CfRES (R)/TargetPoint Consulting: IA, NH, SC & NV polls (user search)
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  CfRES (R)/TargetPoint Consulting: IA, NH, SC & NV polls (search mode)
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Author Topic: CfRES (R)/TargetPoint Consulting: IA, NH, SC & NV polls  (Read 1382 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: February 11, 2015, 03:00:06 AM »

TargetPoint Consulting conducted a series of statewide surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina on behalf of the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions:

IOWA:

21% Walker
10% Bush
  9% Huckabee
  8% Paul
  7% Carson
  5% Christie

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NEW HAMPSHIRE:

15% Bush
11% Walker
10% Paul  
  9% Christie
  6% Huckabee

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NEVADA:

18% Walker
12% Bush
  9% Paul
  7% Carson
  7% Rubio

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SOUTH CAROLINA:

12% Walker
11% Graham
10% Huckabee
  9% Bush

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...

Methodology: The sample size for these surveys is 400 likely Republican caucus/primary voters in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina, and 3000 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. All interviews were conducted using live operator phone technology and were conducted by TargetPoint Consulting between January 30th and February 3rd. Cell phone users made up the following percentages of interviews in each poll: 14% in Iowa, 2% in New Hampshire, 31% in Nevada, and 30% in South Carolina.

http://www.citizensfor.com/cres-presidential-topline-memo
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2015, 03:05:40 AM »

3000 polled in NH and only 2% cell-phone ?

Is that most likely a typo ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2015, 03:16:39 AM »

3000 polled in NH and only 2% cell-phone ?

Is that most likely a typo ?

I assume they wanted a really large sample in NH for some other reason (polling questions not related to the presidential primaries).  I guess landlines are easier to poll, because of a higher response rate?  If so, they just didn't need to bother calling that many cell phones in NH, because 2% of such a large sample is already enough that they can just upweight that group to account for any demographic skew.  Whereas with the smaller samples, you need to call more cellphones as a fraction of the total number of calls, in order to get a decent demographic sample.

No idea if that's the reason, but it's the most plausible explanation I can come up with.

Yeah, 2% of 3000 would yield 60 cell-phone respondents.

It then depends if the topline results here are based on the 3000 respondents or only on an undersample of 400 like in the other states.

Because 60/400 would yield a cell-phone %age of 15%, which would not be bad but probably still too low. Aren't cell phones already used by 40-80% of people these days ?

Which means the 3000er sample might heavily underrepresent young GOP primary voters.
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