberger's house (and storage unit.)

[Ohioguy29]

Daniel Gordon has withdrawn from the HD-3 race due to health reasons.

[Ohioguy29]

Daniel Gordon has withdrawn from the HD-3 race due to health reasons.

Health? Isn’t he like 25?

Maybe that’s why he wasn’t really doing very well. Despite his theoretically strong candidacy, he was not breaking ground. (Though that’s also the danger of running a ward councilman—even if BG dominates Wood County and OH-03, a ward councilman has limited appeal.)

I hope OHDC recruits a viable candidate here. It’s a shame Joel Kuhlman is running for judge, but he’d be good here. He had been the lone Democrat on the Wood County Commision and still got 47% of the vote as other county wide Democrats were getting crushed.

Yeah, I had wondered why his fundraising was so terrible. I don't know details of his illness, but this is the facebook post he made. I was so excited we had a non-Kelly Wicks candidate too...

[Ohioguy29]

That's a very reasonable solution, and Ryan Smith is a big baby for not getting on board with it.

[Ohioguy29]

Two new polls. An Enquirer/Suffolk poll shows Cordray leading DeWine 43 to 36 with likely voters (the 16% of undecideds in that poll are heavily Republican though.) Quinnipiac poll shows Cordray leading 42-40 (within the MOE.) Crystal Ball has changed their rating of the race from Lean R to Tossup.

Q poll also shows that 57% of Ohio Democrats approve of John Kasich, making 57% of Ohio Democrats big morons who will fall for any snake oil salesman who says nice sounding anti-Trump words on the TV.

[Ohioguy29]

New and improved prediction map that I won't update again until October or so.



By my count, there are 2 Likely D seats currently held by Republicans, 3 Tossups, 5 Tilt R seats, 2 Lean R seats, 7 Likely R seats, and 7 Very Likely R seats. A bad night in November consists of winning only 2 seats, an okay night is 3-6, a good night is 7-10, and a great night is 11 or more.

You seemed to have more faith in Sappington and Helle last time around; what's changed for you? I haven't been following the state house races so I don't know.

I also question why you have any of the Butler County races as anything other than safe R. For HD-54 I can at least understand an argument that Aftab-mentum could carry Foster to victory (although I'd probably still put it at safe R.)

[Ohioguy29]

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

[Ohioguy29]

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.

I didn't know, I thought FCDP had actually messed up. Not surprising from Husted though. I just always assume the worst from them and Cuyahoga Dems (more CCDP than FCDP though.) Of the "big three," it seems like Hamilton County is the only county party doing a really good job. Hopefully Hamilton County keeps that up; safe blue areas often have dysfunctional Dem parties and Hamilton County might become safe blue in the not so distant future.

[Ohioguy29]

Still curious why you think those Butler County seats are even a little bit competitive, btw. I don't.

[Ohioguy29]

I'm more optimistic about the Ohio Senate than you and I didn't even think I was that optimistic! What happened in SD-3 is ridiculous though. Franklin County Dems need to get it together.

Really not on FCDP, for once. This is the second time in as many cycles that Husted has invalidated an A-list recruit for the most winnable state legislative district in either chamber over relatively minor errors he has excused in other districts.

Husted is not our friend, and for that matter, neither is Frank LaRose.

I didn't know, I thought FCDP had actually messed up. Not surprising from Husted though. I just always assume the worst from them and Cuyahoga Dems (more CCDP than FCDP though.) Of the "big three," it seems like Hamilton County is the only county party doing a really good job. Hopefully Hamilton County keeps that up; safe blue areas often have dysfunctional Dem parties and Hamilton County might become safe blue in the not so distant future.

FCDP is leagues better than CCDP and is generally fairly competent, but HCDP is definitely more competently run looking in from the outside. That said, HCDP has two things going for it that neither FCDP nor CCDP have going for them.

1: HCDP benefits from having David Pepper Chairman in charge of ODP. Over the past decade, it's been clear the balance of Democrats political power in Ohio -- as in the rest of the country -- has been shifting south and west from the historic base in the northeast. Pepper in charge has accelerated this shift by funneling resources to the southwest, mostly into Hamilton County, but also Warren, Butler, and even Clinton County through the Mainstreet Program.

2: Franklin County and Cuyahoga County are Safe D counties. In some ways, this makes it harder for the parties to do their job, especially as the machines break down and the focus becomes not winning the general but winning the primary and consolidating power, which can cause nasty factionalism to emerge that sometimes spillover and dampen electoral prospects. (ex: O'Connor only jumping into OH-12 because Zach Scott was running.)

Hamilton County isn't there yet.

