Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[Tender Branson]

What specific policies and actions has Orban taken that have led to him being referred to as authoritarian?

IMO not really his tough actions incl. border protection during the immigrant wave of 2015/16 (these actions were the common-sense things to do), but more his anti-liberalism on many social issues and his cronies from the business sector, who are owning big parts of the "independent" media and report very favourably about Orban (who in turn feeds them and their businesses with nice, generous government contracts). And his anti-semitism and Putin-love of course.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout up significantly so far ... until 7am:

2.24% have voted

Compared with other years:



But a meaningful trend won't appear until 1pm of course ...

[Tender Branson]

According to Hungarian polls, there's a HUGE age gap when it comes to voter preference:

Among young voters, 80% (!) support either Orban's FIDESZ or Jobbik.

Among older voters (65+), 55% support Fidesz+Jobbik - but 45% support center-left parties.

Which probably means that if turnout is higher today (70% or something), this could boost Fidesz and Jobbik (because younger voters are always less likely to vote than olds).

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

49% Fidesz
19% Jobbik
32% Various center-left/liberal/green/satire parties

Fidesz wins a huge majority of seats.

[Tender Branson]

9am turnout remains higher than in all previous elections:

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout by region:



But the 1pm numbers will be better to see if there's a trend towards significantly higher turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

Not that surprising:

In most EU elections recently, turnout increased (except in France and Italy).

This has to do with the migrant situation in the West i guess and because people get wealthier in the East and are therefore more likely to participate in the democratic process than before.

[Tender Branson]

The 1pm numbers are out and there's definitely a trend towards higher turnout (+8% compared with 2014 and the highest in any election so far):



Turnout could reach 70-72% at the end of the day, if trends continue.

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout by district:



Budapest and suburbs stick out + the area around Rözke in the south-east on the border to Serbia, where the migrants streamed into the country until the border fence was built.

[Tender Branson]

53.6% turnout at 15:00, still higher than in any other general election from 2002 onward.

Chart:



Still heading towards 71-73% at the end of the day.

By district:



Turnout is now strongest in Budapest + suburbs and along the Austrian border (west) and Slovakia (north) and at the border crossing to Serbia (south east).

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5:00 was sitting at 63.21%.

This is not comparable with previous elections though, because it was measured at 17:30 in those.

But it's still on track for 70-71%.

[Tender Branson]

I remember hearing that there was one poll that claimed that if turnout was exceptionally high, there was a small chance of Fidesz actually losing its majority. Is that true or is Orban guaranteed to get a majority no matter what?

Also, when do polls close?

19:00

[Tender Branson]

"people still queuing for hours ..."

... in only a 70% turnout election.

LOL.

Unimaginable for Austrians or Dutch people. I have never waited more than 1 or 2 minutes for voting (before I switched to postal voting).

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983047303496945664

I read that the election reporting website was offline for most of the day and that information about voting precincts and where to vote was not available because of it.

Maybe this is what the "incidents" are referring to.

But the government said the website simply collapsed because of strong traffic at the same time.

[Tender Branson]

I think I call it quits (this will take a few more hours).

Here, everything would be 100% counted already and people could go to bed.

With 10% more turnout.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

49% Fidesz
19% Jobbik
32% Various center-left/liberal/green/satire parties

Fidesz wins a huge majority of seats.

Wow, a stunning prediction.

Currently 48.8, 19.5, 31.7

[Tender Branson]

I think I call it quits (this will take a few more hours).

Here, everything would be 100% counted already and people could go to bed.

With 10% more turnout.

didn't your country have to re-run an election recently because of incompetence?

No, only because the FPÖ was bitching around and the court found some sloppiness (which is not incompetence).

Anyway, because of that court ruling the elections are now conducted even better - so it wasn't all too bad that we had to repeat it.

Still, my point stands: We close at 5pm and have 80% turnout.

And Hungary closes at 7pm and it takes past midnight to have a final result out and there are long lines in Budapest, which is not the case here.