Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Year-End OGM/Kurier poll:



From top to bottom:

"Did the following politician make a good or bad impression to you in 2016 ?"

Kern: 49-32 good

and so on.

"Was 2016 a good or bad year for you personally ?"

54% Good
30% Bad

and by party and age.

"Did 2016 turn out better or worse for you personally than imagined at the start of the year ?"

24% Better
20% Worse
54% As expected

and by party.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ parliamentary club leader Andreas Schieder said today that he prefers to limit postal voting as a part of next year's election reform package:

Schieder said he wants to limit postal/absentee voting "to only those who need it" (like Austrians abroad, elderly, sick and disabled people).

Schieder thinks that precinct voting is "the best way to enable a fully democratic and accurate result", with postal voting only a last resort. Much like the current system in the Netherlands.

He also wants to establish an early voting day, which would be held about a week before election day (mostly for those who are absent on election day).

Schieder also said that there might be a discussion about universal opening and closing times for every precinct (currently, each community can set their own opening and closing times, some even close at noon already).

The FPÖ was very quick to come out and applaud Schieder's opinions and said they look forward to debating the reform plans with the SPÖ next year.

On the other hand, the ÖVP wants to introduce e-voting (especially for Austrians abroad), which Schieder and the FPÖ strongly oppose.


http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5138993/SPOeKlubchef-Schieder-will-Briefwahl-eindaemmen

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP also favours an early voting day ahead of federal elections, according to news reports today.

This means it's rather likely that the introduction will be part of the election reform next year.

Some states such as Styria and Carinthia already have an early voting day for state elections (neither did this early voting day lead to higher turnout overall, nor did it lead to fewer people requesting postal ballots. It seems early voters are usual election day voters, who are voting early).

Still, I find an early voting day helpful. And limiting postal voting - like Schieder wants it - will be hard to pass, because the ÖVP is not convinced about it anyway.

The Greens are against limiting postal voting, calling it a "step backwards".

NEOS also wants an early voting day.

http://derstandard.at/2000049889971/OeVP-will-wie-SPOe-zweiten-Wahltag

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll, conducted recently for the "TT" newspaper:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12422444-91/gemischte-gef%C3%BChle-in-der-koalition.csp

[Tender Branson]

A new Tyrol state election poll, conducted recently for the "TT" newspaper:



http://www.tt.com/politik/landespolitik/12422444-91/gemischte-gef%C3%BChle-in-der-koalition.csp

So OVP-FPO likely?

Nope. Not at all.

The current state government is ÖVP-Greens and from what I understand (reading some Tyrol-related newspaper articles here and then) the coalition is doing a good job. The coalition climate is great as well, both parties are seen to be doing a good job by the public as well.

Therefore, a continuation of ÖVP-Greens is the most likely scenario after the 2018 election.

[Tender Branson]

So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

Municipal elections always have their own dynamics and the FPÖ always does much worse when compared with federal elections. I doubt they will get more than 25% in Graz, also because the Nagl-ÖVP is quite strong. The SPÖ is extremely weak and the KPÖ really strong. The Greens have a new leader there so they might not improve much.

I guess the results will not have much of an impact on federal politics.

Some background on why the Communists are so strong in Graz (15%) - (and to some extent in the state of Styria), but are below 1% in the rest of Austria:

Altruism and a strong advocacy for underpriviledged people

Every year, the KPÖ-politicians in Styria donate all their salaries above the average wage of a worker (1500-2000€ a month) to underpriviledged people.

For example, a KPÖ city council member would earn 6000€ a month - 14x a year.

But 4000-4500€ are going to people in need.



More than 100.000€ a year have been re-allocated to people in need, paying their daily food, hygiene products, pay their rents (which are increasing significantly each year), helping them with legal costs if they are forcefully evicted or to prevent them from being evicted and so on ...

Since 1998, the Graz-KPÖ has donated about 2 million € to people in need - a HUGE sum for a small city party.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The KPÖ is also virtually the only party that offers advice and legal council for people with precarious work, low wages and housing problems (historically a topic where the SPÖ outperformed). No wonder the SPÖ dropped from 70% in the 1970s to 12% now ...

More than 6.000 people asked the Graz-KPÖ for legal council and support in 2016 alone !

http://derstandard.at/2000049932532/Steirische-KPOe-vergab-100-000-Euro-ihrer-Bezuege-an-Beduerftige

[Tender Branson]

I did some calculations on the results of the Presidential elections on December 4, because I found something interesting:

* postal ballots are only counted on the district level, not on the municipal level.

