Austrian Election Prediction Contest 2017

[Tender Branson]

The German election has one, so the Austrian shall get one too ...

On the ballot Austria-wide: SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, PILZ, Whites, FLÖ, G!LT, KPÖ+

On the ballot in some states only: CPÖ, M, EU-Exit, SLP, ODP, NBZ (their combined result will likely be less than 0.3% Austria-wide, as a starting point for your prediction below).

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

9.) Predict the next coalition.

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

As a starting point, here are the federal and state results for the 2013 election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election,_2013#Results

And as a clickable map:

http://wahl13.bmi.gv.at

Turnout was 74.9% in 2013 and 78.8% in 2008.

You can edit your prediction as often as you want, but I'm gonna close this thread on Election Day (October 15).

[Tender Branson]

Current polling (plus a margin of error of +/- 4% for each party):

32-34% ÖVP
22-27% SPÖ
22-25% FPÖ
    4-7% Greens
    4-6% NEOS
    4-6% Pilz
    0-2% G!LT
    1-4% Others

[Tender Branson]

The "super-cool" amongst you can also predict the Olympic Winter Games 2026 ballot initiative in Tyrol.

[Tender Branson]

The "super-cool" amongst you can also predict the Olympic Winter Games 2026 ballot initiative in Tyrol.

Doesn't matter, they're going to Sion

Maybe ...

A pro argument for Innsbruck 2026 would be the 50th anniversary of the 1976 Innsbruck Games.

On the other hand, Innsbruck has already hosted them twice - so they might give it to another city.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Carinthia such an SPÖ stronghold?

Carinthia has historically been a strong working class state with a lot of manufacturing and not as much agriculture/services industry as in other states. Which also explains the strength of the FPÖ/BZÖ there later on.

And a couple popular SPÖ governors.

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction (I'm historically not really good at predicting our own elections ... ):

29.1% ÖVP (+5.1) - 55 seats [+8]
28.2% FPÖ (+7.7) - 53 seats [+13]
22.3% SPÖ (-4.5) - 42 seats [-10]
  6.5% Pilz (+6.5) - 12 seats [+12]
  5.7% NEOS (+0.7) - 11 seats [+2]
  5.4% Greens (-7.0) - 10 seats [-14]
  1.5% KPÖ+ (+0.5)
  0.5% G!LT (+0.5)
  0.4% FLÖ (+0.4)
  0.2% Whites (+0.2)
  0.2% Others (-10.1) - 0 seats [-11, because of the TS)

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ+: 1.5%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

79.4% (+4.5)

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

SPÖ: Vienna, Burgenland (but only by a hair)
ÖVP: Lower Austria, Upper Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg
FPÖ: Styria, Carinthia

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

SPÖ: Burgenland, Voralberg
ÖVP: Tyrol, Carinthia
FPÖ: Styria, Burgenland
Greens: Vorarlberg, Burgenland
NEOS: Vienna, Burgenland
Pilz: Vienna, Burgenland

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP+FPÖ

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kern: will resign and do something else, like becoming manager of a company again
Kurz: will become Chancellor
Strache: will become Vice-Chancellor, even though Van der Bellen has concerns

BONUS:

Tyrol Winter Olympics 2026 Referendum: 54.2% Yes, 45.8% No

[Tender Branson]

David, you say that you expect PILZ to make it into parliament with 4.0% ... ?

4.01% ?



Also, you expect turnout to be 82%, which of course would be nice, but I assume it will be similar to Bavaria's (78%), or slightly higher. 80%+ would be cool though.

[Tender Branson]

Any last-minute predictions ?

I'll close the thread temporarily in about 3.5 hours before polls close.

[Tender Branson]

What does yes mean in the referendum? That the Olympic games will take place in Austria or not?

No, that the state of Tyrol will submit to the IOC an ecologically and economically sustainable proposal to host the 2026 Winter Olympics.

[Tender Branson]

What does yes mean in the referendum? That the Olympic games will take place in Austria or not?

No, that the state of Tyrol will submit to the IOC an ecologically and economically sustainable proposal to host the 2026 Winter Olympics.

I expressed myself wrongly. I meant, does yes mean that the Olympic games should take place in Tyrol. Obviously yes.

Can all Austrian cast a ballot for the referendum, or only the Tyroleans?

When do the polls close?

A) Only the Tyroleans.

B) At the same time as for the parliamentary election: 5pm

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP: 32.5%
FPÖ: 26.0%
SPÖ: 24.1%
NEOS: 5.2%
Greens: 4.9%
Pilz: 4.7%

Congrats.

It seems you had the best prediction ...