Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, does Preuner's victory in Salzburg indicate that as of yet there is no left-wing mobilization against the soon to be sworn in Kurz government?

ÖVP-Preuner's win yesterday doesn't really indicate much, because it was only a mayoral by-election. The 4 state elections early next year will be more indicative.

Some leftist groups have plans to disrupt the inauguration proceedings of the new ÖVP-FPÖ government though. But their numbers will likely be really small compared to the demonstrations against the ÖVP-FPÖ government inauguration back in 2000. I doubt that more than 5.000 people will show up in Vienna to protest them this time.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ coalition talks are steadily heading for a conclusion on Saturday, with an inauguration on Monday or Tuesday after final talks with VdB:

http://derstandard.at/2000070144769/Tuerkis-blaue-Koalition-soll-bis-Ende-der-Woche-paktiert-sein

Meanwhile, they have also agreed on a (compromise) package for the "Social Partnership". The FPÖ wanted to end mandatory unionisation/representation for workers and business owners (inititally the ÖVP as well). But the union wings of the ÖVP "convinced" Kurz that this is not an option, so the mandatory union membership of all employees and business owners in the Chamber of Commerce will remain.



But: ÖVP+FPÖ agreed to lower membership fees for both employees and employers. The employee unions/representations are warning though that lower membership fees could lead to a weakening of councelling for laid-off workers or who have other work-related questions.

For the employer side, it is good news because they have long asked for lower membership fees (or like NEOS and FPÖ, the complete abolition of representation/membership in the Social Partnership).

And not only that, employers got another goodie from ÖVP/FPÖ: the tourism industry's sales tax for stays/guests was reduced from 13% to 10%.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5336873/OeVPFPOe-einig_Kammerzwang-bleibt-Kammerumlage-wird-deutlich-gesenkt

[Tender Branson]

As the new ÖVP-FPÖ government is about to be sworn in, the old ÖVP-FPÖ-(BZÖ) government between 2000-2006 is back in the spotlight:

Today, another significant corruption trial against former Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser and several others started (the so-called "BUWOG"-case).



Grasser, once the youngest and most popular Finance Minister at the time and a rising star (similar to Kurz now), has been convicted several times already for corruption - but was always able to wind himself out of it like a snake. He's also a good talker and financial "genius".

His lawyers started with a motion to get another lead judge for the trial, which was dismissed.

Presiding judge Marion Hohenecker's husband, it turned out, posted an anti-Grasser song on his social media site.



Grasser might wind himself out of a conviction again, but this is definitely the hardest-hitting trial against him so far. Grasser is accused of steering 10 Mio. € in secret insider/bribery money to bank accounts in Liechtenstein during the 2004 sale of the BUWOG real estate agency.

http://orf.at/stories/2418595/2418597

[Tender Branson]

More updates on ÖVP/FPÖ coalition talks (which are almost completed):



* The number of ministries will remain at 14, with 2 state secretaries (but it's not clear yet if some ministries will get abolished or merged, while new ones are created) Also unclear is if both parties will get 7 cabinet posts each, or 8 for the ÖVP and 6 for the FPÖ.

* ÖVP/FPÖ have agreed that there will be no referendum on an Auxit during their term, nor will there be a referendum on CETA.

* Chancellor Kurz will take all EU/European-related issues from the Foreign Ministry with him to the Chancellor office - leaving the new Foreign Minister to deal with other global issues instead. This is important, because Austria will have the EU-Presidency in the 2nd half of 2018 and Kurz wants to be the leading figure in the final Brexit/EU-talks, rather than the new Foreign Minister.

* They also agreed to seek a new alliance among EU countries to end the Turkish EU-membership talks for good.

* Another agreement is that ÖVP/FPÖ favours an EU "subsidiarity model", which means the EU should only focus on important common issues such as securing the borders - but leave the member states alone and with more power on other smaller issues where the EU has no business in.

* President VdB has told Kurz that he wants the Interior and Justice Ministries to be held by different parties as a checks-and-balances measure (meaning that the ÖVP will retain the Justice Minister and the FPÖ will get the Interior Minister).

* Kurz will meet with VdB tomorrow for an update on talks.

* The last remaining point is direct democracy and how to best implement it (this is debated over the next days).

