Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

An agreement has been reached by SPÖ and ÖVP during their coalition "update" talks late yesterday night.

They worked out a comprehensive reform and working plan for their remaining 1.5 years, which will be passed in their party committees in the next hours, then presented to the President and then to the press and the public in the afternoon.

While media insiders who were present at the talks said "Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) is happy with the results", the media spins it mostly as "a victory for the ÖVP, Mitterlehner and Kurz".

This is probably because of tougher measures for immigration, asylum and security as well as incentives for companies to strengthen the labour market.

We'll see once the whole package is presented if there's a SPÖ-handwriting in it as well ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems the SPÖ's main accomplishments in the agreement are:

* the introduction of a uniform minimum wage of 1500€ a month
* coaches for long-term unemployed to integrate them into the labour market
* generally more money for the AMS (labour market service agency)
* a work guarantee for workers above the age of 50, who are often unlikely to find jobs again

* free tablets and laptops for students from elementary school to higher schools
* generally more money for education and universities
* more aid for university students with poor background
* more research and development money and language trips for students/workers abroad

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP's main accomplishments seem to be:

* more video surveillance, tougher border controls and data storage
* electronic shackles for suspects of Islamist extremism and those who return from war zones
* a further reduction of immigration and asylum seekers
* mandatory registration of prepaid SIM-cards using an ID of the buyer

* Burka and headscarf ban in public places and institutions such as schools, courts etc.
* 2nd free kindergarten year (also for immigrant children) to learn German faster
* an "integration year" for asylum seekers in which they do community work
* Salafists and radical Muslims will be banned to sell the Koran on the streets

* labour market: more flexible working times for employees of up to 12 hours a day
* less bureaucracy and taxes for employers, so they can hire workers more easily
* reduction of family benefits to foreigners (you now need to work a few years longer in Austria)

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ's party committee has agreed to the agreement.

Here is the full agreement btw:

http://images.derstandard.at/2017/01/30/170130Arbeitsprogramm1718.pdf

[Tender Branson]

* Salafists and radical Muslims will be banned to sell the Koran on the streets

Lol, sell them? They hand them out for free here in the city.

Anyway, if the SPÖ agree to this it's going to be hard to come up with objections to an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition...

Sry.

Yeah, I meant the free handouts of the Koran ...

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the ÖVP party committee has also approved the agreement in their meeting.

Kern and Mitterlehner will now present the new working agreement for 2017-18 to the press at 2pm.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting also that rejected criminal asylum seekers will now be detained and the free movement of non-criminal rejected asylum seekers within Austria will be severely limited until they either voluntarily leave the country or be deported.

Also, their welfare payments will be cut to zero immediately after their asylum request has been denied.

[Tender Branson]

  So it looks like there was no agreement to reduce the upper limit quota of migrants to 17,500.  Does this meant that the previous target is still in force?

That's not true: While the 2 parties did not agree on a specific number, they agreed to limit the inflow of new asylum seekers, economic migrants from outside the EU (Austria still remains a magnet for EU citizens) and more deportations of rejected asylum seekers or migrants who have turned into criminals.

[Tender Branson]

It is likely that the facial veil ban in public that was agreed on will also apply to tourists (and there are thousands of Arab tourists every year alone here in Zell am See - with fully covered women), who will be fined. But it also means that teachers, lawyers, nurses, kindergarten workers, judges etc. for example won't be allowed to wear kippas or crosses. Crosses will also be removed out of classrooms and courtrooms, if the law is passed.

[Tender Branson]

We could see an uptick for both SPÖ and ÖVP in the next polls if they manage to sell their package to voters in a somewhat professional way.

SPÖ up to around 30%, ÖVP up to around 23%.

FPÖ maybe down to around 30%, or slightly below.

I could also see the Greens and NEOS shedding a few points. The Greens could actually go down to 10%, which would be a new low.

[Tender Branson]

   It will be interesting to see if these measures discouraging asylum/non-EU migrants will create a lot of protests, and maybe some SPO internal conflict.