--

I'm not so bullish on Butler County, Likely R is still pretty damn strong for the Republicans. There's really just one seat that looks like it's truly competitive, and that's HD 53. Why I rank it only Lean R? Strong Democrat recruit who has consistently outraised the Republican incumbent, very strong primary showing compared to past years, and an absolutely insane incumbent who is likely to turn off the well-educated voters in the Oxford area, which constitutes a strong plurality of the district's population.

FCDP is miles above CCDP, and I agree with you analysis. FCDP seems competent, I'm just really spoiled down here, our Dem party is honestly amazing. I do think we'll get some of the problems Franklin has as we become bluer; I already sense beginning people ready to start infighting and purity testing (these people are a tiny minority who's completely ignored right now but that's unlikely to be true in ten years.)

HD-53 actually swung towards Trump (as did Butler County as a whole), so I disagree that educated voters in that district will be turned off by insanity (except for Democrats living in Oxford, and there's not any more of them now than there was in all the other elections we've lost there.) Educated voters in central Ohio swung more Democratic, but this did not happen in southwest Ohio outside of Hamilton County. Well off, college educated people in Butler, Warren, etc. are like "Tax cuts and racism? Hot diggety dog!" From what I know of Butler County, Candace Keller is giving them exactly what they want.

I also question whether Rebecca Howard is a strong candidate when I see her website. I might reach out to her and offer to rewrite it. I hate Keller so much, and Howard is clearly a great person who's pure of heart. I want her to have a chance. I also think being a lesbian hurts her in this district. However, I can see your argument here when I look at the fundraising disparity. Good grief! Still, it's likely R at best (I still say solid R; all the money in the world doesn't matter if these are your voters.)

I can also at least see the argument for HD-52 being likely R; Wyenandt is a unusually strong candidate imo. I see no argument for HD-51 though; that one would've been a struggle even if Drunky McDriver survived his primary, but he didn't.

[Ohioguy29]

I don't disagree that the GOP is prone to support nutjobs, but Keller has gotten in hot water several times already and she's only a freshman legislator. She's not yet entrenched by any means. I also don't think the fact that Howard is a lesbian is that detrimental -- Warren County elected a lesbian to Lebanon City Council last year. Nerds like us are a good deal about candidates' websites but I don't think the average voter does, especially not for the state legislature. That said, if you want to help Howard out, that'd be very cool! Not enough people on Atlas are actually involved and volunteering, which is a shame.

HD 52 could be Lean R as well, but the DPI is so much lower than even in HD 53.  As for HD 51, I'd check the latest fundraising numbers. Plus, it's actually the most winnable on paper, if only slightly.

HD 51 DPI - 36.21%
HD 52 DPI - 25.70%
HD 53 DPI - 35.30%

I see that Carruthers didn't raise anything. However, she's independently wealthy and can self fund no problem; I assume that's what the $72,000 of "other income" is. And Susan Vaughn raised $665 last quarter, so it's not like Carruthers is being crushed.

Ultimately, I might be more willing to buy your arguments here if you had less conservative ratings overall. As it is, I'm skeptical. This thread has been a reminder to me that I should look over the most recent fundraising numbers though; not sure if I ever got around to that. I checked out of politics for a few months.

[Ohioguy29]

I was wondering lol.

I also feel I should clarify that I don't think being a lesbian kills Howard or anything. It's just one thing that hurts her in a district where she's already at a disadvantage.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/RichCordray/status/1025756027227201536

[Ohioguy29]

Good content, but he’s just so boring. I’ve given up on ever seeing him with some fire.

Luckily he is up against Mike DeWine, so at least there's a level playing field.

[Ohioguy29]

Who else is gonna be obsessively watching how well O'Connor does within certain state legislative districts?

[Ohioguy29]

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!

Can we just talk about what a joke that "limit" is for a second?!

It's seriously ludicrous. I think caps are a clumsy solution to the problem anyway, but at that point you might as well not have a cap.

Ohio is desperately in need of campaign finance reform. Our whole state government is blatantly pay to play.

[Ohioguy29]

Interesting tidbit: Hillary Clinton made a max donation to Clyde’s Campaign for SOS. And that’s a pretty penny. Roughly $12.7k!

Can we just talk about what a joke that "limit" is for a second?!

It's seriously ludicrous. I think caps are a clumsy solution to the problem anyway, but at that point you might as well not have a cap.

Ohio is desperately in need of campaign finance reform. Our whole state government is blatantly pay to play.

This

Oh trust me. I've been in a pretty quiet corner of this fair state for like 47 days and I already know that full well.

It's become very obvious lately with the payday lending scandal (and the ECOT scandal.) But it's present on a smaller scale too. It pretty much seems like sketchy businesses set the agenda in Columbus.