* Also still unknown: the new cabinet members

http://orf.at/stories/2418636/2418642

[Tender Branson]

Other news:

* The final parliamentary session with the outgoing government took place today. All 5 parties voted in favour of a pay freeze for politicians in 2018, but agreed on a 2.5% pay rise for civil servants.

* Parties also debated if the Job Creation Bonus (initiated by Chancellor Kern earlier this year and passed by SPÖVP) should continue or not. The same with the "Measure 20.000" for the creation of 20.000 new jobs for unemployed above the age of 50 (which was also passed by SPÖVP earlier in the year). Outgoing Chancellor Kern (SPÖ) strongly defended the measures and wants them to remain in place, citing that unemployment has fallen because of it. ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS are critical and think about scrapping them, because they now think that with the economy booming new jobs are created anyway and the state subsidies of these measures are a waste of money. Nonetheless, Austrian unemployment remains quite high at 5.4% - so these measures might help.

* In Carinthia, a "Team Kärnten" (= ex-Team Stronach) state MP has switched to the FPÖ. This is another sign that the next state parliament will only be made up of SPÖ, FPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, Team Kärnten and the BZÖ are all likely to be kicked out of the state parliament in the 2018 state election early next year. NEOS is unlikely to enter it. The Pilz List might not even run and the Green-splinter FAIR won't make it either.

* ÖVP/FPÖ are planning to introduce a national Glyphosate ban once they are in government, after the EU failed to pass it EU-wide.

http://orf.at/#/stories/2418724

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP and FPÖ have agreed on a tax credit of 1500€ per child annually, in addition to the tax cut for workers. This was a key campaign promise by Kurz.

On the other hand, the FPÖ has given up their opposition on CETA (they wanted a referendum) and the full smoking ban will be pushed back in time instead - allowing the status quo to continue with restaurant owners having to set up smoking and non-smoking areas.

The coalition contract is almost finished, a presentation is expected for Saturday.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5336254/OeVP-und-FPOe-einigen-sich-auf-1500-Euro-Kinderbonus

How big will the tax cuts by and when do they take effect.  Also is it across the board drop in rates or is it changing some individual brackets and which ones?

Impossible to say at this point, because virtually nothing has leaked from the talks on this issue so far. We need to wait for the coalition contract during the weekend, which is when they are going to unveil the new government. But both ÖVP and FPÖ said that the low and middle income groups will have the most tax relief.

On the other hand, ÖVP/FPÖ have agreed to introduce tuition fees for all university students again (500€/semester after the first 3 semesters are over, with a tax credit later on - mostly to keep German med students in Austria after they have finished their studies).

Currently, Austrian students + EU students have to pay no fees. Only foreigners from non-EU countries and those who are studying way past regular studying times.

http://derstandard.at/2000070372713/Tuerkis-Blau-will-Studiengebuehren-mit-Steuerbonus

[Tender Branson]

LOL, Van der Bellen's dog decided to interrupt the meeting with Kurz today:

[Tender Branson]

Kreisky was really anti-Israel, right? Hope Kneissl wouldn't be similar in that regard... Who is she, and what is her background?

Still interested in this.

She's a Middle-East expert and former diplomat, who grew up and studied in Israel and Jordan and who speaks 8 languages fluently: Hebrew, Arab, German, English, French, Italian, Hungarian and Spanish.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.kkneissl.com/en/about-me/pdf/cvenglKK2017.pdf

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks are successfully completed.

More tomorrow afternoon, when I'm sober again (at least I hope so).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks are successfully completed.

More tomorrow afternoon, when I'm sober again (at least I hope so).

Kurz/Strache to meet with VdB at 8.30am today, then the party committees will vote on the coalition contract between 10am and noon.

In the afternoon, K+S will introduce their new coalition, their common platform and the new cabinet members to the media and public at a big press conference @ the Kahlenberg.

VdB will then talk with every new cabinet member to get an impression and he'll swear in the new government on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

The new cabinet is now certain.

The FPÖ was successful in their demands, receiving the Interior-, Defense- and Foreign Ministry.

But the ÖVP will get 8 cabinet members, the FPÖ 6. Each party will also have one state secretary.

Except for Kurz, all cabinet members are new.

Kurz will become the World's youngest head of government on Monday.

