Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

The pollster Akonsult did a poll (May 15-22) on EU-membership recently:

35% of Austrians favour an Auxit
56% want to remain in the EU



Austrians also oppose Brexit by a 58-37 margin.

They also think that Chancellor Kurz will benefit most from Austria's EU presidency, which will start on July 1st. 40% say Kurz will benefit most, 35% Strache and 25% Kern.

https://www.meinbezirk.at/land-oesterreich/politik/umfrage-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-will-keinen-eu-austritt-d2646425.html

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There's also a new election poll by Research Affairs for Ö24 (May 24-30, n=1003):



70% of voters favour the government's reform plans and mergers of the health care system, but most think that nothing will change really in favour of patients.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Aktuelle-Umfrage-Kurz-vorn-Krimi-um-Platz-2/335581150

[Tender Branson]

After OGM last week, the new Research Affairs poll also shows the possibility of a FPÖVP government in Red Vienna:

48% FPÖVP (+8)
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS (-10)
  4% Others (+2)

[Tender Branson]

Profil magazine/Unique Research poll:

78% of Austrians want recently-arrived foreigners (EU- & non-EU foreigners & asylum seekers) to get significantly lower welfare payments. Which is something the ÖVP-FPÖ government recently presented. Only 17% are opposed. 52% strongly favour lower welfare payments for foreigners, 26% somewhat. 8% are somewhat opposed and 9% strongly opposed.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oesterreicher-mindestsicherung-fluechtlinge-10107089

[Tender Branson]

A high-ranking FPÖ official in FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl's ministry has been exposed by the "Profil" magazine for uploading YouTube videos with the following model airplanes:



http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Manuel-K-FPOE-Mann-veroeffentlichte--Nazi-Flugzeug--Videos-45647266



Profil filed a lawsuit against the FPÖ-official for violating Austria's anti-Nazi laws.

No comment yet from Kickl, Strache & Co.

[Tender Branson]

A high-ranking FPÖ official in FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl's ministry has been exposed by the "Profil" magazine for uploading YouTube videos with the following model airplanes:

(picture)

http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Manuel-K-FPOE-Mann-veroeffentlichte--Nazi-Flugzeug--Videos-45647266



Profil filed a lawsuit against the FPÖ-official for violating Austria's anti-Nazi laws.

No comment yet from Kickl, Strache & Co.

Seriously?

This is a Messerschmitt Me 163 Komet and this is exactly how it looked like. I am all for punishing people who support the Nazi ideology and I think these people should be incarcerated, but this is something that doesn't even come close.

It was a legendary aircraft (one of the very little "good" things that came out of WW2), so I see no problem in having a model of the first ever rocket powered aircraft representing how it truly looked.

If this is what the Goverment considers as "Nazi", then I'm completely lost.

The exact plane on display in Berlin has a swastika on it

(picture)

The problem here is that the Messerschmitt model plane has a swastika on it.

Swastikas are banned under Austria's anti-nazi law (except when shown in museums or in film productions that are not used for nazi-propaganda).

Also, the combination FPÖ-official in the FPÖ-led Interior Ministry using a model plane with a swastika on it is ... tough. Without the swastika on it, it might be slightly different.

Also, the model you showed is likely in a German museum.

[Tender Branson]

Glad that the Austrian media are paying attention to the truly important things in politics. A good indication that FPÖVP are doing a great job if the media have to focus on non-news like this, though.

Well, they are doing a good job. Not on all topics, but by-and-large, yes.

The economy is doing great and the opposition is in shambles right now as well.

So, the media mostly focuses on "unique cases" such as these instead. Which is their job of course. And something that needs to be done. Even if there are only a few cases discovered by the media out of 1.5 million FPÖ or 2.5 million Hofer-voters, it's still annoying that some Austrian FPÖ-voters continue to hold these Nazi-views. The FPÖ could easily do a good enough job and still get high approval and polling numbers by getting rid of all Nazi-related stuff and only focus on systemic criticism and rule-of-law concerning immigration.

[Tender Branson]

Because obviously some FPÖ guy's little model airplane is a bigger problem and should be a bigger news story than the violent crime, welfare abuse, radicalization, and disrespect for our countries that have now become par for the course all over Western Europe, including Austria.

That's a valid argument.

But I would like to see both problems being limited close to zero.

The first problem needs to be tackled with a good (history) education and the second problem needs a constant, boisterous focus by the parties in our countries to keep dangerous foreign influences out (and not naive welcome policies by the Greens and other douches).