Except the usual suspects (Young Socialists), it's pretty unlikely that this package will lead to internal SPÖ conflicts. Vienna's mayor Häupl has signed it off today, as has the whole party committee. And especially the more rural SPÖ-voting folk doesn't mind the tougher measures against rejected/criminal asylum seekers.

[Tender Branson]

The Graz city council election this Sunday will be the "test run" for the SPÖVP government after their new coalition agreement.

I guess ÖVP and SPÖ get a small but meaningless bump, while the FPÖ drops, and the results should be something like 32% ÖVP, 21% FPÖ, 20% Communists, 12% SPÖ, 10% Greens, 4% NEOS, 1% Others.

[Tender Branson]

A new Graz poll (700 voters surveyed):

33.6% ÖVP (-0.1)
23.3% KPÖ (+3.4)
14.0% FPÖ (+0.2)
13.9% Greens (+1.7)
13.3% SPÖ (-2.0)
  1.1% NEOS (+1.1)
  0.8% Others

Link

Another Communist surge this Sunday ? Would certainly be interesting.

[Tender Branson]

For posters who want to know why the Communists will get close to a quarter of the vote on Sunday in the city of Graz, watch this short "documentary" about Elke Kahr (party leader in Graz):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fP9vc89BvU

And read this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5449940#msg5449940

[Tender Branson]

All fully-veiled persons in Austria will soon be fined with 150€ (and significantly more in repeat cases), when the new package gets passed.

That means Burqas and Niqabs will soon be banned from the streets here, but not headscarves which are not covering the face (Hijabs).

The Salzburg Chamber of Commerce is against the new law, because of the many Arab tourists in the Zell am See region (a couple 100.000 each year).

Most of them are from the more "liberal" countries such as the UAE, Kuwait, Katar, Oman etc. - but recently also the middle-class from Saudi Arabia discovered that Zell am See is pretty awesome.

And while the tourist women from the more "liberal" countries usually just wear Hijabs, the Saudi women are virtually all wearing full-body clothings.

So, the new law will mostly target the Saudi tourists.

[Tender Branson]

It is likely that the facial veil ban in public that was agreed on will also apply to tourists (and there are thousands of Arab tourists every year alone here in Zell am See - with fully covered women), who will be fined. But it also means that teachers, lawyers, nurses, kindergarten workers, judges etc. for example won't be allowed to wear kippas or crosses. Crosses will also be removed out of classrooms and courtrooms, if the law is passed.

What the hell. And the ÖVP is responsible for this?

Yes. The ÖVP for sure wants to keep the crosses in the schoolrooms and courts. But constitutional experts have said that if SPÖVP bans Muslim clothings, then the law must also guarantee that other religious symbols (Christian and Jewish ones such as the cross and kippa) are removed from courtrooms and classrooms to be constitutional and non-discriminating ...

Which brings us to the next question: Will this law ever be passed then ?

[Tender Branson]

The Graz-ÖVP strongly attacks the KPÖ ahead of Sunday's municipal elections:

http://derstandard.at/2000051880287/OeVP-warnt-vor-kommunistisch-regiertem-Graz

Based on the poll I posted above, they warn of a "Communist takeover" of the city (Red-Red-Green) and one ÖVP-city council member even posted on Facebook about the KPÖ's success:

"In the 1940s, the Nazis used the construction of highways to get the votes of simpleminded people, now Elke Kahr (leader of the KPÖ) is giving away apartments."

...

Pretty disgusting IMO to compare Kahr's awesome work in helping struggling people with eviction problems or huge rent increases with the Nazis.

[Tender Branson]

Would ski masks and balaclavas be allowed?

Depends if you are on the slope or not ...

Anyway, it would be pretty stupid to ban ski masks ... in Austria (which is the home of skiing).

This proposed facial veil ban seems to be pretty half-baked to me, and we'll have to see if it will actually become law.

[Tender Branson]

Would ski masks and balaclavas be allowed?

Depends if you are on the slope or not ...

Anyway, it would be pretty stupid to ban ski masks ... in Austria (which is the home of skiing).

This proposed facial veil ban seems to be pretty half-baked to me, and we'll have to see if it will actually become law.

Do you support it?