Here are the 16 new cabinet members:

Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP, Chancellor + EUrope Minister)



Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ, Vice-Chancellor)



Hartwig Löger (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Finance)



Herbert Kickl (FPÖ, Federal Minister for the Interior)



Margarete Schramböck (ÖVP, Federal Minister for the Economy)



Norbert Hofer (FPÖ, Federal Minister for Transport, Science, Research, Innovation and Technology)



Gernot Blümel (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Arts and Culture, Constitution and Media)



Karin Kneissl (FPÖ, Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs)



Josef Moser (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Justice)



Beate Hartinger (FPÖ, Federal Minister for Labour, Health, Social Affairs and Consumer Protection)



Elisabeth Köstinger (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management)



Mario Kunasek (FPÖ, Federal Minister for Defence and Sports)



Juliane Bogner-Strauß (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Women, Families and Youth)



Hubert Fuchs (FPÖ, State Secretary in the Finance Ministry)



Heinz Faßmann (ÖVP, Federal Minister for Education)



Barbara Thaler (ÖVP, State Secretary in the Interior Ministry)

[Tender Branson]

The new coalition contract has ca. 200 pages and will be presented today at 4pm.

There's also a new Unique Research poll out today by "Profil" magazine:

31% ÖVP (-0.5)
27% SPÖ (n.c.)
26% FPÖ (n.c.)
  8% NEOS (+3)
  3% Pilz (-1.5)
  3% Greens (-1)
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

32% Kurz (ÖVP)
26% Kern (SPÖ)
14% Strache (FPÖ)
  4% Strolz (NEOS

Opinion on ÖVP/FPÖ's plans to scrap the introduction of a total smoking ban (which was agreed on by SPÖVP to enter into force in May 2018):

45% want the total smoking ban to come into force in May 2018
37% want the ÖVP/FPÖ policy & keep the status quo (= mandatory smoking/non-smoking areas)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/sonntagsfrage-oevp-neos-8576167

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

The new Minister for Education, Univ.-Prof. Dr. Heinz Fassmann, is 2.07 meters tall (~7 feet):



Fassmann is Professor for Applied Geography, Spatial Research and Spatial Planning at the Department of Geography and Spatial Research at the University of Vienna.

He's also Vicerector of Research and International Affairs at the University of Vienna and Managing director of the Institute for Urban and Spatial Research at the Austrian Academy of Sciences and Chairmen of the Commission for Migration and Integration Research.

[Tender Branson]

Both the ÖVP and the FPÖ party committees are currently voting on the coalition contract and according to the once-again-shaved Norbert Hofer they are doing so "with great joy".

Kurz will then deliver a short press statement at 1.30pm about the committee votes and then will head to Vienna's Kahlenberg mountain, where ÖVP-FPÖ will present the coalition contract and all cabinet members.

The location Kahlenberg mountain was a bit surprising to me because it was the major site during the 1683 siege of Vienna by the Ottoman invaders, in which the Turks got destroyed by the Austrian-Polish Christian-Catholic forces.

It is also the site where the so-called Identitarian far-right-wingers marched 3 months ago to commemorate the victory against the Ottomans:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5817838#msg5817838

[Tender Branson]

President VdB has announced his full approval for the new ÖVP/FPÖ government and intends to swear them in on Monday:

https://twitter.com/vanderbellen/status/941970275968614400

This is interesting, because VdB has said during the Presidential campaign that he'll oppose the FPÖ being in government.

But now he's going to swear them in, even Kickl and Kunasek (the 2 most extreme cabinet members).

With Kickl, it's almost as if Goebbels is becoming Interior Minister (Kickl is the rhetorically brilliant "brain" behind Strache, inventing all the FPÖ's campaign slogans) and with Kunasek (a soldier) someone from the SS becoming Defense Minister ...

[Tender Branson]

So Strache doesn't get a real portfolio? What will he be doing all day?

Strache will be Vice-Chancellor (which means co-ordinating cabinet meetings and talking to the press here and then, as well as co-ordinating between the government and the parliament).

Besides, it seems he'll get the sports portfolio and will be responsible for civil servants.

Plus, he'll remain as FPÖ-leader of course. With this, he probably has his work cut out.

PS 1: Barbara Thaler, who I mentioned above, will not become the ÖVP's State Secretary in the Interior Ministry. There has been a late scramble and the actual State Secretary will be Karoline Edtstadler. She's a judge and will look at Kickl's work in the Interior Ministry, just as Fuchs (FPÖ) will do so in the ÖVP-held Finance Ministry. Some sort of control mechanism.