So, for example, the city result for Zell am See (where I live) was 52.9% Hofer vs. 47.1% VdB

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1612-50628.html

But, according to the Salzburg state election page, the city of Zell am See had a huge number of postal ballots requested, a share much higer than the state and Austrian average.

821 absentee ballots were requested.

The district of Zell am See had a 87% return rate for absentees and 65% voted for VdB.

If we apply the 87% return rate for the 821 postal ballots, we'll get 714.

Of the 714, about 98.2% were valid.

That leaves 701 valid ones.

I assume Zell am See (more urban) had a higher VdB vote than the district as a whole (more like 67% like the state of Salzburg as a whole (69%), rather than 65% for the district).

So, in the end Zell am See voted something like this:

2.314 votes - VdB (50.1%)
2.306 votes - Hofer (49.9%)
   162 votes - invalid
4.782 votes cast

Turnout: 73.7%

...

So, while we don't know the exact result for the city of Zell am See, it was 50-50 (with a MoE of only about +/- 0.5% in either direction).

VdB gains about 2.5% with the postal ballots from the original city result.

[Tender Branson]

If we compare postal vote data from districts which voted similar to Zell am See, like the 2 suburban Salzburg districts of Hallein and Salzburg-Umgebung (Salzburg City suburbs), then it's even more likely that VdB won the city of Zell am See slightly with the help of postal ballots:

Both Hallein and Salzburg-Umgebung were won by VdB by 51% and 52%.

And their postal vote was 69% for VdB !

So, Zell am See (using the 69%) would have voted with around 50.4% for VdB.

I guess there's about a 90% chance that VdB won the city here.

[Tender Branson]

Based on postal votes, I guess at least Saalfelden (the biggest city in my district, with 17.000 people) also voted for VdB.

The original results (excl. postal votes) were already 49.7% VdB and 50.3% Hofer

If VdB gains an average of 2.5% from postals, Saalfelden voted around 52-48 for VdB.

Also, another town (Dienten) would have likely switched.

Most other towns in my district were pretty Hofer-leaning though (even though you also have to shave off around 2.5% from the Hofer-results there).

Which means, of the 28 towns in my district, it's very likely that 19 ended up voting for Hofer and 9 for VdB.

3 of the VdB towns were very likely won because of VdB's clear lead among postal voters.

[Tender Branson]

Map:

[Tender Branson]

STATISTICS Austria released some budget, debt and six-pack numbers yesterday.

It shows that debt as a percentage of GDP decreased from 87% to 84% in the 3rd quarter, which means debt peaked in the 2nd quarter. It is projected to decrease to around 83% for the end of 2016 and to around 80% by the end of next year. The HYPO bad bank and some others really pushed up the debt in the last 8 years. For example, in 2008 the debt was only at 65% of GDP.

Also, the budget deficit looks better than projected: At the start of the year, it looked like a 1.6% budget deficit. But using data until November, it is now likely to end up somewhere between 0.9% and 1.1%, roughly the same deficit as 2015 (which was 1% of GDP).

While the central government ran a bigger deficit than last year, the states, towns and social security all ran bigger surpluses than last year.

Therefore my estimates:

2016 Budget deficit: -1.0% (same as in 2015)
2016 debt as % of GDP: 83% (-2.5%)

The actual figures will be released at the end of March.

[Tender Branson]

10 lists have collected enough signatures to be on the Graz city council ballot:

* ÖVP
* KPÖ
* Greens
* SPÖ
* FPÖ
* Pirates
* NEOS
* WIR
* Einsparkraftwerk
* a woman called Tatjana Petrovic

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000050026294/Graz-Wahl-Neos-und-Wir-treten-zum-ersten-Mal-an

[Tender Branson]

Year-end Profil magazine poll, conducted by Unique Research:

34% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
19% ÖVP
11% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% Others

Chancellor vote:

31% Kern (SPÖ-incumbent)
17% Strache (FPÖ)
  8% Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
44% Others/None of them

The most important topics for Austrians in the year 2017 ?

23% Migration/refugees
20% Security
13% Unemployment
10% Taxes
10% Education

Will 2017 be better, worse or the same as 2016 for you personally ?

15% better
21% worse
58% the same

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/kanzlerfrage-kern-vorsprung-strache-7916991

[Tender Branson]

What's next ?

On Jan. 11, Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) will give a "major" speech on the economy and jobs and what the SPÖ will do about it this year.

He will do so in Wels, a big city which has elected a FPÖ-mayor for the first time in 2015. Apparently, this is to win back some FPÖ-voters.