[Tender Branson]

Russian President Putin will be in Austria on Tuesday for a work visit ("50 Year Anniversary of Soviet gas delivery to Austria").

Chancellor Kurz, Vice-Chancellor Strache and President VdB and a huge economic delegation will meet Putin and discuss various topics with him. While Kurz will be all statesman-like, a good host, avoid hot topics and mostly talk about the economy, Strache will talk about ending the Russian sanctions (which he cannot end, it's an EU matter) and VdB will talk about the human rights abuses in Russia, Crimea, Syria etc.

Still, Putin really likes Austria these days: It is a bridge-builder between West and East and did not expel Russian diplomats after the Skripal-case.

https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5439786/Warum-Putin-gern-nach-Wien-kommt

[Tender Branson]

With Putin visting Vienna tomorrow, the highly popular and pertinacious Austrian journalist Armin Wolf (from the public ORF broadcaster) got the chance to interview the Russian President for an hour.



This interview will be broadcast on the ORF in roughly 1 hour during primetime (you can watch it here).

[Tender Branson]

While President VdB was quite sceptical of Putin today, Kurz and Strache had a blast meeting with Putin (... and yes, Kurz has an upside down map of Europe in his Chancellor office):

[Tender Branson]

All cabinet members of the ÖVP+FPÖ government took a plane* to Brussels today for a common council meeting (= school trip for grown-ups) there. This was done to prepare Austria's EU presidency, which starts on July 1st. Kurz/Strache & Co. then also met with Juncker & Co. - who praised the government this time (after attacking them in previous months).

* A constitutional expert called it highly dangerous and irresponsible that the whole government would be on board of the same plane, while the satirical "Tagespresse" wrote that "Austria's government is deporting itself".

https://derstandard.at/2000081070351/Mayer-Ganze-Regierung-in-einem-Flugzeug-grob-fahrlaessig

https://dietagespresse.com/keine-ausbildung-schlechte-deutschkenntnisse-regierung-schiebt-sich-ab

After the council meeting in Brussels, they said that their EU-presidency will focus on:

* Immigration and reforming the current asylum system (less immigration + better border control)

* Security/anti-terror measures

* Brexit talks

* West-Balkans EU-membership negotiations

* IT/digital topics

* The future EU budget

[Tender Branson]

The List Pilz is literally killing itself at the moment, like the Team Stronach or the BZÖ:

http://www.krone.at/1714770

Their total mess continues ... (text)

In a surprising turn of events, Peter Pilz has managed to return to parliament.

After MP Peter Kolba resigned his seat because of heavy party infighting recently, Maria Stern (a woman's rights activist and next on the list) refused to take her seat in parliament today. But for a good reason: By refusing the seat, it allows Pilz to return to parliament (after a few other seat shuffles, which are only a formality) and they have an agreement that Maria Stern will become the new party leader (while Pilz will become parliamentary group leader instead).



Martha Bissmann, the rogue MP who took Pilz's seat after his sexual harassment allegations, is the big loser in this recent, nasty intra-party fight: she will likely be thrown out of the List Pilz parliamentary group and will either serve the remaining 4.5 years as an Indy MP or resign her seat, so that someone else from the LiPi list can take her seat instead.

https://derstandard.at/2000081141096/Stern-macht-Weg-fuer-Pilz-frei-und-soll-Parteichefin-werden

IMO, the party is still badly damaged by all the twists and turns recently and the opposition is still attacking Pilz himself for his sexual misconduct allegations (they think that he's not fully cleared yet, despite the case being dropped by the state prosecution).

[Tender Branson]

A bar owner in Tyrol is being sued in court by the FPÖ (especially Strache and Hofer) for putting up the following sign on the entrance:



"We have to stay out."

(... a slogan that is typically used for signs at shopping centers to keep dogs out)

The FPÖ lawsuit would demand damages of 80.000€ from the bar owner, which would ruin him if he loses.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5440999/Strache-und-Hofer-klagen_80000-Euro-Prozesskosten-fuer-Tiroler-Wirt

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ starts cracking down hard on political Islam:

7 mosques will be closed immediately and more than 40 imams deported.

Press conference at 8am.

http://orf.at/m/stories/2441928

Excellent news.