PS 2: Both the ÖVP and FPÖ's party committees have just ended their debates and voting and both passed the coalition contract unanimously.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an overview of what ÖVP/FPÖ have agreed on (using Google Translate):

[quote]The turquoise-blue plan for Austria

"Time for something new", placated Sebastian Kurz in the election campaign. Heinz-Christian Strache wanted to do everything differently. Can the projects of the ÖVP and the FPÖ live up to this claim? Make yourself a picture.

1. Police are armed against terror and cybercrime

More police want to see the next government on the street. Every year, 2,500 to 2,800 police officers are to be trained. This not only aims to counteract the wave of retirements in the executive branch, but generally recruits more police officers. The job should be more attractive, also in terms of salary and education. The spreading cybercrimes are to be contained with its own Cybercrime Center. To combat terrorism, authorities should have easier access to messenger services such as WhatsApp. The exact legal and technical details of this plan are still unclear.

2. The illegal migration should be stopped

In the area of ​​asylum, there will be tightening under the coming government. The illegal migration should be stopped, the number of asylum seekers wants to lower so much. The border controls will be extended. For asylum seekers in primary care, there should only be more benefits in kind and no individual housing. The ÖVP and FPÖ also want to force deportations. In the case of legally convicted persons, deportation should be faster. Most recently, German Chancellor-General Sebastian Kurz, who has been in power, supported EU Council President Donald Tusk, who wants to say goodbye to the pan-European refugee quota. Which amounts to a turnaround in Austrian asylum policy.

3. The direct democracy is being expanded

The government parties agree that the direct democratic elements are being expanded. Successful referendums should lead from a certain number of supporters (which was controversial to last) necessarily to a referendum, the result of which would be binding for the policy. A plebiscite on the withdrawal of Austria from the EU is expressly not allowed. The Constitutional Court should also be given the role of a referee and decide which questions may or may not be submitted to a referendum. Their demand for a referendum on the Free Trade Agreement CETA has apparently been abandoned by the FPÖ.

4. The tax burden should drop significantly

Not yet known in the details are the plans for a tax cut. According to FPÖ boss Heinz-Christian Strache, it should be in a first step, a relief of small and medium income to 1900 euros from the year 2019. Later, according to Strache, there will be a general tax cut for everyone in stages. The long-term goal is to lower the tax and tax rate from the current 43 percent to 40 percent. Whether this succeeds until the end of the legislature is still open.

5. Family bonus of 1500 Euro per child

Families with children should be relieved of tax. A family bonus of 1,500 euros per child per year is planned. Until the child is 18 years old, the tax burden should decrease to 1500 Euro per year. Details are yet to be determined. The starting date of the family tax reform should be the beginning of 2019.

6. Less health insurance plans are planned

The number of health insurance companies should be reduced. There are currently 21 health insurance companies in Austria, plus a large number of health insurance companies from countries and municipalities. The government wants to significantly reduce the number of funds. Especially the health insurance funds are in their sights. The nine funds, where the workers and employees are insured, should be merged into one. This would already be possible with a simple majority in the National Council. For further mergers, such as the insurance company of the commercial economy and the social security of farmers, a constitutional amendment would be necessary.

7. 500 Euro tuition fees with "tax bonus"

An ÖVP-FPÖ government does not start with the introduction of tuition fees for the first time. That was already in the year 2000. From the winter semester 2001 they were raised. In September 2008, the tuition fees were abolished as Wahlzuckerl immediately before the election - with the votes of SPÖ, Greens and those of the FPÖ. This time, the coalition negotiators have apparently agreed to pay university fees from the third semester, so after the study entrance and orientation phase. It is planned to have a tax credit after graduation with the intention to keep the young academics in the country by doing so. A planned tuition fee of 500 euros per semester will be collected. Currently, long-term students have to pay 363.36 euros per semester. For some students from non-EU countries, the amount doubles.

8. The minimum income should be new

The minimum income is being redesigned. ÖVP and FPÖ want rules that apply throughout Austria. This is currently not the case. The ÖVP-dominated countries want stricter regulations than the red-green ruled Vienna. The models are the regulations in Lower Austria and Upper Austria. There, the full minimum income (844 euros for a single person) receives only those who had a main residence in Austria for five years in the past six years. For the others, there is a minimum light (572 euros). In addition, the minimum income is capped at 1500 euros. In order to create a uniform minimum income, the federal government must issue a fundamental law, on whose provisions the countries then have to comply.

