2019 New Jersey State Assembly Election

[Senator Incitatus]

Figured I would set up a thread for this since it's one of a few statewide elections this year. Will post my own preview of the race in due time.

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Glad to see this thread is taking off.

The only thing I currently have to add is that I think the six South Jersey seats will be more competitive than Lean-Likely D. South Jersey has been trending hard Republican (with those trends even continuing for Hugin, a social liberal) and Democrats there hate Murphy. If Republicans get the right candidates, they should be very strong in all three districts.

Agree that Munoz and Bramnick are in serious trouble. I could also see Bhimani sneaking into the seat left open by MPC. Other suburban districts with an outside shot of being competitive are LD11 and LD13. LD14 will also be interesting to watch, since the two largest towns (Monroe and Hamilton) are trending pretty strongly Republican relative to the state/area, but both incumbents are probably too personally popular to be peeled off even if Murphy nosedives.

Summary: The Democratic majority is extremely safe, but the super-majority they currently hold by one seat is in question. ±2 seats in either direction when all is said and done. I'll try to write up specific match-ups as the candidates become better known.

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I'm assuming NJ Governor Phil Murphy (D) isn't getting involved in the legislative contests ?

Not yet, anyway. It's a quiet election. Testament to how much Trump really has sucked the oxygen out of state and local politics (plus the death of local reporting).

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It's well-known that New Jersey has the most ossified political environment as a result of the media situation and explicit factors favoring incumbents (like the map and two-chamber districts). Vin Gopal was something like the fifth person to unseat an incumbent Senator in the last three decades (with Beck being another).

[Senator Incitatus]

Tonight is primary night in New Jersey. There are only a few Assembly primaries that matter:

ASSEMBLY
District 6 (Camden)
This district is safely Democratic, but the incumbent Norcross machine (Greenwald and Lampitt) faces a challenge from the left by E. Julian Jordan III and Danie Moss-Velasco. Murphy has endorsed the incumbents, so don't read too much into the result tonight.

District 8 (Burlington)
Incumbent Republican Joe Howarth has been denied party support in Burlington. It was rumored that he might jump ship to the Democrats along with Senator Dawn Addiego, but he stayed put and is running as a "MAGA Republican." Seems a bit desperate if you ask me, but the party line historically matters less in Republican primaries, so he may hold on.

Four candidates are running for the two slots: incumbent Ryan Peters (who will probably clear the field), Howarth, party-endorsee and former Burlington Co. Sheriff Jean Stanfield, and attorney R. Jason Huf. Stanfield has a decent chance of beating Howarth.

The district hasn't actually elected a Democrat in many years, although Addiego is their current Senator and narrowly held on as a Republican in 2017. This primary should go a long way toward determining the next Assembly members.

District 25 (Morris)
Incumbent Michael Patrick Carroll is running for Morris County Surrogate instead of re-election. Anthony Bucco is widely expected to be re-nominated, but three candidates are running for Carroll's seat – attorney John Barbarula, Brian Bergen (Denville councilman), and Aura Kenny Dunn (a former Frelinghuysen aide). Haven't heard much about this one, but the district could flip in November, so the nominee will be significant.

There are some other county and municipal races I'm following and will post if the results are interesting.