[Tender Branson]

A new "Heute" newspaper poll (June 4-6, n=800, online+phone) shows the ÖVP+FPÖ government gaining significantly in popularity:

Approval rating:

58% approve (+8%)
36% disapprove (-9%)

By party:



Vote choice for federal elections:



Historical polling results:



Right or wrong that Austria supports the Russian EU-sanctions ?



http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/OEVP-unangefochten--Liste-Pilz-pulverisiert-SPOE-FPOE-Gruene-Wahlen-Umfrage-Sebastian-Kurz-Peter-Pilz-Heinz-Christian-Strache-Christian-Kern-49266808

[Tender Branson]

  I'm intrigued by the 28% of SPO voters who are somewhat approving of the government.

Well ... I'm one of them (voted SPÖ-Kern and approve of the new government).

[Tender Branson]

Next week, some changes in the Nationalrat and Bundesrat will take place:

After Peter Kolba stepped down as MP for the "List Pilz" recently, party founder Peter Pilz will return to the Nationalrat and be sworn in as an MP on Monday.

The "List Pilz" will then decide whether to kick out Martha Bissmann from their parliamentary group. Bissmann has refused to vacate her seat for the party founder, after he was cleared by the state prosecution from his sexual misconduct allegations.

On Wednesday, the new Salzburg State government (ÖVP-Greens-NEOS) will be sworn in. There will be hearings on Monday for the new government members, but this is only a formality.

Once the new Salzburg government is sworn in, this will also change the composition of the Bundesrat - the parliamentary chamber that represents the states, according to recent state election results.

The new (and final) composition in the Bundesrat after all state elections this year: 22 ÖVP, 21 SPÖ, 16 FPÖ (+4), 2 Greens (-2). "Others" also lost 2 seats.

[Tender Branson]

Next week, some changes in the Nationalrat and Bundesrat will take place:

After Peter Kolba stepped down as MP for the "List Pilz" recently, party founder Peter Pilz will return to the Nationalrat and be sworn in as an MP on Monday.

The "List Pilz" will then decide whether to kick out Martha Bissmann from their parliamentary group. Bissmann has refused to vacate her seat for the party founder, after he was cleared by the state prosecution from his sexual misconduct allegations.

On Wednesday, the new Salzburg State government (ÖVP-Greens-NEOS) will be sworn in. There will be hearings on Monday for the new government members, but this is only a formality.

Once the new Salzburg government is sworn in, this will also change the composition of the Bundesrat - the parliamentary chamber that represents the states, according to recent state election results.

The new (and final) composition in the Bundesrat after all state elections this year: 22 ÖVP, 21 SPÖ, 16 FPÖ (+4), 2 Greens (-2). "Others" also lost 2 seats.

Virtually all female MPs in parliament walked out today as Pilz was sworn in ...

Video of the walkout:

http://iptv.orf.at/stories/2442339



Only the female MPs from the List Pilz and Doris Bures (SPÖ) remained in parliament, because she's 3rd Vice-Speaker - but later sent out a statement clarifying that she also would have walked out, her duties aside.

[Tender Branson]

Next week, some changes in the Nationalrat and Bundesrat will take place:

After Peter Kolba stepped down as MP for the "List Pilz" recently, party founder Peter Pilz will return to the Nationalrat and be sworn in as an MP on Monday.

The "List Pilz" will then decide whether to kick out Martha Bissmann from their parliamentary group. Bissmann has refused to vacate her seat for the party founder, after he was cleared by the state prosecution from his sexual misconduct allegations.

On Wednesday, the new Salzburg State government (ÖVP-Greens-NEOS) will be sworn in. There will be hearings on Monday for the new government members, but this is only a formality.

Once the new Salzburg government is sworn in, this will also change the composition of the Bundesrat - the parliamentary chamber that represents the states, according to recent state election results.

The new (and final) composition in the Bundesrat after all state elections this year: 22 ÖVP, 21 SPÖ, 16 FPÖ (+4), 2 Greens (-2). "Others" also lost 2 seats.

Martha Bissmann won't be kicked out of the LiPi after all. Her group granted her "a last chance" and she agreed to the terms.

https://derstandard.at/2000081463945/Liste-Pilz-gibt-Martha-Bissmann-eine-letzte-Chance

In other news, Chancellor Kurz (who is in Israel right now to meet his buddy Netanyahu) has received numerous death threats from extremist Turkish Erdogan-backers recently after the mosque closings, deportations of imams and the stop to outside financing (mostly from Turkey and Saudi-Arabia).

https://stockholmcf.org/austrian-chancellor-kurz-receives-death-threats-after-targeted-by-turkeys-erdogan

And it also turns out that Erdogan's AKP is sending campaign letters to Austrian students, aged 11-14 (!) years, urging them to support him and tell their parents to vote for him. They have been directly sent from Turkey to Austrian schools, where they were intercepted. Wow, the guy must be desperate this time ...

https://derstandard.at/2000081454273/Aufregung-um-Erdogan-Wahlbriefe-an-Wiener-Schulen

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg state's new government (ÖVP+Greens+NEOS) and state parliament was sworn in today.