It seems SPÖVP got their act together over Christmas and early elections are now unlikely this year. They'll likely find some way to last until 2018, the regular date for the next federal elections.

SPÖ and ÖVP will also have intra-party meetings over the next weeks to refine their positions on some issues. SPÖVP will then "update" their coalition working program and present their "work plan" for 2017 to the public at the end of the month.

According to the media, a lot will focus on the economy, jobs, taxes and security. But also education and pensions.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today.

First, the less interesting one - because it's already the third poll of the state in the past weeks.

Tyrol state election poll by GMK for the Bezirksblätter:



www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/politik/exklusiv-die-grosse-bezirksblaetterumfrage-zum-jahreswechsel-regierung-bleibt-hinter-erwartung-d1975874.html

---

Now the more interesting one, conducted by M+R Institute in the state of Lower Austria:

It first asked how Lower Austrians would vote in the next federal election, with the current party leaders:



Then it asked how Lower Austrians would vote if the leaders were Sebastian Kurz for the ÖVP and Irmgard Griss for NEOS:



And here are the actual results for Austria and Lower Austria in the 2013 elections:



These findings are really significant if true:

Notice that Kurz would not only double the current ÖVP-share if he were the new leader, but also get most new voters from non-voters/undecideds and the FPÖ. Also, the Greens are losing support, probably to the SPÖ and NEOS.

Adjusted for non-voters and undecideds, the Kurz-ÖVP would get almost 47% of the vote in Lower Austria. That is similar to Schüssel's landslide victory in 2002, when the ÖVP got 49% in Lower Austria and 42% Austria-wide ... !

http://www.noen.at/niederoesterreich/politik/sonntagsfrage-nationalratswahl-noe-umfrage-spricht-fuer-kurz/33.553.220

[Tender Branson]

Excluding undecideds and non-voters, the Austrian result with Kurz as ÖVP-leader would be something like this:

40-42% ÖVP (+22 compared with current polling !)
23-25% SPÖ (-4)
18-20% FPÖ (-15 !)
  8-10% NEOS (+2)
    6-7% Greens (-6)
    0-2% Others

[Tender Branson]

Muna Duzdar (SPÖ), the first Muslim cabinet member in Austria (she's of Palestinian origin), has visited Israel recently.

She praised Israel for being the "start-up country #1" and wants to bring some Israeli know-how to Austria.



http://derstandard.at/2000050161381/Duzdar-holte-sich-Tipps-der-Start-up-Nation-in-Israel

(when she became a Minister, the FPÖ subtly attacked her for being "anti-Israel" because of her Palestinian origins and also - subtly - because she's Muslim, even though she has often said that she's non-religious, but was only raised Muslim ... )

She's also a strong advocate for gay rights in the "It gets better" campaign and an advocate against hate speech on social media, but doesn't want to ban "fake-news" - calling it censorship.

[Tender Branson]

Excluding undecideds and non-voters, the Austrian result with Kurz as ÖVP-leader would be something like this:

40-42% ÖVP (+22 compared with current polling !)
23-25% SPÖ (-4)
18-20% FPÖ (-15 !)
  8-10% NEOS (+2)
    6-7% Greens (-6)
    0-2% Others

The FPÖ is already getting nervous it seems.

Their "party newspaper" - called "UNCENSORED" - (and the FPÖ's version of Breitbart), is attacking the poll as "crap":

https://www.unzensuriert.at/content/0022772-Proells-Hausblatt-NOeN-startet-mit-seltsamer-Umfrage-Mitterlehners-Sturz-durch-Kurz

[Tender Branson]

That's interesting. Sebastian Kurz is very young, he's only 30. Why is he so popular and poised to win the general election if he's elected OVP leader? Does his views about European immigrants have a big influence?

Aside from being very young and dynamic, he's also seen as a "doer" among Austrian voters and not a "talker" - like most other politicians are seen.

* He led the European initiative to close the Balkan route to migrants streaming in (something even Merkel had to acknowledge later on was a success and beneficial to Germany).

* He takes a tough stance against Turkish dictator Erdogan and Turkish agitation of pro-Erdogan supporters in Austria, calling on them "to fly home" if they refuse to integrate here.

* He called to end Turkish EU-membership talks, if dictator Erdogan refuses to uphold human rights by waging war against the Kurds, jailing political opponents and the introduction of the death penalty.

* He has led the way to an updated Austrian Islam Law, which cracks down hard on extremist Muslim interference in Austria from abroad (such as Saudi Arabia), which bans foreign funding of mosques and imams and mandates German to be spoken in Austrian mosques. The updated law btw also has several points strengthening Muslims and their faith such as the rights to halal food and pastoral care in the military.

