WI-PPP: Walker (R) would lose the election now

[Tender Branson]

If you could do last fall’s election for Governor over again, would you vote for Democrat Tom Barrett or Republican Scott Walker?

Tom Barrett ........... 52%
Scott Walker.......... 45%

February 24-27, 2011
Survey of 768 Wisconsin voters

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/BarrettWalkerRematchResults.pdf

[Tender Branson]

What did PPP poll exactly?   Is it registered voters?  Likely voters? All I can tell is that 7% of respondents didn't bother to vote in the 2010 election - not exactly the type of folks who'd vote in a rematch, anyway.

PPP always polls Registered Voters, except 1 or 2 months before the election where they use LV.

[Tender Branson]

LOL, this is actually pretty good for Walker.  Remember that this is a PPP poll without their LV screen (Which was about 11 points more Republican than their RV screen), and their last one before the 2010 election was a tie.

In other words, this means Walker's actually gained relative ground since getting elected in PPP polls, as he's gone from a tie to a 7 point deficit in an electorate that's 11 points more Democrat.

Their last poll before the election had a 53-44 Walker lead with a 34-30 Republican sample.

This poll has a 52-45 Barrett lead with a 33-32 Democratic sample.

Walker lost more ground overall than what the change in the samples might suggest.

The most interesting finding though is that Walker led Independents in the pre-election poll by 54-40, but now he's losing them 44-49.

[Tender Branson]

Also the exit poll in WI was rather similar to the final PPP poll before the election.

The exit poll was much more Democratic though. PPP had a R+4 sample, the Exit poll showed a D+1 sample. That was probably the main reason why Barrett did better on election day that what PPP projected. Walker only won by 5.8 points, not by 9 like PPP said - because more Dems turned out.

[Tender Branson]

New "We Ask America" Poll:

Date of Poll: 3/27/2011
Participants: 1,693 Wisconsin residents
Margin of Error: ±2.38%

43.7% Approve
54.9% Disapprove

http://weaskamerica.com/2011/03/28/crossfire/