9. The citizenship law is tightened

It concerns a peculiarity in the Austrian citizenship law, specifically the legal right to naturalization, which two groups of foreigners already have after six years: recognized refugees and persons who were born in Austria. Now the path to Austrian citizenship should become more difficult for them too. At the earliest after ten years, there should be the right to naturalization. The fact is: In almost no other EU country does this early naturalization claim exist.

10. More money for the army

The army gets - at least if it goes to the will of the FPÖ - significantly more money. By 2020, the army budget should rise to 3.1 billion euros. That would be almost a billion more than at present, and still provided for around 600 million euros more than in the previous budget path. For years it has been demanded that the budget of the army be raised to an internationally comparable level of one to two percent of gross domestic product (GDP). One percent would currently be 3.5 billion euros. The coalition parties are not yet clear on how to proceed with the Eurofighters. This question should be transferred to a working group.

(continues below)

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/der-tuerkis-blaue-plan-fuer-oesterreich-21773050

[Tender Branson]

The new cabinet members from the ÖVP:

[Tender Branson]

The new ÖVP-FPÖ coalition gets officially presented to the public and media right now.

Live stream (refresh in 5 minutes):

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Pressekonferenz-Praesentation-des-Regierungsprogramms/13943156

[Tender Branson]

The new coalition has just been presented by Kurz & Strache and both said they are looking forward to the next 5 years.



---

Here are portraits of all new cabinet members (just use Google Translate):

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/sebastian-kurz-31-und-schon-kanzler-21783922

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/heinz-christian-strache-vom-waldspieler-zum-vizekanzler-21784057

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/das-sind-die-neuen-ministerinnen-und-minister-21801613

And here:

http://derstandard.at/2000069820863/Die-Koepfe-der-neuen-Regierung-Portraets-der-moeglichen-Minister

---

Here is the full coalition agreement, called "Together. For our Austria.":

http://images.derstandard.at/2017/12/16/Regierungsprogramm.pdf

Here is an analysis of the major points in it (use Google Translate):

http://derstandard.at/2000070495198/regierungsprogramm-oevp-fpoe-kurz-strache-ueberblick-analyse

[Tender Branson]

So, tomorrow President Van der Bellen will talk with every new cabinet member for a while - which should take most of the day (considering there are 16 of them).

The swearing-in ceremony will be held on Monday @ 11am. In the afternoon, Chancellor Kurz will fly to Brussels to meet with Juncker & Co. to convince them that his new government won't be "soooo bad" after all as they expected ahead of the election.

On Tuesday, the first full cabinet meeting will take place. The new cabinet press speaker, Peter Launsky, will inform the media afterwards.

On Wednesday, the new government will appear in parliament for the first time and deliver their introduction remarks.

[Tender Branson]

 I was reading the direct democracy plank of the agreement and if I understood it correctly it proposes that in 2022 the parliament will pass an amendment allowing for a referendum on an initiative if it gets 900k signatures. If parliament doesn't pass it with the required 2/3 majority the government would put it to a referendum (so a referendum on whether to have more referenda).  Assuming the proposal passes it also means that the parliament could put a counter proposal on the ballot as well.  Also, a majority must vote for it, and one third of eligible voters is the required support threshold as well.  Is that accurate Tender?

That is correct, yes.

It will be interesting to see if they get the support of NEOS over the next 5 years to change the constitution with a 2/3 majority (and it's going to be very hard for them !).

Funnily, the ÖVP wanted a 10% threshold (=640K voters) for referendums and the FPÖ 4%, but they somehow settled on a compromise with 14% of eligible voters ...

[Tender Branson]

I like the fact that ÖVP-FPÖ wants to raise the minimum pension for those who have worked 40 years to 1.200€ a month, 14x a year.

Adjusted for the fact that Germans have no minimum pension at all and it's only paid 12x per year, the new pension model in Austria would see a minimum pension almost twice the size of Germany's initial/lowest pensions ...

A good signal to combat old-age poverty (a really big emerging problem in Germany right now).

[Tender Branson]

rob: Only time will tell ... (Kickl has been radical when it comes to FPÖ campaign slogans a few years ago, but has also moderated in terms of the newer slogans for the 2016 and 2017 elections).