* He has outlined a 50-point plan to better integrate migrants into Austrian society and workforce.

* He hosted US-Russian etc. peace talks about Syria in Vienna.

 * He is currently in the Donbass region of Ukraine as head of the OSCE to mediate between Russia and the Ukraine, which Austria took over on January 1.

* He advocates cutting any development aid for countries that are not willing to sign deportation treaties for rejected Austrian asylum seekers, such as Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Afghanistan etc. - countries that are considered mostly safe by now.

And so on ...

That's why he has 70% favorable/job approval numbers and is miles ahead of other politicians in these rankings.

[Tender Branson]

That's interesting. Sebastian Kurz is very young, he's only 30. Why is he so popular and poised to win the general election if he's elected OVP leader? Does his views about European immigrants have a big influence?

Aside from being very young and dynamic, he's also seen as a "doer" among Austrian voters and not a "talker" - like most other politicians are seen.

* He led the European initiative to close the Balkan route to migrants streaming in (something even Merkel had to acknowledge later on was a success and beneficial to Germany).

* He takes a tough stance against Turkish dictator Erdogan and Turkish agitation of pro-Erdogan supporters in Austria, calling on them "to fly home" if they refuse to integrate here.

* He called to end Turkish EU-membership talks, if dictator Erdogan refuses to uphold human rights by waging war against the Kurds, jailing political opponents and the introduction of the death penalty.

* He has led the way to an updated Austrian Islam Law, which cracks down hard on extremist Muslim interference in Austria from abroad (such as Saudi Arabia), which bans foreign funding of mosques and imams and mandates German to be spoken in Austrian mosques. The updated law btw also has several points strengthening Muslims and their faith such as the rights to halal food and pastoral care in the military.

* He has outlined a 50-point plan to better integrate migrants into Austrian society and workforce.

* He hosted US-Russian etc. peace talks about Syria in Vienna.

 * He is currently in the Donbass region of Ukraine as head of the OSCE to mediate between Russia and the Ukraine, which Austria took over on January 1.

* He advocates cutting any development aid for countries that are not willing to sign deportation treaties for rejected Austrian asylum seekers, such as Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Afghanistan etc. - countries that are considered mostly safe by now.

And so on ...

That's why he has 70% favorable/job approval numbers and is miles ahead of other politicians in these rankings.

WOW! That's quite a resume for a politician his age. I'm impressed. I wish we had this kind of politicians in my country. But Tender, is he really considering running for the leadership or is it just media speculation?

True.

I might actually consider voting for a Kurz-ÖVP (the first time in my life that I vote ÖVP) and abandon the Greens for once because of his achievements and spine that he's shown recently.

A Kurz-led ÖVP IMO is the best way to cripple the FPÖ, because many of the FPÖ's potential protest voters are only soft-core and could easily switch over to Kurz (as would many centrist Greens and NEOS-voters).

On the other hand, if he becomes ÖVP-leader he'd immediately face heavy attacks not only from the FPÖ but also the SPÖ and the NEOS.

Therefore, the timing as to when he becomes ÖVP-leader would be important too.

Anyway, the media is spinning a lot but Kurz has repeatedly said he's "not thinking about becoming party leader right now".

It will really depend what the ÖVP's sections and influential leaders will have to say over the next months, or if the Mitterlehner-ÖVP will get something done in the next months ...

[Tender Branson]

That's interesting. Sebastian Kurz is very young, he's only 30. Why is he so popular and poised to win the general election if he's elected OVP leader? Does his views about European immigrants have a big influence?

Aside from being very young and dynamic, he's also seen as a "doer" among Austrian voters and not a "talker" - like most other politicians are seen.

* He led the European initiative to close the Balkan route to migrants streaming in (something even Merkel had to acknowledge later on was a success and beneficial to Germany).

* He takes a tough stance against Turkish dictator Erdogan and Turkish agitation of pro-Erdogan supporters in Austria, calling on them "to fly home" if they refuse to integrate here.

* He called to end Turkish EU-membership talks, if dictator Erdogan refuses to uphold human rights by waging war against the Kurds, jailing political opponents and the introduction of the death penalty.

* He has led the way to an updated Austrian Islam Law, which cracks down hard on extremist Muslim interference in Austria from abroad (such as Saudi Arabia), which bans foreign funding of mosques and imams and mandates German to be spoken in Austrian mosques. The updated law btw also has several points strengthening Muslims and their faith such as the rights to halal food and pastoral care in the military.

* He has outlined a 50-point plan to better integrate migrants into Austrian society and workforce.