21 of the 36 state parliamentarians are new, incl. all from the FPÖ (and from NEOS of course).

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/neue-salzburger-landesregierung-und-neuer-landtag-sind-angelobt-29113522

And in the Austrian parliament, ÖVP+FPÖ ratified the CETA free trade treaty today (despite the FPÖ campaigning against it before the election).

http://orf.at/stories/2442656/2442658

ÖVP+FPÖ also have no intention to legalize gay marriage on their own earlier than Jan. 1, 2019 - which is when it will become legal by Constitutional Court order (hetero couples can also enter the more modern civil partnership union then).

https://derstandard.at/2000081475211/Regierung-will-Frist-fuer-Ehe-fuer-alle-verstreichen-lassen

[Tender Branson]

A few positive developments in the first months of the ÖVP/FPÖ-government:

* Deportations between Jan-May are up by 36% compared with the same time last year. Last year, 12.000 people were deported (or left voluntarily), so for the year it would mean some 16.000-17.000 deportations.

* On the other hand, new asylum requests are down by 40% between Jan-May. Still, some 24.000 requests are projected for the year, which would still be more than the number of deportations.

I think it would be better in the long run if there are more deportations than new requests. Maybe the government can get this done in the next years. Would be a plus in my book.

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, I think the deportation numbers are a key measurement for the FPO.  If they can deliver on this, plus a big reduction on new asylum cases, , they will have actually given their electorate much of what that electorate wanted by voting FPO.  Keep up the work on this, stay out of stupid neo-Nazi type scandals, and the FPO is probably in good shape for the next election.

Yeah, I agree.

If ÖVP+FPÖ are not making any big mistakes, it's likely they will be re-elected for another term.

But there's still a long way to go until the next election.

[Tender Branson]

A new Ö24 poll by Research Affairs (n=1.004, June 7-13, online) has the government gaining again:



In their March polls, the ÖVP was as low as 31% and the FPÖ as low as 22% - during their smoking ban controversy. They have since recovered to their 2017 election results levels.

Also:

88% of Austrian voters support ÖVP-FPÖ's recent announcement to close several mosques, deport up to 60 extremist, non-integrating imams and stop outside financing in a major effort to combat political Islam.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Aktuelle-Umfrage-Plus-fuer-die-Regierung/337337093

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll today (ATV Austria Trend), conducted June 4-11:

34% ÖVP (+2.5)
26% SPÖ (-0.9)
25% FPÖ (-1.0)
  8% NEOS (+2.7)
  4% Greens (+0.2)
  1% LiPi (-3.4)
  2% Others (-0.1)

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20180615_OTS0170/atv-oesterreich-trend-59-gegen-12-stunden-maximalarbeitszeit-alle-ergebnisse-heute-um-1920-uhr-in-atv-aktuell

59% of Austrians oppose the work-day-flexibility plan that ÖVP-FPÖ unveiled yesterday, which will expand max. working hours ordered by business owners to 12 per day and 60 per week.

[Tender Branson]

An excellent economic forecast by the Central Bank:

Austrian growth to stay above 3 pct this year, central bank says

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-economy-forecast/austrian-growth-to-stay-above-3-pct-this-year-central-bank-says-idUSV9N1JQ02L

The forecast already speculates with a balanced budget this year, thanks to the good economy (there will also be a big HETA bad bank re-payment in August, which will spill additional money into the budget because of the assets that are being sold from the former bad bank).

The government actually plans a small deficit this year and only a balanced budget next year, so reaching their goal one year earlier would be a big thing.

The forecast then estimates small budget surpluses for 2019 (+0.2% of GDP) and 2020 (+0.4% of GDP).

Job growth will be +2.2% this year, which means more than 100.000 new jobs created - while unemployment will fall below 5%.

Debt as a percentage of GDP will decline from 74% this year to 67.5% in 2020.

https://www.oenb.at/Presse/201806015.html