PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is a holiday here, so I´ll make my final predictions tomorrow.

But for me it´s probably going to be:

Strong DEM (10%+)

OR, HI, CT, VT, NY (R), NY (S), MD, DE

Likely DEM (5-10%)

CA

Slight DEM (0.01%-5%)

WA, WV

Strong GOP (10%+)

ID, UT, AZ, ND, SD, KS, OK, IA, MO, AR, LA, IN, OH, KY, AL, GA, FL, SC, NC, NH

Likely GOP (5-10%)

WI

Slight GOP (0.01%-5%)

NV, CO, IL, PA

Slight IND (0.01%-5%)

AK

[Tender Branson]

Probably my final Senate Prediction (incl. Turnout and Generic Senate Ballot):



I also predict a net 67 seat gain for the Republicans in the House.

I'll do Governors later.

[Tender Branson]

I have really no clue what's going on in Colorado, there could also be a recount.

Here are my final predictions for the Governor races:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2010/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2583

My gut tells me that Malloy and Sink will slightly win and Strickland won't.

[Tender Branson]

LOL.

Just saw that I would be one of only 4 persons to predict a McAdams win with 30%+

[Tender Branson]

What are you projecting for turnout (%)?

I have calculated slightly different results, using VAP (Voting Age Population):



The turnout numbers in each year are the Presidential totals and the Mid-Term numbers are the totals for the House of Representatives elections.

This is the source for the figures:

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kprof00-us.pdf

http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2009/NC-EST2009-02.xls

As you can see, Mid-Term elections always have about 2/3 of the turnout from the previous Presidential election.

Therefore I predict about 88.4 Mio. votes for this year in the House of Representatives, which would be 37.5% turnout among the VAP (people aged 18+).

Which would be about 41% turnout among the VEP (Voting Eligible Population).

[Tender Branson]

I got 2 states wrong in my Senate prediction and 2 in the Governor prediction.

I thought Angle would win in NV and that McAdams would be much stronger somehow.

Didn't happen.

The 2 I got wrong on the Governor side are IL and FL, but these were really close races.

I also predicted R+67 in the House, which is also not far off.

Therefore I´m happy with my predictions.