Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Tender Branson]

Shouldn't Südtirol be in red due to the SVP's membership of the Centrosinistra? Or have I missed something?

The SVP is virtually like the ÖVP politically and can be considered center-right.

So the map is OK (even though they run together with the PD).

[Tender Branson]

M5S and the CentroDestra coalition should just form a grand coalition and get it over with.

That's what Italians voted for and what they want. A coalition of winners.

Maybe they get some things done (lol) and people will become less pessimistic over the years as a result.

The PD and other small leftist parties should go into opposition and restructure.

PS: Antonio, plz remove your signature. It's not working.

[Tender Branson]

It's pretty clear what Italians want:

A M5S-Lega government. They should start coalition talks quickly.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Index Research poll for "La7":



Record highs for M5S + Lega.

[Tender Branson]

This is why we need a M5S-Lega government right now. Preventing it means only delaying the inevitable.

That is true. Let them govern, let them pass some things that work out and let them make mistakes (and of course many of them will happen) ... and they will implode again.

Btw: have intense talks between the parties already started ?

[Tender Branson]

   Pretty amazing that two Robert/o Fico politicians are active in politics at the same time, and both feature prominently in the news one week after another, one resigning and one winning election as speaker. What are the odds of that ?

The odds that you are struck by lightning are probably higher than that ...

[Tender Branson]

Italy's President has just announced the failure to create a new government.

New elections imminent.

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https://www.ft.com/content/fe747d32-520f-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e

Poor Italians. They elected a new parliament that works and not for stagnation. I think this will only increase the share of the Lega and M5S, but the bloc results will remain largely the same. And after the elections, they will be in the same crappy situation again ...

[Tender Branson]

After the threat of new elections in recent days or a caretaker government, Italians now apparently get what they voted for: a M5S-Lega government.

Italy's Berlusconi gives green light to 5-Star/League government

ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday gave the green light to his ally the League to try to form a government with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, but said his own party would not support the coalition.

His announcement could open the way for a new government to take office within days, ending nine weeks of political stalemate in Italy following inconclusive March elections.

5-Star has offered to forge a coalition with the far-right League on condition it abandons its long-time partner Berlusconi. League leader Matteo Salvini has refused to do that without the approval of his veteran ally.

“It certainly won’t be us who imposes vetoes,” Berlusconi said in a statement, adding that although he would not support this new coalition in parliament, his partnership with the League would still continue at a local level.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-berlusconi/italys-berlusconi-gives-green-light-to-5-star-league-government-idUSKBN1IA35C

[Tender Branson]

M5S+Lega have concluded their coalition talks today and announced a full agreement on PM and all other cabinet members (the new PM's name was not mentioned today).

They will present their coaltion contract and cabinet to the President of Italy tomorrow.

Meanwhile, M5S party members voted with 90%+ for the coalition contract. Lega-members are also likely to approve by a wide margin.

http://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/politica/2018/05/20/governo-giornata-decisiva-faccia-a-faccia-di-maio-salvini_cf5eef65-5017-4607-8983-da0c92951e49.html

[Tender Branson]

Here are some key points of their coalition contract:

* Flat Tax: With two tax rates of 15 and 20 percent for individuals and families and 15 percent for businesses, the coalition partners hope to boost economic growth. Next year's planned increase in value added tax (IVA) in the amount of 12.5 billion euros will be cancelled. Tax evasion and the shadow economy are to be combated.

* Basic income: 780 euros for each person in need provides the model of the minimum income that the coalition partners want to introduce. Unemployed people should, however, have to commit themselves to attend training courses and accept job offers, otherwise they will lose the minimum income.

* Pension reform: The amendment to the 2011 pension reform, which abolished early retirement by the then Monti government, is a cornerstone of the government's program. The Italians should be allowed to retire again after 41 years of contributions and not only at the age of 67 years. That should cost up to 15 billion euros. Pensioners should receive at least 780 euros per month.

* Revision of the EU Treaties: The government intends to work for an amendment to the EU fiscal compact "for Italy to regain its sovereignty".

* Immigration and security: Italy wants to work for a reform of the Dublin agreement. The deportation procedures are to be intensified and the fight against human trafficking to be tightened. Radical Islamic associations and prayer places are to be closed. Planned is a register of imams. New jobs are planned for the police.

* Foreign policy: The new government wants Brussels to lift the sanctions against Russia. The Italian defense industry should be promoted.

* Social Issues: It is planned to introduce a ministry that looks after the needs of disabled people.

* Reduction of political costs: Privileges of politicians should be reduced. The use of service cars and state flights and police escorts for politicians should be severely restricted and politicians' pensions limited to a maximum of 5,000 euros per month.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Lega hits a new record high (25.4%) in the latest IPSOS poll - now polling higher than the FPÖ. M5S+Lega now have 58% support (+8% compared with the election):

[Tender Branson]

A new Demos poll for the "Repubblica" newspaper shows voters (especially those of the M5S and Lega) lining up behind the government, with 60% now approving of the new government:

"Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the coming M5S+Lega government ?"

60% favourable
36% unfavourable



By party:



Salvini (Lega) is now also the most popular politician in Italy (except the President):



Vote in a future election:

[Tender Branson]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Not if they are somewhat competent in government, such as FrP in Norway, the FPÖ in Austria right now, Fidesz in Hungary or the PiS in Poland ...

[Tender Branson]

Lega party members also approved the coalition contract with 91% of the vote over the weekend.

[Tender Branson]

President Matarella has now officially instructed Conte to lead the new government as PM.

[Tender Branson]

What are the requirements for the impeachment and removal of the Italian President ?

[Tender Branson]

I think both sides are to blame for this mess:

M5S + Lega for being stubborn and presenting no alternative name to President Matarella for Finance Minister and insisting on their extreme candidate.

And Matarella for ignoring democracy (to some extent) and the will of the people by acting as the prolonged arm of Macron and Merkel and pushing the extreme pro-EU/Eurozone agenda.

Italian voters will become only more annoyed and aggressive over the next months and Lega will likely finish at the top this time, or very closely to M5S - both getting around 30% of the vote.

The PD will likely get crushed, as will Berlusconi's party. Then, I also think Italians should be able to vote on EU/Eurozone membership to settle this issue.

PS: Can any of the Italian posters still answer my question what the requirements are for the impeachment of the Italian president ? Is a 2/3 majority in both chambers needed ? Or a referendum vote ? Or both ?

[Tender Branson]

League, Five Star Reach Agreement on Savona Role: La Stampa
(Bloomberg) -- Italy’s populist parties -- League and Five Star -- reach deal which would see Paolo Savona serve as minister of European affairs, La Stampa reports, citing anonymous sources.

Economics professor Giovanni Tria to become Finance Minister, if President Matarella agrees (which he should).

His blockade of this government has become annoying ...

[Tender Branson]

M5S + Lega has been sworn in.

Let the fun begin.

[Tender Branson]

[Tender Branson]

Lega almost hitting 30% in a new Ipsos poll, up 11% from their election results, and almost passing M5S to become the largest party in Italy:



M5S+Lega are almost at 60% now.

Right: 42% (+5)
Populists: 30% (-3)
Left: 25% (-1)
Others: 3% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

The Lega (= the FPÖ's sister party) is apparently open to talks about handing Italian/Austrian dual-citizenship to South Tyrolians:

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https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/doppelpaesse-fuer-suedtiroler-lega-zeigt-verstaendnis/400046879

[Tender Branson]

Salvini plans meeting with Austrian Interior Minister Kickl

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http://orf.at/stories/2441908