I definitely support the ban of burqas and niqabs in Austria, but not the banning of regular headscarves which are not covering the face.

Like Kern said:

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Probably exceptions should be made for ski masks on the slopes, because it's pretty crazy and dangerous to ski on windy and cold days (parts of your face could freeze).

[Tender Branson]

A couple days after the agreement for the new coalition program, experts and the media are already tearing apart some of the main points - some might be unconstitutional.

* ÖVP now wants to keep the crosses in the courtrooms and schools, but wants to ban Muslim full-body clothings

* The veil ban for tourists is also attacked by the Chamber of Commerce (less tourist spending from Arab tourists) and Austrian Muslim organisations (discrimination)

* The agreed women quota for private companies is attacked by the Chamber of Commerce

* The proposed surveillance of "suspected" terrorists with electronic shackles is almost definitely unconstitutional

* The new data storage law might not hold either, because the Austrian Constitutional Court has already thrown out the previous data storage law as way too intrusive.

* Mandatory registration of prepaid SIMs to prevent terrorism ? The Chamber of Commerce is opposed, because sales could fall.

* Internment of rejected asylum seekers until they are either voluntarily leaving the country or being deported to prevent crimes ? Could also be unconstitutional.

There seem to be quite a lot of roadblocks in the way for SPÖVP in the next months and some points they agreed on might never become law.

[Tender Branson]

Today is Feb 1., so the monthly poll on top of the page is over.

January Poll: Will the SPÖVP coalition last until 2018 ?

75.9% Yes (22 votes)
24.1% No (7 votes)

A new poll will be posted for the month of February.

[Tender Branson]

For the February poll, titled:

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We need to assume the ban for now would include Burqas (everything covered) and Niqabs (only the eyes are visible).

The ban does not include hijabs and regular headscarves, where the full face is visible.

Also, as for the question: ski masks remain legal (for example during cold/windy weather) and are only banned at large-scale demonstrations.

Also, other religious (Jewish, Buddhist, etc.) clothing is legal as long as the face remains fully uncovered.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ and ÖVP are already back fighting against each other, just a few days after their program update.

This time, it's about the full-face veil ban and crosses in courts and classrooms:

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http://www.thelocal.at/20170202/debate-over-cross-in-courtrooms-follows-full-veil-ban

This led the populist-right "Krone" newspaper to attack Muna Duzdar (SPÖ) for questioning the role of crosses in courtrooms and classrooms:

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http://www.krone.at/oesterreich/duzdar-beginnt-krieg-gegen-kreuz-in-klassenzimmern-spvp-friede-ade-story-551873

...

Duzdar is a non-practicing Muslim and it looks pretty obvious that the ÖVP set a trap for her and she's now tapping into it. Even though she's right ... (the coalition agreed on "religious neutrality of the state", so of course this means that not only religious clothing that covers the face gets banned, but also the crosses and other religious symbols in state buildings and by state employees).

[Tender Branson]

   In the new coalition agreement there was a chart about some modest changes to Austria's income tax law, with basically the taxable earning amounts going up with inflation.  I noticed that right after the first 11,000 (now going up to 11,500)euros which is income tax free, the next 8,000 euros are taxed at 25%, and then the next tax band after that is 35%.  So a lot of income earned by middle class Austrians would get taxed at those two rates.
     Has there been much discussion among the political parties about lowering these rates, or changing the amount earned that triggers these rates?

The tax rates have been lowered just last year, as part of an income tax cut - which led to workers having some 5-7% more in their pockets each month.

The inflation-adjusted "tax bracket creep" was now part of the new agreement.

You can read more about it here:

https://english.bmf.gv.at/Schelling_presents__Pact-fo__Austria_.html

Here's a chart:



Eliminating the tax bracket creep by adjusting it for inflation will save Austrian taxpayers about 1 Bio. € in taxes each year, but also reduces the revenues of the state government. On the other hand, people have more money to spend which means VAT tax revenues will increase.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ hits a new high in the latest Research Affairs/Ö24 poll:



Also, voters support most of the points that were agreed on by SPÖ and ÖVP in their coalition programme update:




http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Kern-Turbo-nach-Regierungs-Krise/267760374