* He hosted US-Russian etc. peace talks about Syria in Vienna.

 * He is currently in the Donbass region of Ukraine as head of the OSCE to mediate between Russia and the Ukraine, which Austria took over on January 1.

* He advocates cutting any development aid for countries that are not willing to sign deportation treaties for rejected Austrian asylum seekers, such as Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Afghanistan etc. - countries that are considered mostly safe by now.

And so on ...

That's why he has 70% favorable/job approval numbers and is miles ahead of other politicians in these rankings.

WOW! That's quite a resume for a politician his age. I'm impressed. I wish we had this kind of politicians in my country. But Tender, is he really considering running for the leadership or is it just media speculation?

True.

I might actually consider voting for a Kurz-ÖVP (the first time in my life that I vote ÖVP) and abandon the Greens for once because of his achievements and spine that he's shown recently.

A Kurz-led ÖVP IMO is the best way to cripple the FPÖ, because many of the FPÖ's potential protest voters are only soft-core and could easily switch over to Kurz (as would many centrist Greens and NEOS-voters).

On the other hand, if he becomes ÖVP-leader he'd immediately face heavy attacks not only from the FPÖ but also the SPÖ and the NEOS.

Therefore, the timing as to when he becomes ÖVP-leader would be important too.

Anyway, the media is spinning a lot but Kurz has repeatedly said he's "not thinking about becoming party leader right now".

It will really depend what the ÖVP's sections and influential leaders will have to say over the next months, or if the Mitterlehner-ÖVP will get something done in the next months ...

Yeap... In politics timing is everything. Maybe he needs the current OVP leader to be "cooked on low heat" and if by the beginning of next year the party smeals power with him at the helm, it's time for him to step foward. 

Yeah, currently Kurz is teflon anyway when it comes to attacks from the SPÖ or the FPÖ (or even the pro-Mitterlehner people within the ÖVP).

Kurz can use the year 2017 to get an even better profile and resume and then take over as party leader in the spring of 2018, just a few months before the federal elections. In the spring of 2018, there are also a couple of state elections (in Lower Austria, Tyrol, Salzburg and Carinthia). If he campaigns there and the ÖVP gets good results (which is pretty likely considering current polls), his position would be strengthened even further.

Also, stuff like this helps:

Kurz is currently in Mariupol, Ukraine as head of the OSCE, which Austria took over on Jan. 1 and the media calls the visit

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/sebastian-kurz-an-der-front-in-der-ostukraine/239.095.639

[Tender Branson]

strange game.......kurz is against the russia sanctions but seemingly wants to support ukraine.....

How is that strange ?

Kurz assumed the OSCE leadership for 2017 from January 1.

"We need to build confidence in Europe again and move away from a system of punishment to a system of incentive," Kurz said in an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine.

Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine in 2014, a "bloc thinking" harking back to the Cold War has returned to Europe, Kurz said, adding "a trend reversal" in regard to Russia is required.

"We should relax the sanctions gradually, for any positive developments to happen on the ground," he told Der Spiegel, adding that he would use Austria's new chairmanship in Europe as an opportunity to push for such changes.

Austria is "a small but neutral country, which has geographically always been a bridge between the East and the West... We have to look for a dialogue with Russia, as there can never be peace on our continent without it," Kurz said.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-leader Reinhold Mitterlehner's daughter recently died because of cancer ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Mitterlehners-Schicksalsschlag-Tochter-starb-an-Krebs/264788487

[Tender Branson]

Tbf I support Ukraine, but oppose sanctions. The sanctions just hurt ordinary Russians and inflame nationalism even further - like most sanctions for that matter.

The sanctions against Russia are not really popular among Austrian business leaders and farmers, who export a lot of goods and food to Russia.

And business people and farmers are core constituencies of the ÖVP, so Kurz's move to end the sanctions step-by-step is understandable in the long-term if he really wants to become party leader next year. He needs all the intra-party support he can get.

[Tender Branson]

It seems tabloid "Ö24" switched pollsters, dumping Gallup and partnering with Research Affairs (which seems to be led by a former Gallup employee) ...

The new results are not really that different when compared with their last - Gallup - poll:



Also interesting:

By a 61-9 margin, Austrians say Sebastian Kurz should lead the ÖVP as frontrunner in the next federal election, rather than incumbent Reinhold Mitterlehner.

And asked about a Kurz-leadership, 61% say the ÖVP would benefit electorally, 21% say there would be no change and 6% say it would hurt the ÖVP.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Absturz-OeVP-im-Umfrage-Keller/264736058